The United Nations Office at Geneva
Multimedia Newsroom
UNCTAD calls for IMF, World Bank measures as global downturn bites
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been the “main contributing factor” to the potentially devastating one per cent drop in projected global economic growth this year, UN development economists UNCTAD said on Thursday, in the body’s latest global economic update.
“The main headline is a downgrading of the projection for global growth this year,” said Richard Kozul-Wright, Director, UNCTAD Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, speaking in Geneva. “We anticipated back in September of last year that the global economy would grow by around 3.6 per cent. We expect it to grow by 2.6 per cent this year and of course, the main contributing factor to that, is the war in Ukraine.”
Trillion-dollar debt
With inflation on the rise and developing countries already weighed down by a $1 trillion debt burden to pay back to creditors, the UN body decried the inadequate financial measures already taken to help them withstand exchange rate instability, rising interest rates and soaring food and fuel prices.
Wholesale multilateral fiscal reform - possibly on the scale and ambition of the US Marshall Plan that shouldered Western Europe following the Second World War - is urgently needed to improve the financial liquidity of developing countries to prevent them - and even middle-income countries - from potentially going under, UNCTAD insisted, as it appealed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank.
Emergency measures call
“There is a rapidly worsening outlook for the world’s economy and to think that this year, the year after two years of crisis with COVID-19, the average rate of growth of the world economy will be 2.6 per cent, down from 5.5 per cent last year, and down from the projections that were made in the last quarter of 2021,” said Rebeca Grynspan, UNCTAD Secretary-General.
In particular, Ms. Grynspan called for “emergency measures from the IMF and World Bank”, namely the activation of rapid funding instruments which IMF can provide to help countries with looming balance of payments problems.
“Conditions are worsening for everybody,” continued the UNCTAD chief, noting how the climate crisis has played its part, along with successive droughts in the Horn of Africa, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine.
Even relatively wealthy countries that are struggling with multiple cost-of-living pressures have already sought help from the international system to keep them afloat.
“Pakistan went back (to the IMF) at the end of last year,” said Mr. Kozul-Wright. “Sri Lanka has now gone to the IMF to organise a programme. Egypt, which was already under a programme, has gone back to the IMF to renegotiate. And these are countries – these are not least developed countries, these are middle-income countries that are under very serious economic and in some cases political pressure, as a consequence of the shocks that they now face.”
Importer woes
But it is the world’s poorest, import-dependent countries that will be worst-hit by the global economic downturn, UNCTAD insisted.
“The brunt is being carried by the developing countries because of the rise in prices of food, of energy and fertilisers that is very steep and also the financial stretch under which the developing countries are already under,” said Ms. Grynspan.
Although “all regions of the global economy will be adversely affected by this crisis”, Mr. Richard Kozul-Wright, suggested that “high commodity exporters” were likely to do well from a rise in prices. “But the European Union will see a fairly significant downgrade in its growth performance this year, but so parts of central and southern Asia as well,” he said.
UNCTAD’s policy recommendations include the need for global financial reform to allow developing countries the economic space for “reasonable growth” so that they can service potentially crippling debt levels.
“Debt servicing in 2020 for developing countries excluding China was already $1 trillion, that was the kind of financial pressure that developing countries are in,” Mr. Richard Kozul-Wright said. “We know and we have argued in the past that the initiatives from the G20, the Debt Service Suspension Initiative is welcome, we welcomed it, but it was clearly insufficient, it provided something of the order of $11 billion for the countries that were eligible.”
ends
SHOTLIST
- Cutaway.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH): Richard Kozul-Wright, Director, UNCTAD Division on Globalization and Development Strategies: “The main headline is a downgrading of the projection for global growth this year, we anticipated back in September of last year that the global economy would grow by around 3.6 per cent. We expect it to grow by 2.6 per cent this year and of course, the main contributing factor to that, is the war in Ukraine.”
- Cutaway.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH): Rebeca Grynspan, UNCTAD Secretary-General: “There is a rapidly worsening outlook for the world’s economy and to think that this year, the year after two years of crisis with COVID-19, the average rate of growth of the world economy will be 2.6 per cent, down from 5.5 per cent last year, and down from the projections that were made in the last quarter of 2021.”
- Cutaway.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH): Rebeca Grynspan, UNCTAD Secretary-General: “We are asking for the strengthening of the measures that will help developing countries to cope with this situation and we need emergency measures from the IMF and World Bank. It’s very important to activate the immediate funding, the rapid funding instruments that the IMF has. The conditions are worsening for everybody, because on top of the problem of climate change and the IPCC report was mentioned, and you have been seeing these days, you know, the reports on the Horn of Africa and the drought that is really affecting these countries. On top of that we have still the consequences of COVID-19. We are not yet in a post-COVID era. You are seeing what is happening in now in China where new lockdowns are being put in place and on top of that, we have the war in Ukraine.”
- Cutaway.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH): Richard Kozul-Wright, Director, UNCTAD Division on Globalization and Development Strategies: “Already, countries are going back to the IMF, Pakistan went back at the end of last year, Sri Lanka has now gone to the IMF to organise a programme; Egypt, which was already under a programme, has gone back to the IMF to renegotiate. And these are countries – these are not least developed countries, these are middle-income countries that are under very serious economic and in some cases political pressure, as a consequence of the shocks that they now face.”
- Cutaway.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH): Rebeca Grynspan, UNCTAD Secretary-General: “The brunt is being carried by the developing countries because of the rise in prices of food, of energy and fertilisers that is very steep and also the financial stretch under which the developing countries are already under.”
- Cutaway.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH): Richard Kozul-Wright, Director, UNCTAD Division on Globalization and Development Strategies: “All regions of the global economy will be adversely affected by this crisis, some more than others. And of course there will be winners, particularly high commodity exporters like the commodity exporters. But the European Union will see a fairly significant downgrade in its growth performance this year, but so parts of central and southern Asia as well.”
- Cutaway.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH): Richard Kozul-Wright, Director, UNCTAD Division on Globalization and Development Strategies: “Debt servicing in 2020 for developing countries excluding China was already $1 trillion, that was the kind of financial pressure that developing countries are in. We know and we have argued in the past that the initiatives from the G20, the Debt Service Suspension Initiative is welcome, we welcomed it, but it was clearly insufficient, it provided something of the order of $11 billion for the countries that were eligible.”
Similar Stories
1
1
1
Edited News | FAO , UNHCR , WHO
Sudan: 14 million displaced; hunger and attacks on health continue as war enters fourth year
As Sudan approaches the third anniversary of a brutal civil war, millions remain displaced and hungry while the health system lies in ruins, with no end to the violence in sight, UN agencies said on Friday.
1
1
1
Press Conferences
Alessandra Vellucci, Director of the United Nations Information Service (UNIS) in Geneva, chaired the hybrid briefing, which was attended by spokespersons and representatives from the World Food Programme, UN Women, World Health Organization, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, and the Food and Agriculture Organization.
1
1
1
Edited News | WHO , UNHCR , WFP
Lebanon: People ‘still under the rubble’ after massive strikes as ambulances, hospitals come under threat – UN humanitarians
With Lebanon still reeling from Israel’s devastating airstrikes on 8 April, UN humanitarians reported new fears of attacks on ambulances and looming food shortages in the south of the country on Friday.
1
1
1
Press Conferences | UNHCR , WHO
Alessandra Vellucci, Director of the United Nations Information Service (UNIS) at Geneva, chaired a hybrid press briefing, which was attended by spokespersons and representatives of the World Health Organization and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
1
1
1
Edited News | UNHCR , WHO
Lebanon: disease risks on the rise as displacement surges
With displacement in Lebanon past the one million mark, UN humanitarians warned on Tuesday about the spread of infectious diseases in shelters and surging mental health needs.
1
1
1
Edited News | UNIFIL
UN peacekeepers are supporting civilians who’ve chosen to stay in the south amid deadly dangers from Israel-Hezbollah clashes, UNIFIL spokesperson Kandace Ardiel tells us.
1
1
1
Edited News | UNHCR , WFP
Middle East war fallout: Hundreds of thousands flee Lebanon to Syria; vital food aid blocked – UN agencies
The trauma of mass displacement and humanitarian supply chain disruptions throughout the world are among the devastating impacts of the war raging in the Middle East, UN humanitarians warned on Tuesday.
1
1
1
Press Conferences | IOM , UNHCR , UNOG , WFP
Alessandra Vellucci, Director of the United Nations Information Service in Geneva, chaired a hybrid press briefing, which was attended by the spokespersons and representatives of the United Nations Refugee Agency, the World Food Programme, and the International Organization for Migration.
1
1
1
Press Conferences | UNRWA
End-of-tenure press briefing by the outgoing UNRWA Commissioner-General, Philippe Lazzarini
1
1
1
Edited News | UNRWA
Bitterness, sadness and pride for UNRWA staff, says departing chief
Asking the softly spoken, veteran humanitarian worker Philippe Lazzarini how he feels as he comes to the end of his second term as the head of the UN agency for Palestinians, UNRWA, is perhaps an unfair question.
1
1
1
Edited News | IFRC , UN WOMEN , UNHCR , UNICEF , WHO
Middle East war causes civilian terror and disrupts aid, but some relief efforts resume.
1
1
1
Press Conferences | UNICEF , UN WOMEN , UNHCR , IFRC , IOM , WHO
Alessandra Vellucci, Director of the United Nations Information Service in Geneva, chaired a hybrid press briefing, which was attended by the spokespersons and representatives of the United Nations Refugee Agency, the United Nations Children’s Fund, the World Health Organization, the International Organization for Migration, UN Women, and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.