US tariffs move could see three per cent fall in global trade, says top UN economist
Global trade could shrink by three per cent as a result of the United States’ new tariff measures which in the longer term could reshape and boost as-yet untapped regional commercial links, a top UN economist confirmed on Friday.
“There will be shifting, I think, in supply chains, there will be a reassessment of global alliances. There will be geopolitical shifts and economic as well,” said Pamela Coke-Hamilton, head of the International Trade Centre (ITC).
Speaking in Geneva after Wednesday’s announcement by the White House of a 90-day pause on “reciprocal tariffs” for most countries with the exception of China, Mrs. Coke-Hamilton noted that exports from Mexico had already been “highly impacted” by earlier seismic changes to US trade policy.
“Countries like Mexico, China and Thailand, but also countries in southern Africa are among the most affected, alongside the US itself,” she said.
While the 90-day pause on the so-called reciprocal tariffs applies to imports from most countries and brings down rates to a still hefty 10 per cent, tariffs on imports from China currently stand at 145 per cent.
China, meanwhile, has raised tariffs against US exports – in effect import taxes on goods – to 125 per cent.
Already, Mexico’s products for export have shifted away from markets such as the US, China, Europe and other Latin American countries to make “modest gains” instead in Canada, Brazil “and to a lesser extent, India”, the ITC chief insisted.
Other countries have followed suit, including Vietnam, whose exports “are redirecting away from the US, Mexico and China”, while “increasing substantially” towards the EU, South Korea and others, said Mrs. Coke-Hamilton, whose UN specialised agency offers assistance to developing countries.
The problem for emerging economies is that they are less well equipped to “pivot” when faced with “instabilities”, the ITC chief explained, since they often lack the manufacturing diversity and ability to add value to raw commodities of more industrialized nations.
Especially vulnerable trading partners of the US include Lesotho, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Madagascar and Myanmar that are “the most exposed”, she continued.
Confirming that the World Trade Organization (WTO) had estimated that commerce between China and the US could drop by up to 80 per cent if the highly unusual situation continues, the ITC Executive Secretary pointed out that they constituted only “three per cent to four per cent of world trade…(so) there's 96 per cent out there that's still trading and that will trade”.
Nonetheless, the impact of the “indeterminate extension of 90 days on and on” has not been good for global commerce and “does not necessarily lend itself to stability”, Mrs. Coke-Hamilton continued.
“Irrespective of whether there is an extension, on and on, the fact that there is no stability, there's no predictability will affect trade and firms and decisions that are being made in real time.”
She added: “This wouldn't be the first time that there have been tremors in the world economic system. We've seen it over the last 50 years in different dispensations. This one is probably a little more harsh, a little more tremulous.”
STORY: Tariff uncertainty and potential - ITC
TRT: 03’11”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
DATELINE: 11 APRIL 2025 GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
Speakers:
SHOTLIST
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
The telecommunications shutdowns in Afghanistan in September had serious and far-reaching impacts on people’s lives, according to a briefing paper published today by the UN Human Rights Office and the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
UN Human Rights Office spokesperson Jeremy Laurence at the UN Geneva press briefing made the following comment on the ASEAN declaration on the right to a healthy environment.
1
1
1
Edited News | IFRC , OCHA , WMO
‘Catastrophic’ Hurricane Melissa hours from landfall in Jamaica as humanitarians rush to save lives
Millions in Jamaica and across the Caribbean are bracing for massive impact from Hurricane Melissa on Tuesday as the UN and partners are warning of a “severe” and “immediate” humanitarian threat.
1
1
Edited News | WHO
‘We need all routes to open’: in Gaza WHO calls for ramp-up of medevacs, easier access for essentials
Two weeks since a ceasefire agreement entered into force in Gaza the World Health Organization (WHO) noted progress on the flow of aid while calling for more evacuations of critical patients and eased entry for essential medicines and supplies.
1
12
1
1
Edited News | WMO , UNITED NATIONS
UN chief urges boost to life-saving weather warning systems, stresses role of climate change science
No country is safe from the devastating impacts of extreme weather — and saving lives means making early-warning systems accessible to all, UN chief António Guterres said on Wednesday.
1
1
1
Edited News | WFP
Gazans’ response to food distributions ‘overwhelming’ as humanitarians scale up under fragile ceasefire
In Gaza, the ceasefire is enabling UN humanitarians to reach more desperate people with life-saving food, but greater access is needed to contain the spread of famine.
1
1
1
Edited News | WFP , OCHA
UN urges opening of all Gaza crossings to deliver three-month food supply
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has warned food aid cannot reach everyone in Gaza unless all border crossings are opened, particularly in the north where famine was declared in August. The agency says it already has enough supplies in place to feed the entire population of the Strip for three months – if full access is granted by Israel.
1
1
1
Edited News | UNDP , UNICEF , OCHA , ICRC
Around $70 billion will be needed to reconstruct Gaza and make it safe after two years of war, UN development experts said on Tuesday, while aid agencies reported that far too little aid continues to reach desperate Palestinians.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR
The UN human rights office, OHCHR, on Friday welcomed the Nobel Peace Prize committee’s decision to name Maria Machado as this year’s laureate, in recognition of her work promoting the Venezuelan people’s democratic hopes.
1
1
1
Edited News | UNRWA , UNICEF , WHO
As Gazans jammed the main route leading north on Friday after a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas was announced, UN aid teams repeated their call to open all crossings into the devastated enclave to prevent famine spreading.
1
1
1
Edited News | OCHA , UNICEF , WHO
Two years of Gaza-Israel war bring ‘indescribable’ pain: UN humanitarians
Two years since the Hamas-led terror attacks on Israel, UN humanitarians on Tuesday reiterated calls for the release of all hostages in Gaza, an immediate ceasefire and an aid surge to alleviate Palestinians’ suffering, as talks on a US-driven peace plan continued in Egypt.
1
1
1
Edited News
Syria prison survivor seeks justice for the missing with UN backing.