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Since the start of the Middle East conflict with Israeli and US strikes on Iran on 28 February, concerns have been growing over rising oil and commodity prices. At the centre of it lies the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints – which carries around a quarter of global seaborne oil, along with significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilisers, according to a recent UN report. To better understand the implications of this disruption, and the findings of the report published on 10 March, UN News spoke to Frida Youssef, Chief of Transport Section at UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Worldwide consequences
Ms. Youssef explained that the traffic in the Strait where the Persian Gulf narrows has fallen from around 130 ships a day before the crisis to single digits in early March, a decline of more than 95 per cent. Today, the Strait is not formally closed, but severely constrained, amid multiple Iranian attacks on shipping since war erupted that have spooked global energy markets and driven up prices.
Spillovers beyond Hormuz
“The disruption is no longer confined to the Strait of Hormuz; it is spreading across regional shipping routes and affecting critical supply lines” Ms. Youssef explained. The knock-on effects of this disruption are being felt across the Red Sea and beyond, with vessels rerouted, journeys extended and costs rising. This is adding pressure to global trade and humanitarian agencies who face slower, more expensive and less predictable aid shipments.
Impact on economies and citizens
While the immediate fallout of the Hormuz Strait crisis has meant higher energy costs, more expensive transport, rising food prices and delays in supply chains, the drop in regional fertiliser exports threatens to have extremely serious consequences, too. UNCTAD underlines rising production costs for fertilisers and particularly nitrogen-based ones, which depend heavily on gas originating from Gulf States. This is already putting pressure on agricultural production and productivity, with likely consequences for global food prices. “Timing is critical,” says UNCTAD’s Ms. Youssef.
Least-able to cope
“It is now the spring planting season, when countries and farmers typically purchase fertilizers for the next harvest. If they are unable to secure enough supply — or if prices are too high — crop yields could decline.” The world’s least developed economies have “the least capacity to absorb shocks (and) are the ones that will feel the effects most strongly”, she continues. For them, higher costs for fuel, food, fertilisers and transport could quickly translate into pressure on public finances and household budgets. This can reduce food production and increase food insecurity, particularly where import dependence is high.
How the UN can help
Despite all these challenges,“there is a shared global interest in keeping trade routes open, because disruptions of this scale affect all economies”, Ms. Youssef insists. UNCTAD is monitoring developments closely and providing data and analysis to support governments, she explains. The UN agency also helps to bring together national governments and partners to share information and coordinate their actions, while stressing the importance of keeping maritime transport secure and predictable, in line with international law.
STORY: Strait of Hormuz crisis - UNCTAD
TRT: 2’15”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH/NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
DATELINE: 23 MARCH 2026 GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
1. Exterior wide shot: Palais des Nations, Flag Alley.
2. Graphic explaining the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for world trade. Credit UNCTAD
3. Graphic showing the drop of passage in the Hormuz Strait. Credit UNCTAD
4. SOUNDBITE (English) – Frida Youssef, Chief of Transport Section at UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD): “Just before the crisis, when we look at the average daily number of vessels that were going through the Hormuz, it was around 129, (1)30 a day and, over the past two weeks, it was about two to seven vessels per day.”
5. Graphic showing the freight costs for shipping oil soaring to historic highs. Credit UNCTAD
6. SOUNDBITE (English) – Frida Youssef, Chief of Transport Section at UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD): “There are four channels through which this disruption is being transmitted: first is the energy, given the importance, like I said, of the Strait in terms of energy supply, this is translating into an increase in fuel cost.”
7. Graphic showing the gas prices going up and with them the price of fertilizer. Credit UNCTAD
8. SOUNDBITE (English) – Frida Youssef, Chief of Transport Section at UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD): “Export of fertilizer is being impacted from the region as well as the price and the price of producing, for example, nitrogen fertilizers that rely also heavily on gas. So, this is again translating into an impact on agricultural production as well as agricultural productivity, which would be translated later on into food price.”
9. Graphic showing surging war risk insurance premiums. Credit UNCTAD
10. SOUNDBITE (English) – Frida Youssef, Chief of Transport Section at UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD): “We've seen fuel price of shipping doubling, you know, the bunker fuel price, the marine fuel that is used by ships and vessels is increasing. This is having also impact on the transport cost, not only the price of fuel but also the price, for example, of insurance. War insurance premiums have increased, in some cases also it quadrupled.”
11. Graphics show how the cost of marine fuel has increased. Credit UNCTAD
12. SOUNDBITE (English) – Frida Youssef, Chief of Transport Section at UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD): “It's affecting transport, its affecting energy, it's affecting food and also cost and availability of all these. So, these all together would have an impact on the public finances of countries, as well as cost of living and household.”
13. Graphic showing the oil prices increasing alongside the price of food. Credit UNCTAD
For more please see the report: Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Implications for global trade and development | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
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The key findings from WMO’s State of Global Water Resources 2025 report covering the hydrological cycle and extreme events in the five-year period to last year:
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- Water data availability has improved, but gaps remain in hard-hit areas
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Groundwater reserves are equally stretched and have been in decline since 2014, WMO’s report states, with nearly two-thirds of monitored wells worldwide showing levels lower than the historical norm and indicating a shift “further toward deficit…not recovery”.
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Glaciers disappearing
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“You asked if it could happen again? Absolutely; the problem in this region is that there’s 63,700 glaciers at the last count,” she told a Press Conference in Geneva. “Even if you’re looking with remote sensing with satellites at these glaciers, you might see some faults, you might see some slight shifting, that does not mean necessarily catastrophic collapse. So, in order to plan for this, it’s very, very difficult. But the international community is looking very hard at ways in which we can bring people together to solve some of these monitoring issues.”
Data indicates that glaciers shrank between 2023 and 2025 with cumulative losses of 1,400 gigatonnes of water – or about one third of annual fresh water needs.
Every major glacier region on Earth lost ice for the fourth consecutive year.
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Preparing for moving baselines
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