The United Nations Office at Geneva
Multimedia Newsroom
98% chance at least one in the next five years will beat the temperature record set in 2016, says WMO latest report
Global temperatures are set to reach new records in the next five years (2023-2027) and will be more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years, the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Wednesday.
“There is a 66 per cent chance that we would exceed 1.5 degrees during the coming five years,” said Professor Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General, talking to media at the United Nations in Geneva.
And there is a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.
“We will see the warmest year on record during the coming five years once this La Niña phase is over,” predicted WMO’s Secretary-General. “These kinds of variations are a combination of these specific surface temperature variations and the impacts of climate change.”
Scientists are expecting a temporary warming effect from the naturally occurring El Niño and climate change to develop in the coming months. The cooling influence of La Niña over much of the past three years ended in March 2023.
“Climate change is proceeding and once we extract this impact of natural variability caused by the El Niño variability, it is once again demonstrating we are moving in the wrong direction when it comes to increases of temperatures and also when it comes to changes in the global precipitation patterns,” said Prof Taalas.
In addition to increasing global temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are leading to more ocean heating and acidification, sea ice and glacier melt, sea level rise and more extreme weather. All this will have far reaching repercussions to health, food security, water management and environment, said WMO.
Arctic warming is disproportionality high, according to the UN agency’s latest climate report. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.
“The most dramatic changes we expect to happen is in the Arctic where we have already seen more than double the global warming taking place and during the coming five years the estimation is that Arctic temperatures would be three times the global average, so we will see more dramatic impacts there,” said Prof Taalas.
On a more pragmatic and encouraging note, Dr Leon Hermanson, climate scientist from the UK Met Office, insisted that cutting greenhouse gas emissions “will reduce the warming and will reduce these big impacts…it will be sad the day we pass 1.5(C) but it’s not a reason to give up, we have to continue working out how we can reduce emissions of greenhouse gases as much as possible even after that.”
-ends-
STORY: Climate Predictions Next Five Years - WMO
TRT: 02’26”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH/NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
RELEASE DATE: 17 May 2023
GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
SHOTLIST
- Exterior wide shot: UN flag alley UN Geneva.
- Wide shot of podium, speakers, conference room, Palais des Nations, Geneva
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Prof Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General: “There is a 66 per cent chance that we would exceed 1.5 degrees during the coming five years.”
- Close-up: cameraman, monitors in background
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Prof Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General: “We will see the warmest year on record during the coming five years once this La Niña phase is over. These kinds of variations are a combination of these specific surface temperature variations and the impacts of climate change.”
- Medium shot: cameraman takes photos of speakers on podium
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Prof Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General: “The most dramatic changes we expect to happen is in the Arctic where we have already seen more than double the global warming taking place and during the coming five years the estimation is that Arctic temperatures would be three times the global average, so we will see more dramatic impacts there.”
- Wide shot: journalists, cameras, technicians
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Prof Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General: “Climate change is proceeding and once we extract this impact of natural variability caused by the El Niño variability, it is once again demonstrating we are moving in the wrong direction when it comes to increases of temperatures and also when it comes to changes in the global precipitation patterns.”
- Speakers visible on monitors with camera in foreground
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Dr Leon Hermanson, Met Office climate scientist: “We need to emit as few as possible of any greenhouse gases in any emissions that we manage to cut will reduce the warming and will reduce these big impacts we have been talking about. So, it will be sad the day we pass 1.5 but it’s not a reason to give up, we have to continue working out how we can reduce emissions of greenhouse gases as much as possible even after that.”
- Wide shot: technicians, journalists in room
- Close-up: laptop
- Medium shot: cameras, technicians
Similar Stories
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
UN Human Rights Spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani on Friday made the following remarks on Israel’s military ground incursions and displacement orders in Lebanon.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , IOM , WHO
The escalating war in the Middle East has heightened growing concerns about further civilian suffering and displacement in the region and far beyond, UN agencies said on Friday.
2
1
2
Press Conferences , Edited News | OHCHR
UN Human Rights chief Volker Türk made the following remarks at a press stake out on the current situation in the Middle East.
“The crisis sparked in the Middle East one week ago following US and Israeli attacks on Iran, and Iran’s counterattacks, has been spreading like wildfire. It is causing significant damage in Iran, Israel and at least a dozen other countries, mostly in the Gulf, with risks of major economic and environmental ramifications across the world,” he said.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
UN Human Rights Spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani on Tuesday made the following remarks on the current situation in the Middle-East.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNHCR , WFP
Schoolgirls killed, thousands displaced, aid routes compromised: UN humanitarians deplore effects of new Middle East war
On the fourth day of Israeli and United States airstrikes against Iran and amid growing violence and instability in the Middle East, the UN urgently called for protection of civilians and warned of growing displacement and humanitarian needs.
1
1
1
Edited News | IOM
Well over 1.3 million people have fled Sudan’s ongoing war for South Sudan, the UN migration agency, IOM, reported on Friday, amid rising violence and a massive humanitarian emergency linked to the country’s political crisis.
2
1
2
Statements , Conferences , Edited News | HRC , OHCHR
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk on Friday presented to the 61st Human Rights Council his global update on the human rights situation.
2
1
2
Edited News | OHCHR
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk on Thursday presented to the UN Human Rights Council a new report on the human rights situation in occupied Palestinian territory.
2
1
2
Edited News | OHCHR
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk on Thursday briefed the Human Rights Council in Geneva on the human rights situation in Sudan: “Nearly three years of brutal conflict have almost turned Sudan into a land of despair. The report I am presenting today is yet another chapter in the chronicle of cruelty. It outlines clear, ongoing patterns of violence against civilians, including killings, rape, and torture. As the fighting has intensified, violations of international law by all parties to the conflict have surged, while accountability has remained practically absent,” he said.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk on Thursday told the Human Rights Council in Geneva today: “Afghanistan is a graveyard for human rights. The cascade of edicts and laws announced by the de facto authorities since coming to power in 2021 is having a crushing impact on the Afghan people, particularly women and girls.”
3
1
Edited News | UNITED NATIONS , OCHA , UNHCR
Ukraine enters fifth year of war: Attacks and displacement deepen human suffering amid mounting recovery challenges
On the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, UN officials took stock of the immense human and economic toll of the conflict while appealing to the world to “never get used to war.”
2
27
2
2
Edited News , Press Conferences , Images | General Assembly , UNITED NATIONS
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops on 24 February 2022 shattered the peaceful aspirations of an entire continent, but war must never be the new normal, UN General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock said on Tuesday.