The United Nations Office at Geneva
Multimedia Newsroom
Arrival of El Niño likely to bring surging record temperatures
The El Niño weather pattern has developed in the Pacific Ocean for the first time in seven years, increasing the likelihood of more heat and new temperature records, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon and one of the major drivers of the Earth’s climate system. Its onset follows a three-year La Niña spell, which is linked to ocean cooling.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, WMO’s Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, told reporters in Geneva that “the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing El Niño conditions, and this is a result of rapid and substantive change both in the atmosphere and in the ocean”.
Global temperatures are likely to surge as El Niño will add to man-made, greenhouse gas-induced atmosphere warming.
Mr. Moufouma Okia recalled that in a report last month, WMO estimated the likelihood of a temperature increase in excess of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels over one of the next five years. With El Niño, there is a “high probability for the temperature to be one of the warmest on record” in this period of time, he said.
According to WMO’s State of the Global Climate reports, the warmest year currently on record, 2016, was characterized by a “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases.
WMO said that the effect of El Niño on global temperatures usually plays out in the year after the conditions develop, so it will likely be most apparent in 2024.
Addressing regional effects of the phenomenon, Mr. Moufouma Okia noted that temperatures are expected to be above average in a band of latitude between the 50th parallel south and the 50th parallel north - the Maritime Continent – which is a term used by meteorologists to describe the region between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, including the archipelagos of Indonesia, Borneo, New Guinea, the Philippine Islands, the Malay Peninsula and the surrounding seas – the Caribbean, central America and the northern part of South America.
WMO highlighted that El Niño events were typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
In contrast, El Niño can also cause “severe droughts” over Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America and northern South America, according to the agency.
Looking ahead, Mr. Moufouma Okia said that there was a 90 per cent chance of El Niño prevailing in the second half of 2023 and that the global forecasting community will be monitoring conditions closely.
According to WMO, El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months.
STORY: El Niño Update - WMO
TRT: 1’16”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH, NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
RELEASE DATE: 4 July 2023
FORMAT: HYBRID PRESS BRIEFING
DATELINE: GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
SHOTLIST
- Exterior wide shot: UN flag alley UN Geneva.
- Cutaway: wide shot, speakers behind podium at the press conference, UN Geneva.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing El Niño conditions, and this is a result of rapid and substantive change both in the atmosphere and in the ocean.”
- Cutaway: close lateral shot, attendees at the press conference, UN Geneva.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “The temperature is likely to be, is expected to be above the average in a warm band of latitude between 50 South and 50 North, that’s the place where you have locations such as the Maritime Continent, the Caribbean, central America, the northern part of South America.”
- Cutaway: medium lateral shot, attendees at the press conference, UN Geneva.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “WMO issued another report where we tried to estimate the likelihood of one of the next five years reaching and even exceeding 1.5 degrees. Basically with El Niño, we have a high probability for this temperature to be one of the warmest on record.”
- Various cutaways of speakers and journalists at the press conference, UN Geneva.
Similar Stories
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
Un nouveau rapport du Haut-Commissariat des Nations Unies aux droits de l'homme sur la République démocratique du Congo évoque le spectre de crimes de guerre et de crimes contre l'humanité dans le Nord et le Sud-Kivu.,
2
1
2
Press Conferences , Edited News | HRC
A high-level independent rights probe into the Sudan crisis on Tuesday condemned the many grave crimes committed against civilians by all parties to the war, citing disturbing evidence indicating that they had been “deliberately targeted, displaced and starved”.
1
1
1
Edited News | WHO
Ukraine: ‘Relentless’ attacks rattle health system as winter approaches: WHO
Ambulances attacked, chronically ill patients lacking care and no peace in sight: for millions of Ukrainians, the run-up to another winter of war is just the latest life-or-death challenge they face, the UN health agency (WHO) said on Tuesday.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk on Monday delivered his report on Sri Lanka to the 60th session of the Human Rights Council in Geneva.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk on Monday delivered his global update to the 60th session of the Human Rights Council in Geneva.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR
A UN report on the Democratic Republic of Congo raises specter of war crimes and crimes against humanity in North and South Kivu, according to UN Human Rights Spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani.
1
1
1
Edited News | WMO
As billions of people continue to breathe polluted air that causes more than 4.5 million premature deaths every year, UN climate experts on Friday highlighted how damaging microscopic smoke particles from wildfires play their part, travelling half-way across the world.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR
UN Human Rights Office Spokesperson Jeremy Laurence made the following comment on the on-going presidential election process in Cameroon at the bi-weekly press briefing in Geneva.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR
The UN Human Rights Office released a new report on Myanmar, describing death, destruction and desperation which reflect atrocities committed in 2017.
1
1
1
Edited News | OCHA , IFRC , UNHCR
Afghanistan: Humanitarians scramble to reach survivors of deadly quake; response at ‘breaking point’
In remote eastern Afghanistan, aid workers are racing to assist survivors of Sunday’s devastating earthquake as the death toll continues to climb, UN humanitarians said on Tuesday.
1
1
1
Edited News | UNRWA
The head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, repeated his urgent call for a ceasefire in Gaza on Friday, amid increased military Israeli activity in the enclave’s largest city.
1
1
1
Edited News | OCHA , WHO
Amid reports of increased Israeli military operations across Gaza City on Friday, UN aid agencies repeated urgent warnings of ongoing famine and a likely rise in preventable disease, linked to the dire living conditions in the war-shattered enclave.