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Arrival of El Niño likely to bring surging record temperatures
The El Niño weather pattern has developed in the Pacific Ocean for the first time in seven years, increasing the likelihood of more heat and new temperature records, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon and one of the major drivers of the Earth’s climate system. Its onset follows a three-year La Niña spell, which is linked to ocean cooling.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, WMO’s Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, told reporters in Geneva that “the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing El Niño conditions, and this is a result of rapid and substantive change both in the atmosphere and in the ocean”.
Global temperatures are likely to surge as El Niño will add to man-made, greenhouse gas-induced atmosphere warming.
Mr. Moufouma Okia recalled that in a report last month, WMO estimated the likelihood of a temperature increase in excess of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels over one of the next five years. With El Niño, there is a “high probability for the temperature to be one of the warmest on record” in this period of time, he said.
According to WMO’s State of the Global Climate reports, the warmest year currently on record, 2016, was characterized by a “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases.
WMO said that the effect of El Niño on global temperatures usually plays out in the year after the conditions develop, so it will likely be most apparent in 2024.
Addressing regional effects of the phenomenon, Mr. Moufouma Okia noted that temperatures are expected to be above average in a band of latitude between the 50th parallel south and the 50th parallel north - the Maritime Continent – which is a term used by meteorologists to describe the region between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, including the archipelagos of Indonesia, Borneo, New Guinea, the Philippine Islands, the Malay Peninsula and the surrounding seas – the Caribbean, central America and the northern part of South America.
WMO highlighted that El Niño events were typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
In contrast, El Niño can also cause “severe droughts” over Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America and northern South America, according to the agency.
Looking ahead, Mr. Moufouma Okia said that there was a 90 per cent chance of El Niño prevailing in the second half of 2023 and that the global forecasting community will be monitoring conditions closely.
According to WMO, El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months.
STORY: El Niño Update - WMO
TRT: 1’16”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH, NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
RELEASE DATE: 4 July 2023
FORMAT: HYBRID PRESS BRIEFING
DATELINE: GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
SHOTLIST
- Exterior wide shot: UN flag alley UN Geneva.
- Cutaway: wide shot, speakers behind podium at the press conference, UN Geneva.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing El Niño conditions, and this is a result of rapid and substantive change both in the atmosphere and in the ocean.”
- Cutaway: close lateral shot, attendees at the press conference, UN Geneva.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “The temperature is likely to be, is expected to be above the average in a warm band of latitude between 50 South and 50 North, that’s the place where you have locations such as the Maritime Continent, the Caribbean, central America, the northern part of South America.”
- Cutaway: medium lateral shot, attendees at the press conference, UN Geneva.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “WMO issued another report where we tried to estimate the likelihood of one of the next five years reaching and even exceeding 1.5 degrees. Basically with El Niño, we have a high probability for this temperature to be one of the warmest on record.”
- Various cutaways of speakers and journalists at the press conference, UN Geneva.
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Glaciers disappearing
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“You asked if it could happen again? Absolutely; the problem in this region is that there’s 63,700 glaciers at the last count,” she told a Press Conference in Geneva. “Even if you’re looking with remote sensing with satellites at these glaciers, you might see some faults, you might see some slight shifting, that does not mean necessarily catastrophic collapse. So, in order to plan for this, it’s very, very difficult. But the international community is looking very hard at ways in which we can bring people together to solve some of these monitoring issues.”
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“Some glacier loss is inevitable, but total loss of glaciers is not yet inevitable,” she said, pointing to emissions reductions as central to limiting future losses.
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