The United Nations Office at Geneva
Multimedia Newsroom
Arrival of El Niño likely to bring surging record temperatures
The El Niño weather pattern has developed in the Pacific Ocean for the first time in seven years, increasing the likelihood of more heat and new temperature records, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon and one of the major drivers of the Earth’s climate system. Its onset follows a three-year La Niña spell, which is linked to ocean cooling.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, WMO’s Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, told reporters in Geneva that “the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing El Niño conditions, and this is a result of rapid and substantive change both in the atmosphere and in the ocean”.
Global temperatures are likely to surge as El Niño will add to man-made, greenhouse gas-induced atmosphere warming.
Mr. Moufouma Okia recalled that in a report last month, WMO estimated the likelihood of a temperature increase in excess of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels over one of the next five years. With El Niño, there is a “high probability for the temperature to be one of the warmest on record” in this period of time, he said.
According to WMO’s State of the Global Climate reports, the warmest year currently on record, 2016, was characterized by a “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases.
WMO said that the effect of El Niño on global temperatures usually plays out in the year after the conditions develop, so it will likely be most apparent in 2024.
Addressing regional effects of the phenomenon, Mr. Moufouma Okia noted that temperatures are expected to be above average in a band of latitude between the 50th parallel south and the 50th parallel north - the Maritime Continent – which is a term used by meteorologists to describe the region between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, including the archipelagos of Indonesia, Borneo, New Guinea, the Philippine Islands, the Malay Peninsula and the surrounding seas – the Caribbean, central America and the northern part of South America.
WMO highlighted that El Niño events were typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
In contrast, El Niño can also cause “severe droughts” over Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America and northern South America, according to the agency.
Looking ahead, Mr. Moufouma Okia said that there was a 90 per cent chance of El Niño prevailing in the second half of 2023 and that the global forecasting community will be monitoring conditions closely.
According to WMO, El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months.
STORY: El Niño Update - WMO
TRT: 1’16”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH, NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
RELEASE DATE: 4 July 2023
FORMAT: HYBRID PRESS BRIEFING
DATELINE: GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
SHOTLIST
- Exterior wide shot: UN flag alley UN Geneva.
- Cutaway: wide shot, speakers behind podium at the press conference, UN Geneva.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing El Niño conditions, and this is a result of rapid and substantive change both in the atmosphere and in the ocean.”
- Cutaway: close lateral shot, attendees at the press conference, UN Geneva.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “The temperature is likely to be, is expected to be above the average in a warm band of latitude between 50 South and 50 North, that’s the place where you have locations such as the Maritime Continent, the Caribbean, central America, the northern part of South America.”
- Cutaway: medium lateral shot, attendees at the press conference, UN Geneva.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “WMO issued another report where we tried to estimate the likelihood of one of the next five years reaching and even exceeding 1.5 degrees. Basically with El Niño, we have a high probability for this temperature to be one of the warmest on record.”
- Various cutaways of speakers and journalists at the press conference, UN Geneva.
Similar Stories
1
1
1
Edited News
Syria prison survivor seeks justice for the missing with UN backing.
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk on Friday warned that three and a half years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the war in Ukraine has entered an even more dangerous and deadly stage for Ukrainian civilians, under relentless bombardment of their schools, hospitals, and shelters.
1
1
1
Edited News | UNICEF , WHO , ICRC
Quadcopter victims, terror and death: 30 minutes in a Gaza hospital
UN aid teams on Friday highlighted the disturbing situation in Gaza’s makeshift hospitals, where premature babies cry for scant oxygen and medics attempt to save child survivors targeted by airstrikes in their tents and quadcopter victims reportedly shot while fetching bread.
2
1
2
Edited News | OHCHR
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk on Thursday delivered his oral update to the UN Human Rights Council’s 60th session on the human rights situation in Haiti.
The High Commissioner welcomed Wednesday’s decision of the UN Security Council to strengthen the Multinational Security Support mission by transitioning to the Gang Suppression Force for Haiti, stating it is a strong signal of international support for the Haitian people.
1
1
1
Edited News | OCHA , UNICEF
Gaza: As world waits for US peace plan news, UN aid teams stress need for ceasefire
UN agencies reiterated calls for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza on Tuesday to help alleviate Palestinian suffering, as a new US 20-point plan raised hopes of a halt to the fighting.
1
1
1
Edited News | WHO
The ongoing Israeli military offensive in Gaza City continues to overwhelm the war-torn enclave’s medical professionals, with four more hospitals forced to shut down this month alone, the UN World Health Organization said on Friday.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
A UN Human Rights report released today details the dire situation of thousands of civilians detained since Russia’s full-scale armed attack on Ukraine in 2022.
1
1
1
Edited News | WHO , UNICEF
Sudan war: Life-saving cholera vaccination campaign begins in Darfur
Amid the devastating war in Sudan, UN aid teams are overcoming major obstacles to curb a cholera outbreak claiming lives across the country, with young children particularly at risk.
2
1
2
Edited News , B-roll | UN WOMEN
Women and girls still reeling from Afghanistan's recent deadly earthquake face even greater suffering rebuilding their lives and livelihoods without much more help from the international community, UN Women said on Friday.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
Rising civilian casualties, growing ethnic violence and the grim humanitarian situation in Sudan underscore how the crisis there is deepening, according to a UN Human rights report published today.
1
1
1
Edited News | UNITED NATIONS
United Nations agencies staff demonstrates on Place des Nations in Geneva to denounce the killing of their colleagues in Gaza.
1
1
1
Edited News | WMO
The world’s water resources face growing pressure from climate change while emergencies related to the vital resource are increasingly impacting lives and livelihoods, the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Thursday.