Climate procrastination means we now need to cut emissions by more than half, urge UN climate experts
The world must more than halve greenhouse gas emissions in the next 10 years – by some 30 billion tonnes - to try to limit average global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, leading UN scientists said on Tuesday.
Citing bleak findings in the UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2019, lead author John Christensen warned that “if you look at the global emissions, they are still going up”.
Mr. Christensen, who is Director of the UNEP-Danish Technology Institute Partnership, told journalists in Geneva that scientific models where global temperature rise was limited to two degrees Celsius “showed an emissions gap of 12 to 15 gigatonnes” – a gigatonne being the equivalent of a billion tonnes.
“If you’re looking at the 1.5 degree (Celsius target) which is really the desirable one, we have a gap of around 30 gigatonnes,” he said. “And 30 gigatonnes is more than half of what we emit now, which is why we need to come down by 55 per cent in 10 years.”
Echoing that appeal, UN Secretary-General António Guterres insisted that “for 10 years, the Emissions Gap Report has been sounding the alarm – and for 10 years, the world has only increased its emissions.” There has never been a more important time to listen to the science, Mr. Guterres said, as “failure to heed these warnings and take drastic action to reverse emissions means we will continue to witness deadly and catastrophic heatwaves, storms and pollution”.
Taking up that message, Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director, blamed “climate procrastination” by Governments. “We are looking at a 7.6 per cent reduction every year,” she said. “Is that possible? Absolutely. Will it take political will? Yes. Will we need to have the private sector lean in? Yes. But the science tells us that we can do this.”
A 1.5C increase will mean that “75 per cent of the coral reefs will die”, Mrs. Andersen added. “At 2C practically all coral reefs disappear. We understand that insects that we need for pollination to have our food production will be significantly impacted and we are likely to lose massive habitats and therefore insects at the higher level.”
The challenge of tackling this is a daunting one, however, not least because of an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, which “had basically been stable for a few of years”, Mr. Christensen said.
Data from the UN World Meteorological Organization shows that since 1990, greenhouse gases have caused a 43 per cent increase in so-called radiative forcing - the warming effect on the climate.
Of these gases, CO2 accounts for about 80 per cent.
“We hoped that that indicated a stabilization,” he explained. “But in 2017 and 2018 - we don’t have the ‘19 numbers yet - emissions have been going up and CO2 emissions have been going up the last year by two per cent, so that’s actually above the average of the last 10 years.”
According to the yearly UNEP report, the increased CO2 emissions are linked to an improved economic performance in nations that are hugely reliant on energy produced by fossil fuels, compared with richer nations belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
“It’s coming because economic growth especially in developing countries is really high,” Mr. Christensen said. “While the OECD countries don’t really add to the CO2, they don’t really come down a lot either. But the main growth is in developing countries due to economic growth and still relatively high energy and carbon intensity in their energy systems.”
Confirming the likely impact of increased emissions on average global temperature rise since the industrial era, Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General said that the world was “moving towards three to five degrees (Celsius) warming by the end of this century, instead of 1.5 to two, which was the Paris (Agreement of 2015)…target.”
For many communities, the issue is not so much temperature increases as more extreme weather events, Professor Taalas insisted. “The main impact so far and by the end of this century is coming from the changes in rainfall patterns,” he said. “We have started seeing already some of the regions to become more dry, especially Africa and some parts of Asia and some parts of the Americas and that’s having an even bigger impact than the temperature changes.”
In December 2020, countries are expected to significantly step up their climate commitments at the UN Climate Conference - COP26 - due to be held in Glasgow.
Hinting at the potential for progress offered by the fact that the cost of renewable energy technology is coming down all the time, making it attractive to the private sector, Mr. Christensen warned that many countries still needed to do much more.
“Most of the ones that committed to new plans next year and to zero carbon emissions are not in the G20; a few of them are, but not a lot. And then we look in detail at G20 countries this year and also I have to say that a lot of the plans that have been discussed about have really not been acted on yet.”
1
1
1
Edited News | UNWOMEN
Aid agencies echoed wider warnings of growing signs of widespread starvation in Gaza on Tuesday, as UN-partnered international food security experts released their most dire assessment yet of the situation in the wartorn enclave.
1
1
1
Edited News | IOM , UNDP , UNHCR
Sudan: urgent help needed as more than 1.3 million war-displaced people begin to return home
As conflict rages on across parts of Sudan, pockets of relative safety have emerged in the past four month, spurring more than one million internally displaced Sudanese to make their way home, says the International Organization for Migration (IOM). A further 320,000 cross-border refugees have come back to Sudan since last year, mainly from Egypt and South Sudan, to assess the current situation before deciding to return to their country for good.
1
1
1
Edited News | UNRWA , WHO
Gaza: SOS messages describe people fainting from hunger; UN health worker detained
Worrying alerts from United Nations staff in Gaza who have been fainting from hunger and exhaustion over the past 48 hours have increased fears for people’s survival in the devastated enclave, UN humanitarians said on Tuesday.
1
1
1
Edited News | UNHCR , UNOG
Over 11.6 million refugees risk losing aid access due to funding cuts, says UNHCR
Approximately one in three refugees and other vulnerable individuals normally supported by the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) are expected to lose out from funding cuts, it said on Friday.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR
Ravina Shamdasani, Spokesperson for the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, made the following announcement on the Office’s opening of a new mission in Bangladesh.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR
“The surge in the number of Afghans forced or compelled to return to Afghanistan this year is creating a multi-layered human rights crisis requiring the urgent attention of the international community,” UN Human Rights spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani said on Friday.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk on Friday called for accountability and justice for the killings and other gross human rights violations and abuses in the southern city of Suweida.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNHCR
Syria: hundreds killed in Sweida, ‘widespread’ violations as civilians flee for their lives
Amid violent clashes in southern Syria’s Sweida governorate, a picture of grave human rights abuses and rising humanitarian needs is emerging by the hour, the UN said on Friday.
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
At the bi-weekly press briefing in Geneva the UN Human Rights Spokesperson Liz Throssell made the following statement on the latest number of civilian casualties in Ukraine.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
The UN Human Rights Office on Tuesday called for investigations into hundreds of killings of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank by Israeli security forces and settlers, warning against ongoing forced mass displacement of the Palestinian population.
1
1
2
Edited News | OHCHR , UNRWA
Nearly 900 people have been killed in Gaza in recent weeks trying to fetch food, with most deaths linked to private aid hubs run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the UN human rights office, OHCHR, said on Tuesday.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
The United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) and the UN Human Rights Office have today released a report detailing the evolution of violent gang incidents beyond the capital Port-au-Prince since October 2024 up to June 2025, and the resulting loss of life and mass displacement.