Climate procrastination means we now need to cut emissions by more than half, urge UN climate experts
The world must more than halve greenhouse gas emissions in the next 10 years – by some 30 billion tonnes - to try to limit average global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, leading UN scientists said on Tuesday.
Citing bleak findings in the UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2019, lead author John Christensen warned that “if you look at the global emissions, they are still going up”.
Mr. Christensen, who is Director of the UNEP-Danish Technology Institute Partnership, told journalists in Geneva that scientific models where global temperature rise was limited to two degrees Celsius “showed an emissions gap of 12 to 15 gigatonnes” – a gigatonne being the equivalent of a billion tonnes.
“If you’re looking at the 1.5 degree (Celsius target) which is really the desirable one, we have a gap of around 30 gigatonnes,” he said. “And 30 gigatonnes is more than half of what we emit now, which is why we need to come down by 55 per cent in 10 years.”
Echoing that appeal, UN Secretary-General António Guterres insisted that “for 10 years, the Emissions Gap Report has been sounding the alarm – and for 10 years, the world has only increased its emissions.” There has never been a more important time to listen to the science, Mr. Guterres said, as “failure to heed these warnings and take drastic action to reverse emissions means we will continue to witness deadly and catastrophic heatwaves, storms and pollution”.
Taking up that message, Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director, blamed “climate procrastination” by Governments. “We are looking at a 7.6 per cent reduction every year,” she said. “Is that possible? Absolutely. Will it take political will? Yes. Will we need to have the private sector lean in? Yes. But the science tells us that we can do this.”
A 1.5C increase will mean that “75 per cent of the coral reefs will die”, Mrs. Andersen added. “At 2C practically all coral reefs disappear. We understand that insects that we need for pollination to have our food production will be significantly impacted and we are likely to lose massive habitats and therefore insects at the higher level.”
The challenge of tackling this is a daunting one, however, not least because of an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, which “had basically been stable for a few of years”, Mr. Christensen said.
Data from the UN World Meteorological Organization shows that since 1990, greenhouse gases have caused a 43 per cent increase in so-called radiative forcing - the warming effect on the climate.
Of these gases, CO2 accounts for about 80 per cent.
“We hoped that that indicated a stabilization,” he explained. “But in 2017 and 2018 - we don’t have the ‘19 numbers yet - emissions have been going up and CO2 emissions have been going up the last year by two per cent, so that’s actually above the average of the last 10 years.”
According to the yearly UNEP report, the increased CO2 emissions are linked to an improved economic performance in nations that are hugely reliant on energy produced by fossil fuels, compared with richer nations belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
“It’s coming because economic growth especially in developing countries is really high,” Mr. Christensen said. “While the OECD countries don’t really add to the CO2, they don’t really come down a lot either. But the main growth is in developing countries due to economic growth and still relatively high energy and carbon intensity in their energy systems.”
Confirming the likely impact of increased emissions on average global temperature rise since the industrial era, Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General said that the world was “moving towards three to five degrees (Celsius) warming by the end of this century, instead of 1.5 to two, which was the Paris (Agreement of 2015)…target.”
For many communities, the issue is not so much temperature increases as more extreme weather events, Professor Taalas insisted. “The main impact so far and by the end of this century is coming from the changes in rainfall patterns,” he said. “We have started seeing already some of the regions to become more dry, especially Africa and some parts of Asia and some parts of the Americas and that’s having an even bigger impact than the temperature changes.”
In December 2020, countries are expected to significantly step up their climate commitments at the UN Climate Conference - COP26 - due to be held in Glasgow.
Hinting at the potential for progress offered by the fact that the cost of renewable energy technology is coming down all the time, making it attractive to the private sector, Mr. Christensen warned that many countries still needed to do much more.
“Most of the ones that committed to new plans next year and to zero carbon emissions are not in the G20; a few of them are, but not a lot. And then we look in detail at G20 countries this year and also I have to say that a lot of the plans that have been discussed about have really not been acted on yet.”
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Edited News | OHCHR
UN Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights Nada Al-Nashif on Tuesday presented a report on the human rights situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, detailing the continued violations of human rights as a result of the offensive launched by the Rwandan-backed M23 in eastern DRC.
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Edited News | OCHA , UNICEF , IFRC
UN humanitarians and partners on Tuesday expressed deep shock at the killing of 15 colleagues on duty in southern Gaza whose remains were recovered from a shallow grave after a week-long rescue operation, noting that one worker is still missing.
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Edited News | UNICEF , OCHA , WHO , UNHCR
Myanmar earthquake latest: window for lifesaving support is closing, say UN humanitarians
As the death toll continues to rise in earthquake-struck Myanmar, UN humanitarians have been rushing to support severely deprived and traumatized victims, warning that the window for lifesaving response is closing.
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Edited News | OCHA , UNWOMEN , WHO
Lifesaving supplies in Gaza continue to run dangerously low, nearly four weeks into the total aid blockade and deadly bombardment of the enclave by Israel, UN humanitarians said on Friday.
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Edited News | UNICEF
As Yemen’s conflict reaches 10-year mark, over half a million children severely malnourished
In Yemen, a decade of conflict has been catastrophic for the country’s children living under the threat of airstrikes and staggeringly high malnutrition rates, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said on Tuesday.
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Press Conferences , Edited News | UNAIDS
Amid continuing uncertainty about the impact of deep US funding cuts to humanitarian work worldwide, the head of the UN agency coordinating the fight against HIV-AIDS warned that an addition 6.3 million people will die in the next four years, unless the support is reinstated.
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Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
The UN Human Rights Office today published a report detailing how death, injury and lasting family separation are among the traumatic events that have upended the lives of Ukraine’s children in the three years since the Russian Federation launched its full-scale invasion.
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Edited News | UNRWA , UNICEF , IFRC
Israel’s renewed bombing campaign and intensifying ground operation in Gaza are reversing gains achieved during the brief ceasefire, UN humanitarians said on Friday from inside the devastated enclave.
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Press Conferences , Edited News | HRC
The Human Rights Council on Wednesday heard gruesome testimony of torture, rape and execution of Ukrainian detainees and soldiers by Russian forces, as a high-level independent probe delivered its latest mandated report in Geneva.
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Edited News , Press Conferences | UNITED NATIONS
Cyprus talks result in trust-building measures, show ‘new atmosphere’ among divided island’s leaders, says UN’s Guterres
UN-led efforts to kick-start talks on the divided Mediterranean island of Cyprus have resulted in agreements on new trust-building measures and also underscored the positive “new atmosphere” surrounding the discussions, Secretary-General António Guterres said on Tuesday.
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Edited News , Images | UNITED NATIONS , UNOG
Fresh talks over the future of Cyprus continued on Tuesday as representatives of the divided Mediterranean island gathered at the UN in Geneva along with guarantors Greece, Türkiye and the United Kingdom at the request of UN chief António Guterres.
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Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG , WFP
The Government of Israel has ramped up settlement of the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, transferring its own population into the territory and unlawfully demolishing Palestinian homes. At the same time settler violence has increased with continued impunity, the UN Human Rights Office said on Tuesday.