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Violent hurricanes in Gulf Coast offer a tate of things to come as WMO warns of “more hurricanes of categories 4 and 5” this season
As the Gulf Coast of the United States left assessing the massive damage left by hurricane Laura , scientist predict that the strongest storm tied to hit the state of Louisiana since 1856 was just the beginning of more hurricanes to be expected during this season.
“It was a big storm, it generated more accumulated cyclone energy -- which is how we measure these things -- than all the other named storms during August so far,” said Clare Nullis, spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in reference to hurricane Laura. Speaking to journalists in Geneva, Ms. Nullis added that “it’s the seventh named storm to landfall in the United States this season. The others were relatively minor. And it’s obviously by far the most intense and dangerous hurricane so far this season”.
Quoting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ms. Nullis said that “the global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense category 4 and 5 levels will likely increase due to anthropogenic [reasons], so that’s human caused, over the next century”. Hurricane Laura intensified within 24 hours from a category 1 to a category 4 hurricane, leaving a path of destruction in its wake.
The accurate forecasts seem to have kept the death toll to a minimum, with some 20 people killed by the hurricane, mainly in the Dominican Republic and Haiti before Laura developed into a hurricane and hit Louisiana.
Precautions will remain crucial as “we still have a long way to go with climatology saying that we have about 70 percent of strong activity in the season still left,” according to the WMO spokesperson. The hurricane season also started earlier this year than is usual.
Global warming provides one reason for expecting more destructive ad powerful storms more frequently, according to Ms. Nullis. It is “basically the laws of physics,” she said. “Storms feed on warm water, higher water temperatures mean higher sea levels which in turn increases the risk of flooding during high tights and so the circle goes on. Warm air holds more atmospheric water which enables tropical storms to strengthen and unleash more heavy rainfall,” she explained.
- Exterior wide shot, Palais des Nations flag alley, nations’ flags flying
- SOUNDBITE (English) — Clare Nullis, Spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO): “It was a big storm, it generated more accumulated cyclone energy, which is how we measure these things, than any other named storms during August so far. It’s the seventh named storm to landfall in the United States this season. The others were relatively minor. And it’s obviously by far the most intense and dangerous hurricane so far this season”.
- Medium shot, journalists sitting in Press Room III, Palais des Nations.
- SOUNDBITE (English) — Clare Nullis, Spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO): “The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense category 4 and 5 levels will likely increase due to anthropogenic, so that’s human caused, over the next century”.
- Close up, journalist, Press Room III, Palais des Nations.
- SOUNDBITE (English) — Clare Nullis, Spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO): “We still have a long way to go with climatology saying that we have about 70 % of strong activity in the season still left.”
- Wide shot, journalists in Press Room III, Palais des Nations.
- SOUNDBITE (English) — Clare Nullis, Spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO): “We do expect to see more powerful storms in the future as a result of global warming. That’s basically the laws of physics: storms feed on warm water, higher water temperatures mean higher sea levels which in turn increases the risk of flooding during high tights and so the circle goes on. Warm air holds more atmospheric water which enables tropical storms to strengthen and unleash more heavy rainfall”.
- Close up, journalist in Press Room, Palais des Nations.
- Close up, spokesperson in Press Room, Palais des Nations
- Close up, journalist in Press Room, Palais des Nations.
- Close up, journalist in Press Room, Palais des Nations.
- Close up, journalist in Press Room, Palais des Nations.
- Close up, hands typing on laptop
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Narelle van der Wel, WMO’s Head of Cryosphere Monitoring, Predictions and Services, stressed that while some further glacier loss is unavoidable, the eventual scale of the decline is not predetermined.
“Some glacier loss is inevitable, but total loss of glaciers is not yet inevitable,” she said, pointing to emissions reductions as central to limiting future losses.
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