WMO Presser: State of Global Climate 2025 Update

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Today the World Meteorological Organisation is releasing its State of the Climate update for 2025 and this report is for a COP 30.

Please note that at this exact moment another press conference is taking place in Belem in Brazil at Cup 30 with our Secretary General Celeste Salo.

The General Plenary of the Leaders Summit has started earlier this afternoon and the negotiations themselves will be starting on Monday 10th of November.

WMO has been reporting on climate for more than 30 years now and we released this update as 2025 Data is still being collected to get the major trends for this year.

This report is meant to inform discussions at the Conference of the Parties on Climate Change Cup 30 today.

We are joined by Mrs Cole Barrett, Deputy Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organisation, and Mr Chris Hewitt, the Director of Climate Services at WMO and lead coordinator of this report.

To start, it's my honour to give the floor to WMO Deputy Secretary General Cole Barrett, who will set the stage of this new report.

Thank you, Brigitte.

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining this WMO press conference on the State of the Climate update for 2025 and in preparation for COP 30.

At its core, this report reflects the very mission of WMO to bring together the world's weather, water, and climate science in service to people everywhere for more than three decades.

WMO State of the Climate reports have provided the international community with an authoritative picture of our changing climate, translating scientific observation into knowledge that informs global policy.

At our recent Congress of WMO members, the UN Secretary General described WMO as a barometer of truth, a clear eyed source of data about the planet we share.

This update embodies that truth.

Through comprehensive data, emerging trends and documented impacts.

It shows us a planet under increasing climate threat stress.

WM OS State of the Climate reports offer annual updates to the science assessed by the IPCC, bridging observed climate trends with the projections highlighted in the most recent IPCC reports and you'll see reflected in the slides today where WM OS near term data is placed in the context of observed and projected changes from the IPCC.

Together we believe they form a powerful bridge between ongoing monitoring and long term scientific assessment.

This report is concurrently being released by the WMO Secretary General, Professor Celeste Salo at COP 30 in Belen.

Evidence that must inform the decisions made there.

The data is stark.

2025 is on track to rank among the warmest years on record, following 2024, the hottest year ever observed.

Each fraction of a degree matters.

For communities facing floods, droughts, and heat extremes, our message is clear.

The path forward must be guided by science, strengthened by cooperation, and measured by the actions we take.

And while much of what we're seeing in this year's update is sobering, from record greenhouse gas concentrations to ongoing ice loss and intensifying extremes, I'm genuinely encouraged by the hopeful signals as well.

The report highlights the growing recognition of science in shaping policy, in underpinning policy decisions, especially through the next generation of Nationally Determined contributions, and the remarkable progress we are seeing with the early Warnings for All initiative.

These examples show how evidence based action is taking root in national planning and most importantly, saving lives on the ground.

Professor Chris Hewitt will now walk us through the specific findings that demand our attention.

Chris, over to you.

Thank you very much, Co.

Yep, several spoilers there.

I will indeed go into the details now and we have some slides to illustrate the the results.

So if it's possible to get those up on the screen, please.

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So this update combines consolidated data from 2024 and preliminary 2025 data when it's available, giving a near real time, real time view of global climate trends.

The findings are mostly not positive as Co has just said record greenhouse gas levels, warming, melting, But we do also report some positive progress as well, such as science informed NDCS, nationally determined contributions and early warning systems.

And as Co mentioned, so we can see on the slide here, we do also provide context for IPCCI, won't go into the details.

So that's in the IPC CS report, so the most recent assessment report from 2021, but it serves as background information for context if you're interested.

So let's go straight in this slide here showing atmosphere.

So I'm going to show several essential climate variables, and this one is greenhouse gas concentrations.

So 2024 is the most recent year for which we have global consolidated figures for greenhouse gases.

So that's what we're showing here.

But also to note that we do have some figures for 2025 S 2024.

The key message here the greenhouse gas concentrations reach record observed levels.

And so the figure on the right, you can see atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations for example going back to 1984.

This is annual averages and you can see the long term increase.

The trend in atmospheric CO2 and real time data for 2025 from a few stations shows that these trends are continuing into 2025.

The figure at the bottom right shows the growth rate.

So this shows the change from year to year.

And the key point here is that the increase in concentration for CO2 between 2023 and 2024 was a record increase in the recent observational history.

So we're continuing to see greenhouse gas emissions rising.

I said I wouldn't go into the context, but I think this one particular one from IPCC is very useful.

So the observed increases in well mixed greenhouse gases gas concentrations are unequivocably caused by human activities and continue greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming.

So that's a message that we'll see on the following slides.

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So we use 6 global data sets to monitor and assess global mean temperature, and they're shown on the figure on the right there.

Three of them go all the way back to 1850.

And then we have more data sets come online.

So by 1940, we have the six data sets, and these are showing annual average global mean near surface air temperature going back to 1850.

So for temperature, we have data from January to August from all six data sets, and we don't have data from all of the data sets from September and October yet.

So these results, these provisional results in time for COP are for January to August and the average for those eight months was 1.42 ± .12.

So we do have some some error bars around this degree.

C above the pre industrial average, so an 1850 to 1900 average.

So what that means is that 2025 this year is on track to be among the three warmest years on record.

So the second or third warmest year on record.

Clearly we have several more months to go before the year is finished, but it's on track to be among the three warmest years on record.

And all three of the warmest years on record are the most recent three years.

In fact, the past 11 years, if we look back, you can see a lot of variability from year to year.

But the past 11 years have each been in the the warmest 11 years on record, which is actually unprecedented, apart from of course, the 1st 11 years, which obviously with the warmest at that time, but since then.

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Where we have such a pronounced warming.

And you can see it quite clearly on that graphic.

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Moving now to the cryosphere.

So this is a figure for glaciers.

So we've been monitoring glaciers all around the world.

And this graph on the right goes back to 1975 showing glacier mass change, so the balance of masses of glaciers.

So in 2023-2024, this is the hydrological year we used to observe glaciers.

Glaciers lost a record 1.3 metre water equivalent of ice.

We've tried to express that in in different units.

So that's equivalent to 450 giga tonnes, or in terms of sea level rise, that would equate to 1.2 millimetres of sea level rise.

Maybe one more statistic if it helps, we've estimated that would equate to about 180 million Olympic sized swimming pools if we were to put that water into Olympic swimming pools.

These are difficult numbers to get your head around.

So a a large decrease 2024 last year was the 3rd consecutive year that all of the 19 glaciated regions that we monitor recorded a net mass loss.

So all of the regions are recording a net mass loss and Venezuela lost its final glacier which joins Slovenia.

So is the first two countries to lose all of their glaciers in modern times.

Next slide, please, going down now into the ocean.

So there's two figures here relating to the ocean.

So the figure on the left, ocean heat content, so over 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere goes into the ocean.

So the heat from the atmosphere is driving the warming in the ocean.

So the graphic here shows the changes back to 1960 from three different data sets.

And again you can see a clear long term trend.

So increasing ocean heat content, and this is from the surface down to 2000 metres and the ocean heat content for 2024 was the highest on record in that time series.

And preliminary data for this year show that we are continuing to see those increases in ocean heat content.

Ocean warming is irreversible on long time scales, Centennial and longer.

It can drive marine heat waves, loss of sea ice.

Sea level rise degrades marine ecosystems and can intensify tropical and subtropical storms as well.

So this is an important metric to monitor.

The figure on the right is sea level.

So this is global mean sea level going back to 1993 based on satellite measurements.

And again, you can see a clear long term increase there over that time period, quite a lot of variability.

However, the long term rates, if we look at the first decade compared to the most recent decade, the long term rate of global sea level rise has doubled from 2.1 millimetres per year at the beginning to 4.1 millimetres per year in the final decade.

And preliminary data for 2025, you can see on the right hand side of that figure, there's a slight temporary dip compared to 2024, which needs more investigation and it's likely due to natural variability.

So we saw a similar event back in 2011 if you look, and that was related to large changes in inland water storage.

So this is an active area to be studied throughout the rest of the year.

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Jumping back to the Cryosphibbut building on the ocean results says we're now looking at sea ice.

So the figure at the top right is the daily Arctic sea ice extent.

So this looks through the year now.

And at the bottom is the same for Antarctic.

So daily Antarctic sea ice extent.

So if we look at the top first, you can see all the different years going back to 1978.

They're all plotted on here.

And then the 30 year average is the solid black line.

And then the blue line shows the picture for 2025 to date.

And unfortunately the 2025 maximum Arctic sea ice extent.

So the winter sea ice extent was the lowest in this satellite record.

So that's the lowest maximum sea ice extent in the record.

And the whole year, as you can see so far is below a long term average for Antarctica.

Again, the long term average, you can see the whole year is below average.

It's not record minimum, but it's third record minimum and maximum sea ice extent for Antarctica.

So sea ice is below average.

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We also document extreme events around the world.

And so in the actual report there's more details.

So it's in the report.

You'll see there's lots of details here.

So we've just picked out the keywords here.

So there's been a diverse range of extreme weather and climate related events so far in 2025, including heat waves, wildfires, droughts, floods and storms.

And these are having major humanitarian and economic impacts, damaging crops, displacing populations, deepening poverty, loss of lives.

And the extremes have continued beyond this first half of the year.

So Hurricane Melissa will be a a recent example in our memory, a clear example of how the year's severe weather is still unfolding.

And I see now there's a typhoon, a very destructive typhoon in Southeast Asia at the moment.

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I think this is my final slide.

So that was all bad news as coded did warn us, but it's not all bad news.

So there are some positive signs as well.

So on the left here, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, these are WM OS members.

They're playing a growing role in implementing science based climate action all around the world, providing climate services and early warnings such as heat health alerts, agricultural forecasts.

And so the graphic on the left shows the reported and contributions to nationally determined contributions.

So this is where countries are noting the role of climate services and early warnings where they're mentioned in NDCS.

And so for example, the most recent NDCS, more than 70% of those are now referencing climate services or early warning systems.

So this is good progress on the right.

Early warning systems are of course absolutely essential to deal with these extreme events which were on the previous slide as examples.

And so it's very pleasing to see that the number of countries that are reporting multi hazard early warning systems has doubled.

So since 2015, there were 56 countries reporting multi hazard early warning system in their country and now we're up to 119.

However, 119 means that 40% of countries are still lacking such systems.

On the plus side, progress is strongest in least developed countries and small island developing states.

And at WMO, we're very much supporting them through improving observations and access to WM OS integrated processing and prediction system to help provide forecasts and warnings.

The continued investment is needed in data sharing, forecasting and local preparedness so that we can reach universal coverage by 2027, as called for by the UN Secretary General in the early warnings for all.

So thank you very much.

The science is clear, a bit depressing for most of it.

Every indicator is showing the urgency of stronger mitigation and adaptation, but there is encouraging progress, particular expansion of renewable energy, stronger role of climate services, and more effective early warnings.

The record greenhouse gas levels mean it'll be almost impossible to limit global warming to 1.5° C in the coming years without temporary overshooting.

But it is still possible to bring temperatures back down and limit the size and duration of any overshoot as much as possible to limit the impacts on health, livelihoods and nature.

And as has been said many, many times, but it's true, every fraction of a degree of warming really does matter.

So we're providing this update at this stage to inform discussions at COP 30.

And then when the year has finished, we will then produce a report in March of next year on World Meteorological Day, where we'll then report as a final report for 2025.

But we feel it's very important to provide this update in time for COP 30.

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I'll pass back to Rajeet.

Thank you very much, Chris.

And now it's time to open the floor to questions.

We have several questions, several hands up here.

Jeremy launch, do you want to start?

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I was a bit puzzled and surprised by your earlier statement saying that you see hopeful signals in the growing recognition in in science, in shipping policies.

I understand that this is the cop and you don't want to lose the momentum here.

But is that really the case when we think of not only the US, the backlash right now in the US, but I can name Argentina, maybe India as well.

Really.

Do you really see that science is on the rise in those countries?

And do you have maybe examples for for me?

Thanks for that question.

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Well, I won't go into the specifics in one country or another, but from the perspective of WMO, we are seeing a a sharp uptake in the science that we produce.

And in the UN family, which we are a part of as a specialised agency, I think we've never had the kind of exposure that we currently have with the UN Secretary General.

We're constantly on the stage sharing the science.

So, so from our perspective, we see a strong uptake in the science and in particular we see an interest in the kinds of information we provide for early warning, which is not really a controversial topic.

It's it's really kind of goes with with beyond questioning that providing early warnings, giving days of warning in advance of hazardous events is is kind of a no brainer in terms of information that is universally welcome.

Thank you very much.

And we have a second question from Antonio.

Antonio, can you hear us?

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Sorry.

[Other language spoken]

Oh, sorry.

I would like to ask, given that WMO considers it impossible to avoid temporarily exceeding 1.5° in the coming years, whether there are any projections on when the world might begin to move away from that, from that figure and what the minimum level of global warming could be reached now if we begin a strong environmental policies.

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Yeah, I hope I'm not misunderstanding the question.

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So the Paris Agreement refers to long term warming over decades.

And so the results we're showing here are individual years.

So last year the warmest year on record was 1.55°.

So that year was above the 1.5 level.

And now this year we're below that at 1.42 at the moment.

So we've not yet exceeded the 1.5, but we are clearly going in that direction.

So at some point in the coming years, we don't know exactly when that will be, the world will exceed 1.5° in terms of long term warming.

And then the big challenge is to that would be what we would call an overshoot to bring that back down.

But we need to do that as quickly as possible.

So we don't yet know how long we would be above 1.5° and that very much depends on decisions that are made now and as soon as possible, but ideally now.

And so that's one of the big challenges at COP 30 for the countries coming together.

And the plan will be to limit that warming by making it as short and as as small as possible to bring the the temperatures back down.

I'm not sure if you're referring to the UNEP emissions gap report that came out a few days ago.

So there they do update based on nationally determined contributions where the world is currently heading.

And so they are saying 2.3 to 2.5° C, but with current policies, we're heading towards 2.8° C.

So that's where the world could be heading.

And so the challenge is to avoid that and bring that warming down and to limit any overshoot.

So make it a temporary overshoot as as as temporary as possible.

Apologies if I misunderstood part of the question.

Thank you very much, Antonio.

If you want any follow up, please raise your hand again.

Otherwise, I'll happy to give the floor to Bianca.

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Thanks a lot here, Bianca Hotier from Global TV Brazil.

First of all, just a clarification.

Do you usually release a report like that always before every COP?

And of course, this moment is is very symbolic in belaying.

What message does the WMO want to send now from the Amazon, like with this release?

And last point, with China now accelerating the transition, the European Union trying to maintain the leadership, What happens to our planet without the leadership role of the United States when it comes to fighting climate change?

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So I think there were three questions in there.

So the first question, So yes, we do release reports ahead of COPS.

So every year in March we release a report looking back over the previous year.

So we have the data available by March for the previous calendar year, but this information is absolutely essential to inform the negotiations at Cops.

So we take the opportunity ahead of COP to consolidate the data that we have available at that point, which is what we're showing in this report here.

So the that's a rather long answer.

The the quick answer to your question was yes, we do issue this these reports ahead of COP.

The second question about the Amazons.

So in the report, we also summarise some key information from our recent state of the Water resources report.

So the WMO also produces a separate report on the state of water resources.

And so there's information there for South America showing particularly the Amazon region showing river discharge anomalies in 2024 being much below average.

And so there have been, as I'm sure you're more aware than I, there've been droughts and river shortages, water shortages in South America and in the Amazon.

The third question, I'm not sure Co would you like to take that one?

I can take it, but I'm not sure it will be a six an answer that really gets to the thrust of your question.

I mean for WMO, you know, our expertise is in kind of monitoring the pulse of the planet.

So we we just don't consider ourselves experts or opine very much on the policy.

We are focused on providing science to underpin strong climate action.

But with regard to the geopolitics or any of that, we, we tend to stay in our lane.

Thank you very much.

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Yeah, thank you very much.

Over the past few years, many countries have announced that they are reducing their use of fossil fuels, according to your report.

How has fossil fuel use evolved during these these years, starting from 2015, for example?

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So in this report, we we report on the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.

So we don't report on fossil fuel use.

And so fossil fuels are one of the emission sources for greenhouse gas concentrations.

But that's that's not what we do in this report.

So we report on the concentrations in the atmosphere and so yes, if we go back 10 years, as you said, they have been increasing year on year in the atmosphere.

But I can't answer your question because we don't monitor the fossil fuel use.

Thank you very much, Chris.

There doesn't seem to be any other question.

So before we conclude, just to give you a quick update, the press conference that was planned to take place in Bellam couldn't take place because the Leaders Summit was a bit delayed.

But our secretary general is available for interviews.

If anyone would like is on site and would like to get interviews, please write to media@wmo.in.

T and my colleague Claire Neilis will get in touch with you and and try to set it up before we conclude.

Please note that the findings of this update will be presented again during the Earth Information Day at COP.

This will be next Monday to introduce the report to the parties and it will also be presented during a side event in the WMO IPCC Mary Pavilion and this will be on the Tuesday 11th of November.

It will be also live streamed availablefromthewmo.in T website.

So thank you very much for joining today.

Have a good end of day and bonfranjourniatus merci boku.

WMO Presser: State of Global Climate 2025 Update

2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record, continuing exceptionally high warming trend