Good afternoon everybody and thanks for waiting those extra 2 minutes with some extra people participants joining online.
Welcome to the presentation of the 2025 edition of the Review of Maritime Transport.
As you know, this week's attention is focused within our UN world on the UN General Assembly in in New York.
Of course leaders debating peace, finance, climate and development, but of course behind everyone, everyone I say of those debates lies a constant in its ships.
Maritime transport carries over 80%.
That's over 80% of World Trade.
And right now it is under probably what might be its biggest stress test in in several decades.
That's why I think today's launch of the review of maritime transport matters so much and why we of course, releasing it just one day ahead of World Maritime Day, which is tomorrow.
Of course, it's the annual observance of the sector and we provide, of course, the economic intelligence to better frame it.
The report that we're presenting today shows how disruption, security risks and new technologies are reshaping trade and why the coming transitions to 0 carbon digital systems and greater resilience must work for all countries and not just for a few.
So to take us through the key findings and an agile and engaging way, I'm sure I'm pleased to introduce the reports Coordinator, Regina Asialottis to my right, Acting Chief of a trade logistics Brands and Chief of the policy and legislation section, which is also separate segment within the the report.
And of course further to my right, Hasiba Benamara, she's one of the economists on the review of maritime transport drafting Team.
Regina will share some brief remarks after which we'll open the floor for questions.
And of course, our colleague Hasiba is also standing by for more in depth and technical insights.
So thank you very much, Regina, the floor is yours.
Thank you very much, Marcelo.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Let me highlight only some of the key developments outlined in the review of Maritime Transport 2025 and why they matter, especially for developing countries.
We know the global environment has become more complex.
We know geopolitical tensions are affecting the Red Sea and are forced costly RE routings around the Cape of Good Hope.
Risks remain, for example, in the Strait of Hormuz, A vital artery for global oil trade.
New tariffs are disrupting established trade flows, freight rates are high and volatile increasingly, and delay and disruption are becoming the norm.
And these challenges drive up costs.
Small island developing states, least developed countries and net input importing food.
Importing nations are the most vulnerable as higher freight costs quickly translate into more expensive imports and food insecurity.
And in terms of the broad trends in maritime trade, what have we observed?
Seaborne trade has grown in 2024 by 2.2%.
At the same time, reroutings have meant longer shipping routes, with tonne miles increasing about 6%.
This in turn has led to higher transport costs, delays and greenhouse gas emissions, and a reshuffling of shipping networks affecting ports, including in Africa.
For 2025, the big picture is heightened uncertainty and volatility, with growth forecast to slow to only half a percent.
Containerised trade rebounded in 2024, but the overall demand remains uncertain and energy patterns are shifting.
Coal demand rose in Asia, oil remains stable and gas, especially LNG, was the most dynamic segment.
Seaborne trade in critical minerals like copper, cobalt, cobalt and lithium is growing, but because flows are concentrated in a few corridors, supply chain risks are rising for developing countries that export minerals.
Critical minerals trade could be an opportunity, but for this to materialise, the necessary transport and logistics and supportive policies need to be in place to allow them to add value locally as concerns fleet and freight.
The global fleet increased by 3.4% in 2024 and now numbers more than 112,000 vessels, but growth across segments is not uniform, so there was particular a surge in container ship deliveries last year.
Just 8% of the current global fleet can run on alternative fuels, though over half of the new orders of the tonnage of new orders is designed to also run on them, with LNG in the lead.
And freight rates have been reacting sharply to all manner of disruption and in 2025 also to swift changes in trade policy and tariff announcements.
And they've become high and volatile.
For developing countries, this volatility means higher trade costs, both for imports and for exports, and now ports connectivity and digitalisation, and the maritime workforce.
Ports in Africa and in Asia have improved their connectivity, with Africa showing the fastest growth, helped by trade rerouting away from the Red Sea.
Yet congestion and long waiting times remain a challenge, particularly for developing countries with fewer modern facilities and persistent capacity constraints.
Digital solutions like maritime, single windows and port community systems are proving essential for port efficiency and for smoother trade.
But greater reliance on digital systems and solutions across the industry also heightened cyber risks and vulnerabilities which need to be addressed.
Gender inclusiveness in ports is improving, with nearly 40% of managerial positions held by women, but women remain under represented in operational jobs where automation may create new opportunities.
Maritime workforce development and training will be vital for resilience building.
More consistent implementation and enforcement of rules to protect seafarer rights by flag States and port States and by the industry will be key to turning the tide on the growing shortage of seafarers.
And let me add a few comments on regulatory developments, many of which are covered in the review of maritime transport.
A major development is the IMO Net 0 framework, which will be considered for formal adoption this October.
It would introduce a global fuel standard, a carbon pricing mechanism and a net zero fund to support resurgent technology and also infrastructure and just transition initiatives, especially in small island developing States and least developed countries.
And if adopted, revenues from this fund could help developing countries decarbonise.
But of course, a lot more investment will be needed to ensure the necessary infrastructure is in place, especially in these developing countries, if adopted.
That is a big question at this point, but at the same time, alternative fuels, which we all hope will develop further, they pose new safety, liability and training challenges.
And that means safety protocols, regulatory frameworks and seafarers need to receive some attention in this respect to address these things.
And finally, the Hong Kong Convention on Ship Recycling has entered into force and this was coming for a number of years.
So that's a major development and this matters particularly as we're talking about the renewal of the fleet, because ship scrapping capacity will have to go up as efforts, as part of efforts to decarbonise.
And all countries should therefore consider ratifying this convention to ensure its widespread international application and make the process safer.
So in terms of key messages and priorities, you find a lot of detail in the report and also in the overview.
But just to highlight a few points.
Build resilience and flexibility, support developing countries, invest in sustainability, protect and empower workers, advance digitalisation and strengthen cybersecurity, Secure climate finance and adjust the regulatory framework to keep pace with technological developments and make sure shipping remains safe, reliable and secure.
Thank you very much for this excellent overview.
Really adding some more perspective to the the news release that we issued a few days ago and that which all the participants have received to navigate through the the report.
We open the floor for Q&A starting with of course those here in the room where we have several participants online.
You know the drill name and the outlet that you represent and whom you address your question to.
So from the room, nobody at the moment online we have several accredited journalists.
I don't see any hands up.
I don't know if my colleagues see anybody wanting to dive deeper.
The first one, first mover advantage and that's Richard Mead, if I read the name correctly.
So Richard, thank you for your for your interest and the floor is yours.
Richard B Lloyd's list, we cover shipping.
How much of the report's assumptions are going to be put at risk if the IMO net 0 framework is not adopted next month?
Thank you very much for this question.
None of the assumptions are put at risk because we didn't make any assumptions.
What we do is we report on developments.
So this is a development to report on.
Obviously, it's eagerly awaited by some.
It is not uncontroversial.
So it remains to be seen if it will adopt it.
What we have done is to have a look at it and outline some of the implications of its adoption.
We will have to await what the member states of the IMO will do.
Hope that answers your question.
We're also happy to have a second round of questions if there's any follow up.
We have several other hands in the air.
Laurent Sierra from the Swiss News Agency, please.
Yeah, thank you for the the press conference.
I, I, I'd like you to elaborate a little bit on the trend regarding the sea powers who are stuck on the on their boats in several regions in in the world.
We knew that it was a huge issue during the pandemics.
And then there was there were these discussions that I hello with the new norm.
So where do we stand now concretely in terms of trend?
Have you seen last year, Steven, increase on, on the situation regarding seafarers?
And is there also a link to some of the conflicts that we can observe?
Because it seems that a lot of Russian seafarers are stuck because they were before the sanctions, they were hoot.
They were, they were working on their boats and they cannot get out of the boats anymore waiting for the sanctions to be lifted.
So, yeah, if you could talk a little bit about the trends.
So just to clarify, if we understood you rightly on thank you for the question above.
And all your question is regarding really the current resurptions in, in, in, in maritime transport given various conflicts around the world and how this is impacting the trends.
Yeah, sorry, focusing rather on the on the question linked to the seafarers who are stuck in the different ports in the in the world, how that problem is evolving in terms of absolute figures.
And if you see an impact or or no impact at all on some of the the trade.
Thank you very much for for the questions.
Yes, seafarers have had a very difficult time for many years, particularly during the pandemic, as you know, as there was a humanitarian crew change crisis as something we've covered extensively at the time.
And we continue to observe developments regarding seafarers because many, most of them are from developing countries.
Seafarers are key workers and they keep everything running.
So we all depend on on seafarers and the strains are continuing.
So obviously seafarers are affected by all developments taking place at the morning, including the disruptions that you refer to.
A lot of seafarers are still facing potential abandonment, which is one of the problems which is also being addressed at the IMO and needs to be addressed.
There's a lot more need for collaboration, for effective implementation and enforcement of all the rules that have been put in place to ensure that seafarer, seafarer rights are protected.
So to see a difference on the ground now as far as sanctions are concerned and, and developments of this nature, there is clearly an, an, an impact.
It's very difficult to quantify because not all the data is, is clearly available.
For example, the shadow fleet, as it's often referred to, there are very no, no clear numbers, there are estimates, there's not a clear definition either what this entails.
So it's all a little bit difficult, not to mention that in some cases there is of course fraudulent ship registration, which again makes this situation difficult.
So to answer your question, we cannot give you specific numbers.
We know that seafarers face particularly difficult condition and there is a global seafarer shortage for many years, but that is not improved by these factors.
I hope that answers this.
Yes, hand in the room, Jamie.
Jamie from Associated Press.
I see in your press release that you mentioned that global geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies and climate factors are, are redrawing shipping routes and, and, and driving up costs.
I wonder if you could just specifically talk about the shifting trade policies.
Could, could you call a spade a spade and say that's because of Trump administration policies?
And and secondly, if I could, if I could just also get you to talk a little bit about emissions possibilities this year.
So could that have a beneficial impact on the environment?
It's not for us to comment on trade policy of countries, but of course we observe certain, certain effects and certain impacts.
And it is true, there have been a raft of tariff measures initiated by the US administration, but there have been response measures.
And what we all observe, everybody, and certainly the members of the news media as well, is that it's rapidly shifting.
So it's very difficult to even know what the situation is.
And uncertainty and lack of civility is never good for anybody.
So this is really what this refers to.
And as far as emissions are concerned, everything always has two different sides.
So for example, these RE routings, apart from driving up costs and delays and and and and so on, of course have also given rise to increased emissions from shipping.
But emissions from shipping develop effectively in line with increases or otherwise in in demand.
So depending on how how shipping develops the demand for shipping and of course also routings that will affect emissions.
And then of course it also depends how the industry responds and that includes both technological questions and and developments and advances and regulatory processes.
So we don't know if the net 0 framework will be adopted.
If it will, that could put in place certainly strategic developments that that will make a difference over time.
If it is not adopted, then the question arises, what else will there be?
Coming back from a conference in in London recently, one of the concerns expressed by members of the shipping industry particularly was a proliferation of national solutions, which nobody is favouring because a global industry needs global rules.
We have a couple more online I see here.
Felix Zasmanhausen, if you also can take the floor.
Yes, thank you very much for the presentation and the report.
Felix Zasmanhausen from the German newspaper Indeed at tag.
So you stated in your report that the least developed and developing countries are most affected by the challenges facing maritime shipping and trade.
Could you elaborate a little bit more on the countries that you have in mind and that are most affected by the price volatility on the one hand and what the immediate consequences are?
You mentioned food insecurity, but maybe there's there's some more context if you appreciate it.
And the second question is that shipping companies still seem to make good profits in the current situation.
Could you comment on that specifically regarding the costs for developing countries on the other hand and what you expect for the industry and the near future?
Thank you very much for your question.
Well, why are we talking about small island developing States and least developed countries?
These are specific groups recognised in the UN system and incidentally also in the in the IMO developments they are particularly referred to.
These countries are particularly dependent on international transport links.
For the small island developing states it's obvious they are sea locked.
So for them ports and and airports are veritable life lines.
For the least developed countries, most of which are in Africa, the name says it, they are the least developed countries.
They lack capacity in in on on many fronts.
And as you know, increases in costs always translate at the end of the day, it is who, who pays these, it's the users of services, it's the consumers at the end of the day.
So this is This is why these countries, these groups of countries are particularly worth highlighting in this context.
And they have of course, also limited export bases.
And, and you know, there are things my colleague may wish to add on this one, but I, I forgot the second question.
What was the second question was on the shipping companies making, Ah, yes, shipping companies making, making profit.
This is a very, this is actually a very interesting question because everything, of course, has two sides.
Every, every coin has two sides.
And when freight rates go up, this is a good thing for the shipping industry and good for them.
But we're looking at it from the perspective of what shipping does for the world.
And we all depend on functioning shipping links our trade and development system all across the world depends on all of this running well.
This is this is what we're building our our hopes and our prosperity on.
So the, the, the perspective that we want to highlight is that it is important to keep costs generally low because this is of benefit to all the users, all the countries that depend on shipping providing the services, food energy and food security is of course something that it's not black and white.
So not immediately Costco up food security is is at threat, but of course where there is food insecurity that is being exacerbated no question by cost and also by supply constraints and supply problems.
I would like to give over to my hand over to my colleague here because she may wish to add something.
Thank you for the question.
Regarding the the groupings or the countries that are generally the hardest hit by the transport cost increases and the disruptions.
We have covered this extensively in the 2023-2024 review of maritime transport.
Actually, we have had different analysis conducted to look at how the Black Sea disruption affected the grain flows and therefore the cost and the Red Sea disruption as well.
We have looked at the implications of increased freight rates on on on consumer prices, on the imports of processed food items and these were grouped by categories of vulnerable economies.
We could break this down by individual countries, but the the the figures we have in aggregate is always show systematically a higher impact on the least the small island developing states, the least developed countries and those that are small economies open and depending heavily on trade or on maritime transport for their trade.
So this is a general pattern that has been recurring when looking at the impact of increased transport costs due to disruptions on the food prices and on the imports and consumer prices in general and inflation.
We go back online, We have Olivia Le Parlez from Reuters news agency, please.
Thank you everybody for this briefing.
I was just wondering if I could have a bit more detail on something mentioned in the report about trade diversion effects and new preferential trade agreements potentially offering opportunities for some developing countries kind of aid with the marginal recovery from this year's performance.
I, I was just wondering if you had any more details or explanation of what you are forecasting there?
Yes, thank you for the question regarding the potential trade diversion that may result from here.
Referring to the policy measures, the tariffs and the shifting trade routes, this is something that has been already seen.
For example, in 2018 when there were the tariff increases involving China, the United States, we have seen a trade being rerouted, being captured by some other economies and some trade was lost, but other was rerouted and captured.
So these are the kind of opportunities we were referring to and these are were mentioned actually in the report is that we know that when there are this kind of disruptions that generally there is.
And with maritime transport a rerouting happening or changing in the deployment of shipping capacity of shipping services and countries that were not necessarily major players emerging on this on those trade routes.
And we've seen this in the case of Vietnam, for example, which has taken greater share of, of of trade flows between basically East Asia and the United States.
So this this is what we were referring to.
Another mention in the report was about opportunities that may arise from redeployment of shipping capacity, a reconfiguration of port calls that may give an opportunity to some ports in developing countries, including in this case, for example, we were referring to the Caribbean to emerge as transshipment ports in order to care for the new flows that may be generated by rerouting towards the United States market.
So these are in general the, the kind of, yeah, reshuffling if you want a rerouting of trade, a recapture of trade that we had in mind when we were looking at this developments.
And on new preferential agreements, I don't think we had a thorough or deep analysis of how the preferential agreements would work.
What is clear is that in the case of renegotiated trade terms that countries that have more preferential access or benefit from lower overall tariffs would necessarily benefit from this kind of opportunities.
And what we see now with the overall increased tariff, average tariff and here referring to the United States is we see that a lot of vulnerable economies in particular are the ones that are hardest hit by some of these tariffs.
So when we talk about preferential agreements, it's generally the ability as well to negotiate more favourable terms.
And and this is what we as as way of the recommendation is to to look at this preferential trade agreements as a way to negotiate better access, especially for developing countries are the most vulnerable.
Thank you so much for for addressing these with three more questions at a good pace.
I hope correct in respecting the order.
Irene Linian from I think it's El Mundo in Spain.
Well, actually it's not El Mundo.
I just wanted to ask you about the report's conclusion that says that European Union's carbon pricing is already beginning to affect transport code structures and the profile of the global feed and competitiveness across all vessel segments.
So I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit more on this.
I mean, what, what, what you're referring to and how is this affecting all of this?
Yes, thank you for the question.
Yes, regarding the EUETS and EU fuel EU, basically these are the two measures that we had covered in, in, in the review The, the this comment was about, yeah, a shift in the structure of the transport costs because compliance costs would have to be reflected in the calculations.
And what we see already are the surcharges to cover for some of these compliance costs as well as of course the penalties provided for in the case of the fuel EU measure.
And in terms of the competitiveness, because there are different rates applying to different types of vessels and also in some cases all the vessels, especially as regards tankers are those that would receive higher penalties.
So these aspects are of course affecting the overall cost structure and how ship segments compete or compare to each other, including within the same segment if you have older tankers versus younger tankers.
So that would make a difference in terms of the overall cost compliance costs for these kind of vessels.
But in terms of more detail as to how these calculations are being done, we haven't looked into that.
We have only looked at how shipping companies are already applying some charges in order to cover some of these additional costs.
Thank you for that question from Elmer Kantil.
And I think, yes, we have one more online.
I'd like a little bit more detail on what you mentioned in the beginning about the route rerouting and away from the Gulf region and going through the Cape of Good Hope.
What have been some of the benefits?
Can you give us some concrete examples how this has translated into benefits for ports in in African countries?
And secondly, I've got a a second question with reference.
You mentioned global industry needs, global rules.
Do you have any recommendations?
Do you think there needs to be a new round of trade liberalisation in the WTO on shipping or what?
Regarding the impact of vessel rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, it did of course create some business opportunities for some African ports, in particular in terms of bankering services, restocking.
So these these are the kind of services that were not normally not provided by this ports, but here they are.
They are servicing these ports that there's ships that are calling other ports.
We have for example, the case of Mauritius, we've seen that in terms of the the traffic itself, there has been some increase in traffic for some ports.
The problem is that in order to capture the full benefit, the ports have to be ready for it.
Because this was a sudden shift.
It was not always an easy matter to to really make them the most of this re routed traffic because of the infrastructure limitation and the generally speaking the the the capacity of of these ports to handle on a sudden shift this kind of volume.
So the biggest gain was really in terms of these ancillary services that are providing by ports to the ships.
We have observed liner shipping connectivity improvement for some ports or for some countries.
However, it is very difficult to say whether there is a direct causal relationship between the increase in in this connectivity and the reshuffling.
Often these are related to increased capacity of ship to handle larger vessels and this is in particular in the case of the West African ports.
But overall, some of the increased traffic was observed in terms of volumes observed more in South African ports than generally speaking by broader list of African ports.
And I'm going to just respond to your second question about global industry leads, global rules.
Well, shipping is about as global as you can as you can get.
It's highly interdependent because obviously ships go from port to port and they go across the globe.
Food and energy in bulk has to be shipped, which is why 80% of World Trade world merchandise trades by volume, goes by sea.
And there are many, many actors.
There are many, many participants in that trade.
So it's not a sector, it's not an industry as such.
It's the whole ecosystem, if you will.
And obviously everything to function well needs to be somehow organised, regulated.
And it is, this is certainly one area where we are certainly at one with the shipping industry, which highlights always that it being a global industry, it needs global rules.
And that doesn't refer to the WTO, nothing of, of of that kind.
It just refers to the rules that govern the operations of shipping.
So this is, this has got to do with safety, security, marine pollution, prevention and, and control, seafarer rights and seafarer protection.
And all of this in the interest really of the countries and the stakeholders that global shipping serves and maritime transport in general.
So I don't know if that answers your question.
Happy to follow up if you are to, to develop this further if if you wish, but this is what I would, would would offer as an answer.
And and while John, things are following up or not, I think we have one last question for the time being.
We get it via the chat because there was some technical issue.
It's from from MFP, from from the Moroccan Press Agency.
And I hope I'm reading this right correctly.
It refers to the mention of Morocco's portnet.
So the question is in what way this single window system can facilitate maritime exchanges.
And the the journalist asking is Nuruddin Hassani.
Yes, it is actually presented in in chapter 4 of the review as a one.
What I mean here by the port net system in Morocco is presented as a good practise, a good example that to showcase to other developing countries.
So it is really well explained as to how the system was developed and how it has really evolved over time in order to to generate generate a lot of benefits including transparency, coordination, collaboration across industry, the port industry.
And the benefits of of this kind of systems have been really underscored in Chapter 4, where analysis has dug into to to see how the presence of such systems can improve liner shipping, connectivity, logistics performance and generally speaking trade and the compliance as well.
This is also a a way of ensuring compliance with the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement.
So the benefits of such systems, of course, cannot be overemphasised.
And the port net example has been detailed explained in detail in Chapter 4.
I'm not sure we have any follow up questions, additional questions neither from the room nor online.
Everything seems to be covered.
So you were very clear and comprehensive, which gives us just enough time to to wrap this up.
Thank you again for the the interest in covering the review of maritime transport as you've seen global angles, but also concrete examples and best practises of takeaways and of course, the recommendations and priorities that the report and its authors have shared with you.
Thank you very much to all those and as usually we, we stand by for any follow up that might be of course emerging as you keep digesting the report and covering this news conference.