WMO Press conference: El Niño Update

Powerful El Niño heightens extreme-weather risks through 2027, as countries brace for impact - WMO

Fuelled by extraordinarily warm waters across the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño climate pattern is expected to intensify in the coming months. Forecasters are almost certain that it will persist through February next year, with unusually warm conditions expected across the globe.

“These forecasts show an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 per cent that El Niño will persist through to February 2027,” said Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to journalists in Geneva.

“El Niño is firmly established in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in the region are already well above average and are continuing to rise,” warned Ms. Saulo.

Beneath the surface, an enormous reservoir of unusually warm water could further strengthen El Niño. “Sub-surface ocean temperatures are also exceptionally high, and in some areas, more than eight degrees Celsius above normal during July and early August,” the WMO chief said. “This means that there is a huge pool of very warm ocean waters that will fuel the intensity of El Niño.”

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the naturally occurring climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), marked by shifts in sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and corresponding changes in the atmosphere above.

The phenomena can disrupt weather patterns around the globe. El Niño typically develops every two to seven years, when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm. The warming releases heat into the atmosphere and can bring drought and extreme heat to some regions while increasing the risk of heavy rainfall, flooding and tropical cyclones in others.

The current El Niño is expected to peak towards the end of this year, according to the UN weather agency’s latest report released Thursday, with its climate impacts likely to persist well into next year. “The powerful 2023-2024 El Niño contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record. We should not be surprised if this record is broken,” said Ms. Saulo.

Scientists have not established that human-caused climate change is making El Niño more frequent or intense. But a warmer atmosphere and ocean can amplify some of its effects by strengthening the heat and moisture that fuel extreme weather.

“This El Niño will deliver a major blow to communities, economies, and supply chains across the globe,” the WMO chief stressed. “Many sectors will be affected: agriculture, trade, fisheries, health, energy, transport, water resources, disaster management, to name but a few.”

“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and extreme weather,” she insisted.

The UN weather agency has launched a “major mobilization” with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services which are on the frontline of delivering forecasts, early warnings and services to protect lives and livelihoods. The agency is calling for exceptional preparedness and response measures to reduce the risk of deaths, displacement and environmental damage. Early-warning systems have been strengthened, alongside efforts to deploy medical assistance in advance. But the expected strength of El Niño is raising particular concerns for vulnerable communities.

Ms. Saulo explained that preparedness means making decisions before the impacts are felt. Farmers, for example, may opt for crop varieties that can withstand drier conditions, while countries that rely on hydropower can use reservoirs to manage energy supplies and availability.

The duration and severity of El Niño’s impacts in individual countries will depend on their capacity to anticipate risks and adapt decisions accordingly. Ms. Saulo said that across Latin America and the Caribbean, UN partners are rolling out preparedness plans in countries traditionally hit hard by El Niño. Anticipatory measures include cash assistance, drought- and flood-resistant seeds, livestock protection, and flood safeguards.

"El Niño does not have to be a recipe for disaster. We have the focus, the foresight, to save lives and protect livelihoods," the WMO Secretary-General concluded.

Ends

WMO Press conference: El Niño Update

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