UNDP press conference 8 December 2020

Thank you very much for for joining today.

I'm pleased to introduce you to my colleagues, Cassie Flynn.

Yes, yeah, you can see Cassie.

So Cassie is a fantastic climate advisor at UNDP, working very closely with the Executive office, and she's managing the Climate Promise programme and she's going to run you through the preliminary result on the NDC submission from the 115 countries who are part of that programme.

She's going to speak for about, you know, 12 minutes and then we'll have 15 minutes for Q&A.

Let's see, the floor is yours.

Thank you so very much Sarah, and it's lovely to see all of you.

I hope that I hope that all your, your families and, and your loved ones are, are safe and healthy during, during this time.

As as Sarah mentioned, I am sort of here to talk to you about NDCS and really as we are now just days away from the Climate Ambition Summit, it is this moment I think that everyone is really starting to think about, well, how have the past five years gone when it comes to the Paris Agreement?

We are reaching a critical milestone.

This, this five year mark represents the time when countries are are meant to be resubmitting of course these these NDC's.

And so in my role as head of UNDP Climate Promise, we are supporting 115 developing countries to enhance their NDC's and this includes 37 LDC's, 28 small island developing states, 14 higher emitters and 42 fragile states.

And so with this, it is actually the the largest programme in the world that supports countries to enhance their NDC's.

And so as we've been trying to reflect really on this five year anniversary, we have really started to look at what are what are the trends, what are we seeing that is happening?

What are the ways that we can learn from this and start to think about ways that we can help to increase ambition over the next 5-10 and 30 years?

And So what I really wanted to talk to you about today is what we're seeing in terms of the immense legacy of leadership that is happening with developing countries.

And this, this way that developing countries are really starting to, to step up to the plate when it comes to their NDC's.

And so I really wanted to talk to you really about 3 trends, 3 big trends that we're seeing when it comes to when it comes to what's going on with, with NDC's.

But first, to give you just a sense of where we are sort of globally with the climate promise when it comes to levels of submission and timelines is a question we get a lot of the 115 countries in the climate promise, they do represent 22 1/2% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

So that's nearly 1/4 of the world's emissions.

And we have of the 115, of course, as we've seen trending globally, we have seen a number of delays because of the COVID crisis.

And so a number of countries now are starting to submit in early next year as opposed to the original deadline, which which of course had been this year.

This impact of COVID, while it while it has really in some ways really caused us to readjust our our timeline and our pathway for NDC.

It's also I think been an opportunity for countries to increase their ambition and for countries to really come to the table with their NDC with something that may even have been more robust than than it was otherwise.

And so I want to give you a few, a few sort of insights and and trends on, on this.

First is that when it comes to when it comes to NDCS, we are seeing developing countries really try to be, really try to lead the way on ambition.

And within the climate promise, we have 80% of countries plan to increase their mitigation ambition.

So it means that 80% of this 115 are really looking at how they can be more aggressive in their, in their plans to, to reduce emissions.

And then when it comes to adaptation, increasing resilience to climate change, we have nearly every single country, so 97% plan to increase adaptation ambition.

And So what we're seeing here is that despite often developing countries being small in size or maybe not having the the impact on on global greenhouse gas emissions, their contributions are, are are often with small countries virtually negligible.

You are seeing them continue to lead the way.

You are seeing them be ambitious, you are seeing them really start to put together plans and start to link these plans to their development strategies in a way that that is really helping them to achieve some pretty big goals.

And so I can give you a number of examples based on this.

We, we've already seen, for example, Bhutan and Suriname come forward and, and even Bhutan is, is carbon negative.

And so they're, but they are not stopping there.

They're still trying to push to be as ambitious as possible.

We have a number of countries, Marshall Islands, Suriname, Jamaica, Cuba who have also come forward with enhanced NDC's even though they are some of the most vulnerable.

Another piece of this is that often developing countries are are really focusing on this, this five year increment.

So within the, the, the Paris Agreement, of course we, we have sort of the, the NDC's that represent the five years and then we have long term strategies that represent this net 0 commitment by mid century, by 2050.

And the idea is that you really need both.

And I, I heard a really great analogy about this is that, you know, a net 0 commitment is, is almost like you want to say that you are writing a book, whereas an NDC is you are writing the chapter of that book.

And So what you really need is you need that long term goal, but you do need these five year increments to keep you moving forward, to keep you writing those chapters within this long term story that you are creating in this long term commitment.

And with developing countries you are seeing some movement in this way, this linkage between the NDCS and long term strategies that that is really quite leading the way.

The second trend that I really wanted to talk to you about is on green recovery.

I think, you know, five years ago when we all were sort of in the rooms with the Paris Agreement and that the adoption happened that we would no one thought five years.

Not only would the world be dealing with a climate crisis, but it would be dealing with a COVID crisis, an economic crisis, and of course, increased outcry over issues of injustice and racism that are all really starting to shape the dynamic of how the world is interacting with each other.

And so this idea of of a green recovery is something that that is very, very important.

How can climate action really start to be at the heart of how countries are envisioning their future and in particular a very, very important role for NDCS that if NDCS are, are these commitments that mark five years well, how can that be a blueprint for a green recovery?

How can an NDC that is promoting something like clean energy or increased resilience to storms be able to help inform how a country is thinking about how it wants to promote green jobs or how it wants to protect communities from the vulnerabilities that are really multiplying between climate and COVID?

And so within the climate promise, again, these these 115 countries, we are seeing a really interesting trend and this is that over half of them have already made the linkages between NDC enhancement and green recovery that in a very short amount of time, I mean, really we're we're talking a matter of months in many cases, these NDC's have become a key building block to this green recovery.

And this is really important because in the world of climate, we talk so much about how climate and NDCS and the commitments in the Paris Agreement really need to be informing the development of a country, need to really be affecting and helping to inform the way a country is envisioning its future.

And with COVID, essentially we have seen that happen in, in real time that instead of thinking, well, COVID actually has had, I think in many cases in the early days of COVID, we thought, oh, is this going to slow us down?

And in many cases, I think what's happened now is this has speed us up because these choices about what countries are making when it comes to green recovery are happening within the climate conversations and vice versa, the climate conversations are happening often in the context of of COVID.

And so there are a couple of really, really good examples of this.

We are seeing, for example, out of Costa Rica, they have a national decarbonization plan, They have an ambitious NDC, and they've really started to think about how they can integrate this within COVID-19 economic models.

That as they're starting to envision what this green recovery looks like and how they're going to start to really protect and create jobs, that the NDC is something that directly informs that.

And then likewise with Nigeria.

Nigeria, of course, is, is, is a major economy in the world and they have created an economic sustainability plan that really cuts across a number of issues, agriculture, public works, housing, a number of ways that they're looking at how how they're going to address COVID recovery and the NDC.

And this idea of sort of investments in in climate infrastructure has become a very critical piece of this.

This national recovery plan is this opportunity to really bring together what the country is thinking when it comes to climate ambition.

So it's a really interesting piece right now that that that we are seeing sort of happen in real time over the course of these months.

So that is the the second trend this this linkage to to recovery.

And the third trend that I want to highlight here that that we are seeing is that NDCS, this round of NDCS, the second generation of NDCS is shaping up to be far more inclusive than they were five years ago.

And this is in particular what we're seeing for gender and youth.

So many countries as a part of the, the climate promise, all of these developing countries that are, that are really starting to shape their NDC's and their, their long term commitments are seeing inclusivity and seeing having all voices at the table as a way that you get this **** quality NDC.

And this of course contributes to ambition, It contributes to accountability and it addresses, I think something that is really starting to become a source of discussion more and more, which is climate justice.

And so to give you 2 sort of examples of this, climate promise countries have overwhelmingly prioritised gender.

We are seeing 91% of climate promise countries have included gender responsive activities within their thinking on on the NDC's.

And this includes everything from effective governance to inclusion in planning processes.

And also sort of developing these policy frameworks that ensure that women and girls are are not just included in sort of the the moment of the decision, but also have the support in the long term to help bring that NDC to life.

So that is the first piece.

The other that is really interesting is on youth.

We have seen a dramatic increase in the inclusion of youth within Climate Promise countries and the first generation of NDC's youth was was talked about in many about 40% of NDC's.

It had a 40% of NDC's had a direct reference to children or youth.

But now with Climate Promise, we have seen that jump from 40% to 75%, that 75% of Climate Promise NDC's are prioritising youth.

And this is really interesting because over the last five years, of course we have seen immense levels of engagement by young people.

We have seen young people be leaders.

We have seen young people really start to engage with the the way that governments are developing their NDC's in a completely new way.

And this is really important.

And I think that this has also helped countries to begin to be more inclusive of youth and start to think of of young people as not just people sitting at the table, but also people that can help to ensure that this NDC happens.

That they can be agents of change, that they need to be supported by this NDC, that they are directly impacted by what this NDC has within it.

And this is seeing them as a key part of this.

So these are the three big trends that that I really wanted to to emphasise here in terms of being able to have this this level of ambition with NDCS and this link to long term strategies, the link to green recovery and this level of inclusion.

And I think what's interesting about all three of these when you bring them together is that you are really seeing countries begin to think about what does their future look like?

And what are the ways that in particular, at this moment in time, when it comes to COVID, when it comes to economic concerns, when it comes to concerns over justice, countries are starting to think about how does this all come together in a way that the NDC can help provide a structure to so that this, the action and ambition can be realised for populations around the world.

So I will I, I will wrap up there and I'm happy to talk about this more.

I'm happy to to answer any questions that that people may have.

Thank you, Cassie.

So I'm I'm checking the list of the participant and checking whether we would have some.

[Other language spoken]

I see that Emma from Reuters has some question, if we can give her the floor please.

[Other language spoken]

Yes, thank you very much for that question for Cassie.

[Other language spoken]

Do you think that the trend?

The aspect of missing the 2020 target, do you think that will be universal as in will wealthy countries outside the scheme also be missing it?

And I take your point about, you know, the COVID being a reason for the delay, but also a reason for some of the additional ambition.

But can you talk to us a bit more about the your interpretation of the COVID delays?

I mean, what is this?

[Other language spoken]

Bureaucracy.

Being slow because of the pandemic or is there something else going on here?

Is there lack of momentum due to the cancelled summit due to COVID?

Due to COVID or is there anything else going on here are people?

Waiting for the.

US to get on board with the new administration.

I'm just curious if you could elaborate a bit more on the reasons for the delays in your opinion?

[Other language spoken]

Yeah, happy to and and thank you, Emma.

To, to start with maybe the, the first question in terms of these delays and, and what we're seeing sort of across the board, both within the climate promise and out sort of outside of the climate promise, including the, the higher emitters and, and developed countries.

We have seen initially we saw, you know, really when the impacts of COVID started being felt, you know, by, by sort of springtime.

The, the idea was, I think that a lot of countries said, OK, well, we're going to get through this and we're going to, we're going to delay our NDC by a couple of months.

And then I think as the situations in varying countries started to intensify that they started delaying it more.

And while in the beginning, I think that there was essentially the the immediate response to COVID, I mean, immediately you had to start thinking about how do you keep people safe?

How do you how do you keep people from sort of, you know, falling quite, quite I'll through being able to support with with medical care and and so forth and governments, I think we're very rightfully looking to that as their priority.

But now, as the conversation has gone in some cases from sort of response toward, toward recovery conversation, we have really seen climate be more of a part of this.

And we've seen this around the world, but in particular within developing countries.

I think you're seeing this idea that, that within the context of COVID that a recovery can be really empowered by climate, that it can be something that that can fully sort of integrate with, with a climate goal and, and help to help to address some of these exacerbated vulnerabilities with kind of solutions that really multiply themselves.

So I, I think that there's a really, there's, there's a really important piece piece there in terms of the, the delay.

I think that we are going to see a number of the ND CS really start to come in early next year.

I think countries have have have been having these conversations and now and certainly what we're seeing with the climate promise is that that we do expect a big a number to come in this year.

You know, we're still expecting about, I would say about 30 to come in this year, but then more will come in sort of early, early and mid next year as we build momentum toward COP 26.

And then your question on the, the COVID delays and, and what they kind of look like.

And as I mentioned before, we, we are seeing through everything from this immediate response and governments really being all hands on deck to be able to respond to the crisis.

But also, I think seeing here now the this idea that a community that was perhaps vulnerable to climate impacts is doubly as vulnerable when it comes to COVID.

And so I think governments have been really trying to think about how can we better protect the people in our country?

How can we ensure that this vulnerability is addressed and sort of the immediate and medium term and then as that has evolved, we have been seen this longer term discussion about what what the future holds.

So I hope that answers your question and and I think I see another one from from Megan.

[Other language spoken]

Megan, you, you have the floor.

Hi, thanks very much.

Just to follow on from that, you mentioned about a higher percentage of countries now being able to or planning to raise their ambition on mitigation and adaptation since COVID hit.

Can you explain a little bit more about where those extra emissions cuts are going to be coming from and, and, and why and also how they're planning to finance those that that increase in ambition?

Because this is a time when a lot of those countries are struggling quite hard in terms of funding, you know, capital exodus and and debt, etcetera.

And some of these emissions reductions are conditional on on financing.

[Other language spoken]

Really, really good, good questions.

When it comes to raising ambition within the ND CS within the climate promise, we are seeing really three big three big areas and and 1 is energy.

Of course we know that clean energy is, is in nearly every single NDC.

And as countries are thinking about raising ambition, that is often sort of the first.

The first place is energy, but then there are two others and one is adaptation and resilience.

As I mentioned, nearly every single country within the climate promise has increased their level of ambition when it comes to when it comes to adaptation.

And I think this is also what we're seeing in terms of, again, this, this idea of, of communities being so highly vulnerable to climate and to COVID.

And so thinking about what makes a country more resilient to these impacts, I think it's something that is is being really prioritised within these NDCS.

And then the third piece is our forests and land use.

We are seeing a lot on forest and land use, nature based solutions and being able to see forests and nature as as a way to not only sort of reduce emissions but but increase resilience.

So when it comes to thinking about ambition sort of in that concrete way within an NDC, you really have sort of those, those are kind of the three biggest areas that, that are trending.

I think I think right now within within the NDC your conversation, conversation.

Your question on finance is a, is a, is a really important one because as countries now are thinking about their big commitments when it comes to climate, of course, it is now in a constrained economic situation.

And we are seeing this play out, I think in real time in some of the conversations around stimulus packages.

Of course, we know that a number of countries have, have put forward stimulus packages and these stimulus packages in many ways represent the big bets that countries are making.

They're, they're representing the, the, the parts of their economy where they are really kind of going to double down in terms of having that inform their, their future.

And so within those stimulus packages, we are seeing some countries start to really think about, you know, how can we drive more funding?

How can we drive more investment into some of the, the big bets when it comes to climate?

And so how do we actually help to create, you know, a new clean energy system around a country and driving investment, but using that stimulus package as a way to do that, that also links to the creation of green jobs that also helps the economy to recover from COVID.

So I think that this, this first place with, with stimulus packages is, is, is a really important discussion that's going on right now.

You've seen some countries really want to dive into this.

You've seen other countries start to think about, OK, well, what do we need in terms of making, making these, these connections?

But beyond that stimulus, there is of course I am the the conversation within the UNFCCC process about public finance and about what it looks like to to have public finance increase.

We had the 100 billion goal in 2020.

And of course the conversations about what the next big goal or is going to be our, our, our due.

And so being able to have countries around the table really start to think about that.

And then the role of private finance, What is the role of private finance?

How can you create a good environment for investment for these NDCS?

And how can you ensure that the goals within these NDCS are, are achievable at the scale and the speed that we need to achieve them.

And that requires some some absolute investment from from the private sector.

So I hope that helps to answer a bit of a bit of your questions.

[Other language spoken]

Paula, you've got the floor.

[Other language spoken]

I'm, I'm sorry I missed the beginning of the presentation.

But first of all, I was wondering is there a document that you could share with us regarding your findings that that would be really nice.

[Other language spoken]

And I'm just wondering also you mentioned that there are a number of countries that are really considering seriously introducing or that happens, you know, looking at the the impact on climate of their the decisions that they're taking now for COVID recovery.

I'm just wondering if you could name, you know, a few of these champions, if you if you could.

And then I might have another question after that.

[Other language spoken]

Yeah, we can certainly we have a regular update report of the climate promise that we produce about every six weeks.

Something that we've tried to do is really closely track a lot of the information and the data from from this work.

And so that that goes into this report.

So happy to to share that with you.

And it's got a lot of these, these trends in it.

In terms of your question about countries that are sort of, you know, demonstrating a lot of leadership when it comes to the link between COVID and green recovery.

I had, I don't know if you you heard it earlier, but I had mentioned Costa Rica is certainly one that is leading the way on this.

They have a national decarbonization plan that they're linking their NDC to.

Nigeria is another leader on this starting to think about, do they have a this big plan that includes agriculture and housing and and other parts of their economy that they're really trying to look at when it comes to when it comes to climate.

Nigeria's also looking at the role of green jobs very closely.

How do they jump start an their economy when it comes to when it comes to green jobs?

Another one that I'll mention to you that I didn't mention before is is, is Mongolia.

Mongolia has a, a, a 2030 vision that they are that they are promoting that they are looking at and really wanting to link their NDC to, to that when it comes to when it comes to recovery.

So those are those are three, but there, there are more so and in the report you'll see a number of of examples on on them with more with more details.

So I of the major economies, the major polluters are there, you know any countries that that you can name that that have been moving in in the direction that you describe?

Well, for for the climate promise, we are dealing with, you know, with 115 developing countries.

And so within that there are 14 that we consider higher emitters and those are countries that are more than .5% of global emissions.

We also have a, a number of of countries that we think are kind of on the cusp of making turning into a higher emitter, which we are, which we are closely tracking.

But of course, I think you know, some countries, I mean Nigeria as I mentioned before is, is one of those countries to to watch quite, quite closely.

And I can get back to you with with some of some of the others.

And and also, Cassie, if you agree, we could share a technical note that we prepare, we prepared for you for that briefer that includes a lot of statistic and I could reshare as well the latest reports on the climate promise.

There's there's tonnes of really good example of champions and and some details on ****, **** emitters among the group.

Is there any any last question before we wrap up?

Yeah, I can see that Paula has another question.

[Other language spoken]

Thanks for taking the other question.

I'm just wondering, I mean this, this may be a little bit beyond your report, but do you see a conversation taking place within, you know, amongst the, the aid sector, aid and you know, development sector in trying to, to make their response to, to disaster greener?

I mean, is that conversation, do you see that conversation taking taking place?

You mean in terms of the the actual response greener or sort of the recovery of the?

In the in the the disaster humanitarian disaster response, I mean, instead of just the sort of knee jerk response to to actually be thinking longer term and in providing, you know, green, green and, you know, climates responsible solution.

[Other language spoken]

I mean, I think that, you know, what we have seen in the world now and, and I think this also might contribute to why we are, are seeing also this this increase in levels of ambition when it comes to adaptation is, you know, people are looking at the world and they're seeing wildfires, they are seeing more increased storms, they are seeing drought, they are seeing sea level rise and trends happen around them.

People are are really seeing a lot of these impacts and I think that when a climate shock hits, so, you know, category 5 storm, I think that, you know, whereas before sometimes there was an attitude of OK, well, we just need to rebuild and you know, and we'll be OK that that if our, you know, airport was wiped out by a category 5 storm, then we need to rebuild that airport and then we can, you know, move along.

[Other language spoken]

I think what more and more countries are realising is that those category 5 storms are going to come every year or every couple of years.

And how do you start to think about rebuilding?

How do you start to think about recovering in that new context?

Also, what are the things that you need in terms of being able to protect the communities within a country in the immediate term of those of those shocks, but also in the longer term when it comes to knowing that these shocks are, are going to come more, more and more often alongside a lot of the long term impacts that that we are, that we are seeing.

And so I, I do think there is a shift here.

I, I, I do think that there is a different way that we are tackling this to give you, to give you another example with the wildfires in both Australia and in the United States.

And you know, not only is it about addressing those wildfires, but we're already starting to see more conversations about the number of kids that may have asthma or may have difficulties with their health because of the impact of those wildfires.

And starting to look at what, you know, what does, you know, what does this mean?

And so I think here what, what's really important is this is, is, if I could say here a bit of a, you know, a call to action is the idea that that we really need to be incorporating climate into all of these decisions.

And that countries need the ability to be able to make these connections, both sort of at the policy level, but also to be able to have the finance to be able to implement these solutions in the short, medium and, and longer terms.

And so making this, this, this, this shift, making this sort of this, this, this different way of, of addressing the reality of the world right now is something that's very important.

[Other language spoken]

I see that we've got like one last question from Megan and I think after we'll have to wrap up.

Megan, the floor is yours.

[Other language spoken]

Yeah, it was just to to ask about the importance of of sticking to this 2020 deadline in terms of submitting the NDC's.

Because you know what, whatever is realistic or not, the UN climate chief, for one, has been quite adamant about the need to submit the NDC's by the end of this year.

And a large group of developing countries called the Climate Vulnerable Forum has also been campaigning around the same thing.

And yet, you know, you're saying that more of this big group of developing countries, obviously they're not, I don't know exactly which ones have a membership of the CVF or not are saying, you know, that they need to delay.

And I'm just wondering whether you would defend a delay under these circumstances to say that this is a positive thing because it means that the actual document, which will be, you know, what's worked on from for the next 5 years will be a more effective, better, more ambitious documents because, you know, they've taken a little bit more time to, to work on it.

[Other language spoken]

I, I think here what's really important is, is we need urgency and we need scale, right?

Like we need countries to be acting as, as quickly as possible if we are going to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

And, and I think what's interesting about this is, is, is even though, you know, we throw around kind of 1.5° and, and we need to reach this goal of 1.5°, what that 1.5 really stands for is a complete and utter transformation of the world.

And the speed and the scale at which we have to do that is unprecedented.

You know, the good news is that we have all of the solutions.

We know what we need to do.

We know what it takes to have clean energy.

We know what it takes to increase our resilience to, to climate impacts.

We know what it takes to protect nature, but we have to do it faster and bigger than we have ever done it before.

And the stakes could not be higher.

And so I think this, this call for urgency and this call for countries to not delay with their NDC's is a really important one because we, we have no time to waste it.

It is now.

And, and even though COVID has, has affected the world and, and, and turned everything upside down, the impacts of climate change have not stopped.

And if anything, they are only accelerating.

And so I think that this urgency is, is very important.

And alongside that, we need the ambition, we need the scale at which countries to countries take action to, to be, to match what, what the challenge is.

And so the idea that countries can be ambitious within these NDCS and within COVID, being able to think about ambition in a, in a bit of a new way and being able to think about how what ambition looks like in the context of recovering from a global pandemic, in the context of an economic crisis, This is a very new thing.

And so and so I think that there's there's two sides to this that are really, really important.

If we're going to be able to achieve the goals of of the Paris Agreement.

Thank you very much, Cassie.

I'm sorry to all of you.

We need to wrap up because Cassie has another meeting just after that one.

But thank you so much for participating and thank you so much also for making it so lively.

Thank you, Cassie, and I hope to see you very soon.

Thank you everyone, I appreciate it.