UNCTAD press conference on Gaza 25 November 2020

So good morning everyone and we're happy to welcome you to this press conference.

Usually you remember in in September we issued a report on Palestine economy.

This time we will focus on Gaza.

This report is on the embargo until tonight at 5:00 PM GM T6 PMG.

The time the results of this study is that we see that the Gaza economy is close to collapse and is isolated from from the rest of the world.

I will now hand over the floor to Richard Kozurai, Director of the Globalisation and Development Strategies Division in UMTAD, and Mahmoud E Khifif with the Coordinator of the UMTAD Programme of Assistance to the Palestinian People and author of this report.

[Other language spoken]

Richard, you have the floor over to you.

Thank you, Catherine.

Good morning to everybody.

Just a few introductory remarks really as Matt Mood will present the report.

As Catherine said, we we launched the our own report back in September and there were a lot of questions then about the extent of COVID-19.

And at that point in time, at least Gaza looked to be reasonably in reasonably good shape.

I mean, there's a lot of hope that being isolated.

Isolated, which is a euphemism really for, for being under siege, which is what the Gaza economy is.

And because it has the relatively younger population, then, then it might be spared the worst of the of the pandemic.

That's clearly not been the case.

The health authorities in Gaza announced a couple of days that they faced a health emergency.

The number of cases has increased significantly.

I think there's been in excess of 14,000 and daily cases are in the 700 range and rising.

And you know, that put hospital beds in Gaza under significant stress.

They're reaching capacity because of the blockade.

Access to drugs and protective clothing and ventilators is seriously restricted and and the crisis is now exposing the underlying conditions that Matt Mood will talk about that have been worsening in Gaza over the last decade and which the report speaks directly.

Two, that that really do expose a very, very serious crisis for the Palestinian people, the 2,000,000 plus Palestinian people that are living in Gaza right now.

So so that's that's an important change that has happened since September.

Of course, the other change that will have a bearing on all this is the change of the administration in Washington.

We've heard, we've heard with the announcements yesterday of the foreign policy team of President Biden, not president-elect Biden, a very different tone from from what has what what has happened, not what has been true over the last four years.

That obviously raises hopes that there may be changes in the, in the relationship between Israel and Palestine.

Now we we will have to see, but I guess you know, the the situation, the broad situation remains the same in terms of the possibilities for the, for the Palestinian people in general and the people of Gaza in particular.

We can go back to business as usual before 2016, but that was the situation in which the rights of the Palestinian people were being ignored, where international law is codified by UN resolutions was being ignored and political tensions were already on the rise.

So that's that is a business as usual scenario that is possible.

There are there are other scenarios that are possible.

People are again talking about a one state solution.

The respected Jewish historian Avi Schlaim, for example, has has talked again about the need for a one state solution.

That's the democratic option for for solving this problem.

I don't think it's very likely under the political circumstances, but it but it's once again being talked about.

And of course there's the UN position which remains the two state solution which which you know, we still think is a credible solution.

Israeli politicians have in the past talked about it.

Rabin was close to recognising that before he was assassinated.

Hamas has acknowledged the two state solution as as as the way forward.

But it will require a lot more dedication from the international community than has been the case for the last decade or more.

But but that is the broad political context in which the current challenges facing Gaza, which are of an extreme nature, That's the that's the broad political landscape, I think in which in which the immediate challenges need to be assessed.

So I'm going to pass over to Mahmoud, who will present the broad findings of the report that that is being launched by us today.

[Other language spoken]

Thank you, Mahmoud, you have the floor.

Thanks, Catherine.

[Other language spoken]

I'm glad that you make this intro because you have covered an area that not really covered by the report, which is the impact of the COVID on the Palestinian economy in the Gaza Strip, which is under siege since June 2007.

That's more than 13 years now.

I will start by just giving everybody a bit of background.

Why this this report?

This report is the 3rd or the 4th of its kind and its response to General Assembly resolution which now became became an annual thing.

And actually there is a draught by for a new resolution for for for which is going to be voted on in in in the next few days.

The new request anecdot to assess, estimate, report, document and report the economic cost of occupation.

So by nature, this kind of reports, they do have some historical perspective and they do have some quantitative number associated with them.

And the objective is to assess the impact of the occupation authority on the Palestinian economy either for future records or or or or even for the point of negotiation.

So as you can see, this report covers specific and it does not cover all the whole cost of occupation.

The whole cost of occupation is a tremendous thing.

But specifically this report covered Gaza and specifically covered specific period from 2007 or 2008 to 2017 and specifically covers the impact of the siege or of the economic siege that Gaza is under since June 2007 by the Israeli authorities.

And also covered the impact of three major military operations which took place in 2 thousand 2008 and 2009 and 2000 and and and 12 and 2017.

So this is the focus of of the report.

Specifically, this year report elaborate on the critical situation in Gaza caused by the 13 year siege and and as well as the three major operation.

And we we we put a bit more focus on the impact on poverty and the impact of of this these points.

I mean the siege and the the, the and the on on poverty.

So that's the way of intro to to why this report and what, what, what does this report cover?

As I said before, I mean, there are about 2,000,000 Palestinian human beings living in the Gaza Strip, which is about 365 square kilometres for about now, for about 13 years, 13 years.

During that 13 years, the entry of good was reduced to a bare minimum.

The the crossing points are are I think there are there is only one of them or two of them operating not on, not full time and and and and and and.

Of course there is a dual system in which there are big number of of products and and commodities that are not allowed to get in.

So it practically is is is is is is a complete air, land and sea blockade since June 2007.

Not only that, but during that.

There were three major military operations, one as I said in 2008 in starting December 27, 2008 till 18 January and then the other one seven July to 26 August in 214 and, and, and, and I I don't want to go through this but, but there was lot major casualties in terms of human loss in, in 2000 and in in 2008 there was about four 1440 people killed, 505,380 people got wounded, about 1000 people got displaced.

About 4000 housing units had been destroyed, 11,500 housing units were partially damaged and so on in in the second military operation that was in November 2000 and 12133 people were killed.

About 500, five, 159 enterprises were affected, the major one.

The major one was in between 7 July to 26th August 2014, 2022 and 220 people got killed.

About 150,000 housing housing units, 60% of Gaza housing stock were damaged.

The major destruction to public infrastructure including energy, water, sanitation, health, education facilities and government building.

That takes me to what Richard has just said about, about the, the impact of COVID and the, and the health system in the Gaza Strip and how you could imagine if, if it could, if it could cope at all with, with, with major health problem.

Why I made this kind of comment to just to give you an, an, an idea about the, the economic impact of, of this kind of siege and this kind of, of, of, of, of military operations.

OK, now what's the difference between now and between 2007 before the the the blockade and 2017 in in about 11 years?

In about 11 years, Gaza poverty rate jumped from 4040% to 56%.

The poverty gap which tell tell us how deep and how sharp the the poverty, which shows the percentage of poor below the poverty line.

It has increased from 14% in 2007 to 20% in 2017.

There is another statistics here, which is the annual course of eliminating poverty.

How much do we need to to, to inject in the economy to bring everybody under the poverty line to the poverty line?

This number has increased 4 times between 2007 and 2003.

And I'm talking about about constant prices here.

That's that exclude the impact of inflation.

This cost to to to bring everybody above the poverty line in 2007 was 200 and and $9 million.

This number increased to 800, thirty $38 million in 2017.

The difference between these these two numbers also tell us the cost of occupation in terms of poverty, how the occupation increased poverty, how the impact, how the the siege, the impact of siege and the the three military operation impacted poverty and increase the cost of eliminated poverty.

Now during this 11 years between 2000 and 2017, these are 11 years the Gaza economy, local economy grew by 5 percent, 5% / 11 years.

That's less than 1/2 a percentage point every year.

The Gaza share in the Parasini economy shrunk from 37% to 18%.

Now the Gaza economy share in the Parasini economy is reduced to 18%.

GDP per capita declined by 27% in this in this 11 years.

Now Gaza has the highest, one of the highest unemployment rate in the world, about 52%.

Now the second point I want to convey to you is what if the blockade and the military operation did not occur?

And we use this number to give give us an estimation to the cost to the Palestinian economy in Gaza of this of the blockade and the military operation.

If we look at the cumulative cost of of of only these two factors, the the blockade since 2007 till 2018 and the three military operation that the cumulative call the the anecdote estimate of this cumulative cost is about 60 close to 17 billion U.S.

dollar in constant prices, which mean taking the impact without the impact of inflation.

This is equivalent to six times what Gaza people, the Gaza's economy or what could Gaza produce, what Gaza produced in 2018 or what Gaza has consumed into six times.

And actually, it's more than the size of the Palestinian economy in 2018.

Actually, without the, without the seed and without the, the, the military operation, Gaza economy could have been 15% higher than what one it is now.

GDP, GDP per capita could have been about $1540 per per person.

That's about 106% above its actual level In 2015.

Gaza poverty rate could have been 15% instead of the 56% poverty rate in 2013, the record that's about 1/4 of the the poverty rate.

The the poverty gap, which is measured the depth and how sharp is the poverty could have been without the siege and without the military operation could have been 4.2%.

Instead, it's the actual level for 2018, which is 20%.

That's one fifth the poverty gap could have been without the military operation and and the siege.

[Other language spoken]

What are we recommended?

Actually, all this recommendation are just come naturally.

Of course, the first recommendation that this unfair siege, this unfair blockade in which 2 million human being are being blocked, living in an area about 365 square kilometres, which is this very tiny area, should be lifted, should be lifted immediately, of course.

And of course, the second recommendation is allow the Palestinian people to freely move, do business, trade for medical reasons, educational reason, affirming reasons to move in and out of Gaza and to get connected with the rest of occupied Palestinian territory, West Bank and the rest of the world.

Of course, reconstruction of all the infrastructure, the public and private, the sewage system, water, water system, electricity, electricity generation stations should be restored.

Gaza should have its own airport and seaport and, and another recommendation is allow the Palestinian government to have access and to make use of the two or three natural gas field of the off the shore of Gaza, because this will give the Palestinian government lots of physical space in which they could use to reconstruct Gaza.

The last recommendation is to the international community is to, to, to, to carry their own responsibilities towards the Palestinian people and, and, and put pressure on the occupying power to, to, to, to implement this.

The the previous recommendation and of course there is a recommendation for to the occupying power is to bear their responsibility as an occupying power toward the the Palestinian people or the occupied people.

I'll stop here and the I'll, I'll give you give you the floor back.

Catherine.

Thank you very much, Mahmoud, for this very detailed presentation.

We are now going to open the floor.

[Other language spoken]

Moussa, ASI and Maidena over to you.

[Other language spoken]

Yeah, perfectly.

[Other language spoken]

Of course.

[Other language spoken]

OK, I will, I will answer this Arabic and then translate in English because, OK, he's asking what does it mean the, the, the, the loss of $17 billion?

To the Palestinian people, Rodney Belarabi he Amerite of car.

The Shabel Philistini Brazzer he Amerite of car watermelon Arkham and Mustafa reserved which actually did can Hali and Mustafa can my my my answer to to question my answer to question.

He asked what what the impact of the loss of the cumulative love of $17 billion from the Gaza's economy.

I don't think the impact is the impoverishment of Gaza and the people Gaza.

I mean who had this money been injected in the Gaza economy, the poverty rate could have been 14% instead of the recorded 56 percent.

56% of the Gaza people are living with below the poverty line.

Also, it would have been impact on how sharp, how deep the poverty on the Gaza people.

The, the, the, the, the, the, the poverty gap, which measures how sharp or how deep the poverty could have been without the, the blockade and without the operation could have been 4% instead of what the, the, the, the estimated, the actual estimated in 2017 of 20%.

So basically the impact is impoverishment of the people of Gaza who are already under blockade.

[Other language spoken]

OK, I will translate this also English for other colleagues as well.

He's asking me the, the 56% of, of Gaza people who are living below the poverty line and the 52% of Gaza people who are employed, how are they living?

It's, I'm sorry to laugh.

I mean, it, it, it, it's, I mean, I, I mean, it's, it's a condition that's very difficult to live under.

The average household in Gaza, they would be lucky if they receive 4-4 hours of, of electricity a day.

As as Richard has said, I mean, the, the, the health system in Gaza is under extreme stress.

I don't know for how long this tuition could, could continue, but but I mean, you just can't imagine that that 56% of the population is under a poverty line.

And, and the, the, the poverty gap, which mean how deep, which tells you how far an average poor in Gaza live below the poverty line is as increased from from to 20%, which is supposed to be 4%.

So I mean, you can tell, I mean how, how the, how bad the situation.

I'm sorry, I answered the English, so I'm going to answer in Arabic.

[Other language spoken]

Thank you very much for taking my question.

I will allow myself to ask the question in Arabic.

[Other language spoken]

So, but I know actually we had an Arabic press conference, but go ahead.

OK, The question do you expect that the conditions in in not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank will get worse?

OK, my answer is Arabic and and and then in English of course.

[Other language spoken]

I'm like Southern philosophy the the Eman Finhedor El muscula in the pork Mazela.

I'm going to say that in, in English, if you follow the, the graphs that Catherine will share with you in the PowerPoint presentation or even in the report, you could tell that the, the solid line which showed the actual GDP recorded GDP for Gaza is downturn is going down.

And, and we'll continue to do that, I guess with, with, with the continuation of the blockade and I hope no more military operations the, the, the, the down downturn trend of GDP will continue.

As for the West Bank, the West Bank actually it's maybe they are not under siege as the, there is a, there is a closure policy still continuing in the West Bank, but it's not as bad as the at the blockade in Gaza.

But the, the major things that we just heard that the, the fiscal balance or budget deficit, it's going to go to to be around eight, $800 million.

And this is a record the, the Palestinian government in the West Bank is is not able to cope with the requirements to meet the the COVID And it's not able to, to, to cope with the with also with the closure policy, which also have a very negative impact on the economy, on the Palestinian economy in the West Bank.

Back to you, Catherine.

[Other language spoken]

Robin Miller, AFP, you have the floor.

Robin, Thank you.

[Other language spoken]

In the recommendations are there are there any recommendations for things that the government of Gaza could do to try to improve or to or to change the situation and some of these some of these numbers.

[Other language spoken]

Well, I mean the, the, the, I don't, I don't know.

I, I, I mean, I don't want to get into the internal politics of, of the play, but the government of, of, of, of the, of, of the Hamas government in, in, in, in, in Gaza.

I don't know how much money do they have to do anything.

I mean the, the, the, the, the, I don't think so.

I, I, I don't, I mean the, the government and the population in Gaza, the back is against the war.

I mean, there is no, they have no fund there, there is no public revenue and they are under siege since 2000 and June.

So I mean, the answer is clear.

I mean, thank you, Peter Kenny, you have the floor, Peter.

[Other language spoken]

Looking at this report, it looks like old wine in new bottles.

It seems to be similar to reports that we've had over past years.

The Gaza economy is on the verge of collapse.

In terms of the recommendations that you are putting forward, are you optimistic that they can be implemented more so than say in previous years?

I mean you, you will have a change of administration in the US, but you have no change of administration in Israel or with Hamas.

So could you say something about how the chances are of these recommendations being implemented?

Peter, which which agency are you with?

[Other language spoken]

Turkish News Agency, yeah, OK, I would be very brief and maybe Richard would like to add, because Richard made, made a comment on the change of the, of, of the administration of the American administration.

And potentially maybe things will loosen up a bit.

Also the, the, the Israeli government, I mean, the Israeli government is, is, I mean, has been there for a while.

And I don't know if their position would change with the change of the, of, of, of, of the US administration, though we don't want to get into the, the, the, the, the political aspect at least, but they do have an impact on the economy.

Now regarding the recommendation and regarding the assessment, I mean, things are getting from bad to worse.

Our job in the UN is to keep record.

Our job in the UN is to assess.

Our job is to urge member states to, to end the the, the thing that's against international law and, and maybe there is not, not major change in our recommendation, but there are specific commendation that has to be set.

That's as far as we can go.

Can we force any member states?

I don't think this in the position of any of, of any of the Internet service.

Our position is our, our duties and our mandate is to assess, make the best assessment, which could be dependable academically, could be dependable from the point of view and keep put things on record and make recommendation.

And it's up to member state to adapt or not to adapt.

That's, that's, that's not in our, our area of, of, of work.

[Other language spoken]

Richard, do you want to add, can we unmute Richard, please?

I mean, I mean, obviously the withdrawal of the US from from Anrag and the $200 million that I guess back in 2018 was a huge hit to the Palestinian economy in general.

And that it will be interesting to see as, as the new administration has committed to returning to The Who and returning to the Paris Agreement, whether it will also go back to its position vis A vis Unruh.

So that that's an important thing to watch.

I think, you know, more generally and also in response to the previous question, you know, we've pointed out in our work on COVID particularly, but more generally, you know, the, the problem for many developing countries is the extent of informality in their economy, which can take anything up to 7580% of economic activity.

The thing about Gaza, the entire economy is informal.

I mean, because there is essentially no, given the nature of the blockade, given the periodic military interventions by Israel, there is simply no that that's, that's the way informality is a way of life.

It's not just a way in which the economy works.

And that makes it incredibly difficult for any government to be able to intervene and, and, and shift the needle in some way.

And, and until, until we can see the emergence of more formal economic activity, and as Mahmoud said, that requires access to the outside world, then then it's, it is very, it's extremely difficult, extremely difficult to see anything but the development being the, the fate of the of the Gazan that society.

And that's the real shocking kind of conclusion.

I think in the, in the, in the 21st century that 2 million people can be left in that kind of condition.

Thank you, Moussa, I see you have another question.

Moussa, over to you.

We said there in question see a concern it as you need that Richard you have you have something to add about the change, the change in United States administration.

There is something to do with this Biden about the situation in Gaza and on Palestinian territory in general.

I think it has been mentioned.

Richard, do you have anything to add on this?

OK, I think you I mean, I think we're all aware of the of the complexities of of the of the of the Middle Eastern situation in regardless of the administration in the USI think there's reason to be I mean, you know, there is reason to be optimistic.

[Other language spoken]

I think the, the, the, the, the tone that we heard yesterday, you know, does suggest a desire to re engage.

And, and certainly in the case of, of the last four years, there's been a, a clear shift in US foreign policy vis A vis the Middle East in general and, and the Palestinian question in particular.

So, so we, I think we have to be optimistic, but I, I, I at the same time to be realistic too.

I think we're all aware of the difficult pressures that that any administration in Washington faces on this issue.

So, so you know, you know, cautiously optimistic I think would be would be the the phrase that comes to mind.

Thank you very much.

I don't see any additional question from the media.

I just want to remind you we have an embargo until tonight, 6:00 PM Geneva time.

I sent you the beginning of this press conference.

I sent you the PowerPoint with more details in terms of data and key elements in English and Arabic.

So you have this in your e-mail.

If you need anything, please contact me.

And if there is no question, I think we're going to stop here.

Thank you very much.

Have a nice day and let's keep in touch for other other publications.

Thank you very much.

[Other language spoken]