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Press Conferences | WMO

WMO - Press Conference 06 November 2026

UN GENEVA PRESS BRIEFING

6 November 2026

Alessandra Vellucci, Director of the United Nations Information Service (UNIS) in Geneva, chaired the hybrid briefing, which was attended by spokespersons and representatives from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, International Organization for Migration, United Nations Children's Fund, Independent Institution on Missing Persons in the Syrian Arab Republic, and the World Health Organization.


Sudan: Millions at risk of losing emergency shelter as funding runs out

Abubakarr Jalloh, Deputy Representative in Sudan, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), speaking from Khartoum, said that on 25 April 2023, he woke up in the city to the sounds of war. Many families fled within minutes, carrying only would they could. They left their homes, blankets, cooking pots, everything that made a house a home. For millions across Sudan, this uncertainty remained real.

Mr. Jalloh said today, he was back in Khartoum, working with partners, civil society, and communities, helping everyone who had lost their lives or been uprooted. Three and a half years on, the conflict continued and suffering was deepening as front lines changed. More families were being forced to flee, some for the first time, while others were fleeing for the second or third time. They arrived in places with little or nothing to support them. The host communities were commendably doing all that they could, struggling to meet the growing needs, while they themselves had very little to provide.

Almost 15 million people in Sudan had been uprooted by the war or were trying to rebuild their lives in places that had been destroyed. This figure included Sudanese displaced within the country, returnees determined to restart their lives, and refugees who had fled Sudan seeking safety years ago but were now fleeing for their lives again.

This year, the war had sadly spread to a new frontline in the Blue Nile states. Nearly 120,00 people had been displaced there since January. Many fled in the middle of the night. Some arrived in places of relative safety carrying nothing at all. Even after fleeing, many did not feel safe.

Three in four displaced persons in Sudan were women and children, and they did not have privacy. There were no private latrines for women and girls. For a woman who had lost everything, a tent was more than just shelter. It meant the difference between sleeping in the open, surrounded by strangers and having a space of their own. A solar lamp meant women could reach a latrine at night without walking in darkness. A kitchen meant mothers could cook for children without exposing themselves to unnecessary risk.

Winter was now approaching. Sudan was known as a country of extreme heat, but winter nights in Darfur could be bitterly cold and temperatures in northern Sudan could fall into single digits. For newborn babies and older persons, a blanket could be a life-saving item. Many families were approaching winter with shelters that were already damaged or barely standing. In Tawila, which now sheltered 900 people, heavy rains this summer destroyed hundreds of tents. Across displaced sites, two in five displaced families were living under plastic sheets.

At the same time, El Niño had brought far less rain to Sudan this year, affecting harvesting across Darfur, Kordofan and many other areas impacted by the ongoing fighting. This time of the year, just after the harvest, food was supposed to be affordable. Yet prices remained painfully high. In September alone, the price of staple grain rose by up to 40 per cent, on top of extremely high inflation. For a family that had lost everything, every Sudanese pounds spent on food was money they could not spend on a blanket or supplies or safe shelter.

Even getting life-saving assistance to those who needed it had become increasingly dangerous. In this year alone, drones struck UNHCR trucks twice. Drivers survived, but every emergency shelter for more than 1,300 families went up in flames in April and in July in White Nile, and 50 tonnes of blankets, sleeping mats, and solar lamps were destroyed. When those supplies were destroyed, women lost a measure of protection, children lost the warmth of blankets, and families who had already fled violence often multiple times lost the chance of having a roof over their heads.

Despite these challenges, UNHCR and partners continued to work every day to reach the millions that were in need. The collective shelter response required 179 million dollars this year. So far, only 35 per cent had been funded.

Mr. Jalloh concluded with the story of Amira, who left Kurmuk in the Blue Nile on foot in the dark with her three children. It took her days walking and travelling in crowded trucks to reach Wad Madani. When she arrived, the displacement sites were already full of families who had made the same desperate journey as she had. She said she had been sleeping under the sky. UNHCR teams brought her a tent, and her children could finally sleep under a roof. A roof was something most people barely noticed, but for a mother who had fled violence with her children, it meant safety, dignity, and the ability to sleep without fear.

For millions of families in Sudan this winter, this modest hope remained out of reach. The difference between sleeping under a roof and sleeping under the open sky in winter in Sudan was not a question of technology. It was a question of access, resources, and whether the international community chose to act before this winter passed for the families who had already lost so much.

Mohamed Refaat, Chief of Mission, International Organization for Migration (IOM) Sudan, also speaking from Khartoum, said that, a year ago, briefings on Sudan focused not only on funding but also on access constraints. Today, thanks to advocacy by colleagues in the humanitarian country team and others, humanitarians had more access and could reach more people. This meant that they were able to listen to the stories of their suffering and be more accountable.

IOM believed that the massive displacement crisis in Sudan might get worse. The figure of 8.6 million persons displaced in Sudan had been decreasing gradually because of returns. However, homes were not necessarily available when people returned.

Every humanitarian on the ground was feeling the pressure. Mr. Refaat said he had a colleague working in Darfur who helped a 70-year-old woman to set up a tent. The woman told him that she had not eaten for one day. She had lost one of her sons in El Fasher, and another had left to find work and never returned.

The failure to prevent a disaster in Sudan could be repeated elsewhere. If aid could not be provided in Sudan at scale, neighbouring countries would be impacted.

Some 5.2 million persons had returned to northern Sudan, many finding their houses destroyed and their homes looted. Many found no healthcare, no electricity, and no water, and found that they might have to leave again, without any hope of returning.  Others were still in the move, fleeing violence for a second or third time.  Around 3.5 million people had been displaced in Sudan for over 10 years.

There were around 13.4 million people in Sudan who urgently needed emergency shelters, but IOM could serve only one out of 10, reaching only 900,000 people with what it had. Just this year, IOM was able to distribute more than 40,000 tents, but its warehouses were completely empty now. It was moving stock, succeeding to get supplies into hard-reach areas, and supporting families who had been displaced or were returning home. Just yesterday, 16 trucks arrived in Darfur, but they were carrying the last of the stock. IOM was facing serious problems, as its supplies were running out.

Ongoing conflicts and logistic challenges were already making it difficult to reach people. Severe food shortages and severe malnutrition could push more people to move, and IOM did not have enough stocks to support them at their destinations. Families desperately needed shelter, but there was simply nothing left to give them.

IOM was working to restore people’s hope and dignity in Sudan. It urgently needed flexible funding to keep emergency supplies flowing and to reach families before it was too late. It needed international support to continue, because people were still fleeing and families were still returning to destroyed homes, and their needs were not going away. After nearly four years of conflict, Sudanese families had already lost so much. The international community could not undo what they had endured, but it could make sure that they had a safe place to sleep tonight.

Read the joint IOM and UNHCR press release here.


Nearly 90 million displaced people face severe climate risks, says UNHCR

Jana Birner, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Climate Action Expert, said UNHCR had launched a new report which showed that climate impacts were disproportionately affecting displaced communities across the globe. UNHCR developed this report as part of its “No Escape” series, together with partners, as well as refugees and community leaders globally, to put their voices, their challenges and their strategies at the centre.

What the report showed was that 90 million forcibly displaced globally were now living in countries that were highly or extremely exposed to climate-related hazards, including floods, droughts, and extreme heat. This included countries like Ethiopia, Chad, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sudan. This was particularly concerning given the current displacement situation. Displacement meant often losing the resources that people needed to adapt to the impacts of climate change, like income, shelter and social safety nets.

What the report also showed was new data on extreme heat, which was of particular concern for refugee settlements in sub-Saharan Africa. It predicted a substantial increase in days with extreme heat until 2050: one in three refugee settlements across sub-Saharan Africa would see up to 100 days of extreme heat by 2050. In countries like Ethiopia, it could be up to more than 200 days, or more than half of every day in a year with extreme heat.  Extreme heat had devastating impacts on the human body and particularly pregnant women, children, and elderly people were affected.

Climate impacts could be a contributing driver for displacement. Over the past 10 years, there were 255 million new internal displacements, including pre-emptive evacuations, related to weather disasters, an equivalent of around 70,000 displacements per day. This was an increase of around five per cent compared to the average of the previous 10 decades until 2024.

Ms. Birner said she saw this firsthand in Kakuma, where she spoke to refugee representatives who said they had been displaced again by devastating floods affecting their camps. In Kakuma, vocational training centres, schools and health facilities were at risk of being closed or already being closed because of the floods and erosions, which undermined the long-term resilience of refugees even more.

Climate impacts could undermine the sustainability of durable solutions. UNHCR estimated that by mid-2026, two in three refugee returnees had returned to climate vulnerable countries. That meant that the sustainability of their return could be undermined, and there was a risk of onward displacement. More investment was thus needed in climate resilient recovery and in climate resilient reconstruction, including in water systems, agricultural systems, and livelihoods.

Going into COP31, refugees globally were not just vulnerable. They were leading solutions on the front lines worldwide, ranging from climate smart agriculture to climate resilient shelters and reforestation efforts. Ms. Birner said she saw in Kakuma how refugees were planting trees to green their camp again. Refugees were already leading these solutions, but they were not getting enough support. There was not enough client financing reaching places of displacement, and better inclusion was needed to scale solutions.

Read the UNHCR press release here.


Children in Ukraine experiencing major water supply disruptions as attacks on energy infrastructure continue

Ricardo Pires for the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) said yesterday, UNICEF released a new report, Water Under Fire, documenting a deeply alarming global trend. Between 2021 and 2025, reported attacks damaging or destroying water and sanitation systems in conflict tripled. Across 23 countries and territories, attacks on water infrastructure, energy supplies and the people who kept these systems running were depriving children of something fundamental to their survival: safe water.

What this report described globally was unfolding right now in Ukraine. Kyiv, a city of around three million people, including half a million children, had experienced major disruptions to its water supply this week following attacks on energy infrastructure. On Tuesday, large parts of the city were left without running water. Yesterday, power outages disrupted water supplies in every district of the capital, affecting homes, hospitals, schools and kindergartens.

When electricity failed, it was not just the lights that went out. Water stopped flowing. Heating systems failed. Hospitals struggled to provide care. Schools could not function normally.

With winter approaching, the consequences for children and families could be devastating. Parents in Kyiv were preparing for another freezing winter of war, not knowing whether their children would have safe water to drink, whether their children’s school would remain open, or whether their home would stay warm.

This was why UNICEF was working urgently to keep essential services running. In Kyiv, it had already provided 47 generators to the city's water utility and upgraded pumps at four major pumping stations. It was supporting alternative water sources, including boreholes and public water kiosks that could operate during power outages. At the National Cancer Institute, UNICEF was helping establish a borehole reaching 300 metres underground, providing the hospital with an independent source of safe drinking water.

Across Ukraine, UNICEF had helped more than five million people access safe water and sanitation services this year, while supporting heating for more than three million people. But humanitarian assistance could not be a substitute for protecting civilian infrastructure. As the Water Under Fire report made clear, the consequences of attacks on water and energy systems extended far beyond the immediate damage. They threatened children's health, education, safety and survival.

Children in Ukraine had already endured years of bombardment, displacement and disrupted childhoods. They should not have to face another winter without the most basic services they need to survive. Attacks on civilian infrastructure needed to stop. Water and energy systems needed to be protected. And every child needed to have access to safe water, warmth and essential services, even in war.


Together for Science and Health initiative

Dr Sylvie Briand, World Health Organization (WHO) Chief Scientist, said that when people trusted science, they were more likely to use scientific knowledge to make decisions about their health. And when societies valued science, they were more willing to invest in research, discovery and innovation.

The opposite was also true. Less trust could mean less investment. Less investment meant less scientific progress. And less trust in science could also mean less evidence in the policies that affected all our lives.

The Wellcome Global Monitor 2026, based on more than 140,000 people in over 140 countries and areas, found that 72 per cent of people globally trusted scientists, but also that trust had been on the decline since 2018. It also found significant gaps in people's knowledge of science and in perceptions of whether science benefits them.

Today, the relationship between science and society was facing new pressures. First, science was moving extraordinarily fast. Artificial intelligence, genomics, gene therapies, precision medicine and other technologies were changing what was possible in health. But society did not always have the time or opportunity to understand and adapt to these changes.

Second, artificial intelligence was changing how knowledge was generated, analysed and communicated. This created extraordinary opportunities, but it also raised new questions about transparency, accountability and trustworthy information.

Third, the information environment had been transformed. People had access to more health information than at any point in history, but misinformation and disinformation were circulating at unprecedented speed. Scientific findings competed for attention alongside opinions, rumours, commercial interests and deliberately false information. The result was often not simply disbelief, but confusion. That was why WHO believed it needed to act now.

On 10 November, coinciding with World Science Day for Peace and Development, WHO was launching “Together for Science and Health”, a global movement bringing together scientists, policymakers, health professionals, communicators, civil society, young people and communities. The movement would work through three interconnected relationships: science and society, science and policy, and science and communication.

Trust in science needed to be earned. It required scientific integrity, transparency, and listening. It required scientists engaging with communities rather than only communicating to them, and ensuring that the benefits of scientific progress reached everyone, not only those who could afford them.

Science and society needed to come closer together, so that people's needs and lived experiences helped shape scientific priorities. Science and policy also needed to be better connected, so that decisions affecting people's health continued to be informed by the best available evidence. Further, science and communication needed to work differently, so that people could access accurate, understandable and trustworthy information and make informed decisions about their health. These were the three pillars at the heart of the movement.

Preserving trust in science was about much more than defending scientists or scientific institutions. It was about preserving societies’ ability to distinguish evidence from falsehood, knowledge from assertion, and facts from manipulation. It was about protecting trust in public institutions, in credible media, and in humanity’s collective ability to solve problems together.

Trust was the glue that held societies together. At a time when that glue was under strain, scientists, policymakers, journalists, communities and citizens needed to work together. That was why the movement was called “Together for Science and Health”. WHO invited all parties to come together at the global launch of the movement on 10 November, because preserving trust in science was not only about protecting science. It was about protecting our capacity to build healthier, fairer and more resilient societies together and to shape the science we would like to have in the future.

In response to questions, Dr Briand said there would be 12 events held on 10 November, starting in Asia and then moving to Africa, Europe, and North and South America. Each event would focus on topics that were relevant to the region it was held in. The event in Paris would feature the WHO Director-General and the French President. Events would connect a range of different entities, allowing different communities to connect with scientific achievements more effectively.

The issue of distrust in vaccination was linked to misinformation. Scientists needed to continue to work to make vaccines safer and prevent side effects, but governments also needed to devote more effort to informing the public about the safety and importance of vaccination.

Distrust in science was higher in communities with less access to scientific discoveries than others. Fast action was needed to tackle misinformation and disinformation targeting these communities. Solutions needed to be found that were adapted to the different contexts of different regions. There was a need to train medical professionals in communicating with patients so that they could be better informed about scientific innovations.

“Democratisation of science”, for WHO, meant first asking society about their health needs and ensuring that research was driven by those needs. The organization would continue to ensure close dialogue with policy makers at country level to make sure that the results they were providing were well understood and implemented.

Ebola was an example of a case in which some communities were unwilling to follow medical instructions due to a lack of belief in the science, and this was fuelled by misinformation on social media. The algorithms on social media were developed for commercial purposes rather than to promote public health, and they could prioritise misinformation. There was a study that showed that one in five young people in the United Kingdom already regretted a health decision that had taken based on something they had read on social media. There needed to be further engagement with social media platforms to address this issue.


Announcements

Watban M. Lahmood for the Independent Institution on Missing Persons in the Syrian Arab Republic (IIMP) said that the IIMP would hold an annual forum for the Institution in early December. He would share details about the event soon.

Alessandra Vellucci, Director of the United Nations Information Service (UNIS) in Geneva, said this afternoon, Friday, 6 November at 2:30 p.m., the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) would hold a press conference on the “State of the Global Climate 2026” report, which was embargoed until 9 November at 8:30 a.m. Speaking would be Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, and John Kennedy, WMO Head of Climate Information.

This morning, the Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (CESCR) was reviewing the report of Austria. At 3 p.m. this afternoon, in Room XIV of the Palais des Nations, CESCR and the Human Rights Committee would hold a joint event to mark the 60th anniversary of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights.

Next week, the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) would be holding its first-ever Global Forum on Intellectual Property (IP) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). The inaugural Global Forum would cover AI-related legal and policy issues across the full spectrum of IP rights, including patents, copyright, trademarks, designs, trade secrets and others. More broadly, it would explore AI’s impact on IP, innovation and creativity. Journalists could contact Ed Harris (edward.harris@wipo.int) for more information.

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Teleprompter
Good afternoon everyone and thank you for joining us at this press briefing where we share findings from the World Meteorological Organisations State of Climate update for 2026.
The report will be released on Monday at COP 31 in Antalya.
The embargo will lift at 8:30 AM Geneva time on the 9th of November, that's 730 GMT.
The State of Climate is WM OS authoritative science based report card on the state of climate.
This year's report update includes data where available until September 2026.
So I know this will come up it, but it does not reflect some of the latest impacts of El Nino that we've been seeing.
The full report for 2026 will be released in March 2027.
To share findings and where we are, a number of climate indicators.
We have with us 2 speakers from WMO, Celeste Salo, the Secretary General, and John Kennedy, the Head of Climate Information.
After our two speakers, we will take your questions.
So Celeste, over to you, please.
Thank you very much, Nandita.
Dear members of the media, thank you very much for joining us today.
The World Geological Organisation is releasing its State of the Climate Update 2026 at COP 31 in Antalya, Turkey, and that it is an important scientific foundation for the negotiations.
We must use science to inform policies.
What we are seeing gives new meaning to the phrase of the charts.
The past 12 years have been the warmest on record, with the past four years being the top 4.
From January to September, the global average temperature was about 1.47°C above the pre industrial average.
When we take into account El Nino, a strong El Nino, it is likely to rise further for 2026 as a whole.
In turn, El Nino has the greatest impact on global temperatures the year after its development.
This is why 2024 was the warmest year on record and why we should therefore prepare for another record-breaking year in 2027.
The World Meteorological Organisation declares an El Nino when the sea surface temperature is half a degree above average.
In the tropical Pacific, the epicentre of El Nino, we forecast that it may be 3.8°C I above average during November 2026 to January 2027.
As I've said before, it is expected to be the strongest since 1950.
A linear by itself doesn't add new heat to the planet.
It creates A concentrated warm pool of ocean water within an ocean that it is the warmest ever measured for the 10th consecutive year.
So let me give you some facts and figures.
Sea surface temperatures hit monthly records during 2026.
Also, sea level this year reached its highest level on record, posing increasing hazards to the 900 million people who live on low lying coasts.
Ice continues to melt, depleting our future water reserves.
The Earth energy imbalance has reached its highest level since monitoring began.
Greenhouse gases are trapping unprecedented amounts of heat.
This upsets the balance between incoming energy from the sun and outgoing energy.
Colleagues, friends, we are supercharging our weather.
Heat waves, tropical cyclones, rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for.
The human and economic cost is unacceptably high.
In 2026, millions of people were exposed to unbearable heat, leading to 10s of thousands of excess deaths in Europe alone.
The catastrophe in Nepal showed the dangers of high mountain disaster for downstream communities, as COP 31 convinced there are devastating floods in parts of South America and Africa and relentless roads in countries in Asia and the Pacific and Central America.
Believe it or not, this is currently happening.
While the state of the climate update paints a stark picture of the challenges ahead, it also shows that our collective efforts are yielding results.
The number of countries reporting multi hazard early warning systems in place has increased from 55 in 2015 to 136 in 2025.
A reminder that progress is possible when we act together.
At COPE we will be assessing the latest progress towards early warnings for all as a foundation for the more sustainable and resilient future.
But early warnings are only as good as the observations and data that underpin them.
The progress we are seeing today rests on decades of investment in the global observing system.
Our message to COP 31 is that sustained observations from every part of the world are more important than ever.
The global observing infrastructure form the basis of our advanced predictions of the linear To give us time to prepare and protect.
We need to close the data gaps and we need more investment in our forecast, in our forecasting backbone.
We cannot afford to fly blind.
And with that, I will hand over to John Kennedy, Head of Climate Information at WMO.
The problem is yours.
Thank you, Celeste.
So do we have the slides perhaps?
[Other language spoken]
So these increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are trapping heat in the climate system and we're seeing the effects of that heat in the key indicators that are presented in the state of the climate update.
We're seeing it in the warming atmosphere and ocean, in melting ice and in the rising seas.
And this year, with a record El Nino still growing in strength in the tropical Pacific, we're also seeing what happens when that energy moves around within the climate system, in this case from the oceans to the atmosphere.
And both these factors, the long term accumulation of heat and the inter annual variability, have both shaped the climate of 2026.
Now the energy that's trapped in the Earth's system, like greenhouse gases, over 90%, has gone into the oceans.
Ocean heat contents, which is a measure of the heat energy in the top 2000 metres of the ocean, has risen year on year for the past nine years, breaking a record each time.
And this year in 2026, that's on track to make 10 years in a row of record ocean heat.
In the past decades, the ocean has also absorbed around 29% of all the carbon dioxide emissions emitted through human activities, changing ocean chemistry and making surface waters more acidic.
[Other language spoken]
Since early in the year, we've been tracking the developments of El Nino.
The latest outlook suggests it could be the strongest on record, as shown by the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region in the central Equatorial Pacific.
El Nino has already affected weather patterns in many parts of the world, harming health and food security, and those impacts are forecast to continue into 2027.
[Other language spoken]
While 90% of the trapped energy is going into the oceans, only around 1% has gone into the atmosphere, warming the atmosphere and raising the temperatures at the surface which we experience on a day-to-day basis.
Global temperature for 2026 to September has already reached 1.47° above the 1850 to 1900 average, with a margin of error of only around 0.13°.
That's averaged across nine data sets from global centres around the world.
This puts 2026 on track to be one of the four warmest years on record.
And that would mean that the past 12 years or the 12 warmest years on record in this 177 year global temperature series.
However, the year's not over yet.
And with El Nino in the tropical Pacific, we're very likely to see the final global temperature for 2026 being even higher still.
[Other language spoken]
Around 3% of the energy trapped in the Earth's system has gone into melting of ice.
That includes the ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland.
Also glaciers in mountain and polar areas around the world.
Since 1975, these glaciers have lost around 9000 gigatons of ice, and the rate of loss has increased over time.
In 2025 alone, Earth glaciers lost more than 400 gigatons of ice, which is equivalent to around 1 millimetre of sea level rise.
[Other language spoken]
We're also seeing the ice floating on the surface of the ocean.
Melting Sea ice extents in 2026 remained largely below average in both polar regions and the Antarctic and Arctic sea ice extents were particularly low at the annual maxima.
This year in March, the Arctic sea ice extent maximum was the lowest or second lowest on record, and in September in Antarctica, the annual maximum was the third lowest on record with 2023 being the lowest.
[Other language spoken]
Now the melting ice and the warming oceans are both driving long term sea level rise.
It's measured by satellite altimeters since 1993 and over that.
Sea level hasn't just risen, but the rates of increase has risen as well, driven by increased loss of land ice and accelerated warming of the oceans, as well as a long term change in global mean sea level.
There's also year to year variations and these are largely associated with El Nino and La Nina too, which shift rainfall from the land to the oceans and back again.
So during La Nina, we tend to see a slowdown in the rate of sea level rise or even a dip.
And during El Nino, like we've seen this year, we see a surge in the rate of sea level rise in 2026 has reached again record global mean sea level.
So every indicator here is telling the same story.
We're seeing the heat trapped by greenhouse gases is showing up in the ocean, in the atmosphere, in the melting of ice and the rising of sea level.
And although El Nino itself will pass in time, the long term trend will continue.
[Other language spoken]
Thank you, John, for that update.
[Other language spoken]
Hello for Swiss News Agency.
Thank you as G for the briefing.
2 ranges of question from my side.
The first one on the temperatures.
So you said it's very likely that it's going to be higher that the wine pour .47.
Is it likely or very likely that it will go beyond the threshold of 1.5 and the end of the year?
And can you fully exclude that it's not going to be the 1.55 which was the record year of 2024?
And then the second range about the early warning initiative, so you said it, the number increased quite significantly in 10 years, but they are still around 60 countries, which doesn't have these systems.
And the goal when the initiative was launched was to reach early warning for everyone by 2027.
Can you already say that that goal will not be met by 2027?
And it seems that there was an increase, but now it's the pace is slowing.
It's, it's getting more and more difficult to to reach that goal.
So how long do youth estimate it will do you assess it would take to to reach that goal?
[Other language spoken]
So I can perhaps answer the first question.
So we assess 9 different global temperature data sets in this assessment.
The the average of those nine to September is 1.47°.
Some of those data sets are already individually above 1.5°, some are below.
Also, the uncertainty, the margin of error we quoted with that number reflects that spread of the data sets.
So we can't say for sure whether we're currently above or below 1.5° and that might persist at the end of the year.
That's a margin of errors coming largely from using the 1850 to 1900.
[Other language spoken]
Obviously in the 19th century there were far fewer observations, so it's quite hard to pin down exactly what that baseline is regarding whether it'll be a record year or not.
We're currently looking at the year to date that's within the top 4 and that's true across all the range of data sets we look at and it's likely to be true towards the end of the year.
However, with the El Nino developing, we might see when the final numbers come in that we're close to the top than we currently are.
But again, we have a spread of data sets.
So we we may not even know by the end of the year exactly what that ranking is.
Thanks on the early warnings for all question.
Certainly, yes, the ambition was high at the beginning.
And I think that we should aim at at keeping that ambition high.
I wouldn't say that we will not achieve the target, maybe that the target is moving faster than than than us.
And I think that this is a challenge not only for the these developed countries or the small island developing state, it's also a challenge for developed countries who maybe 10 years ago were not so aware of the needed of how, how much they needed also extra investment in their early warning system.
So I think that the target is moving, but I would take as a as a very positive outcome all the, all, the, all the achievements, in particular the collaboration, the political will, the country's engagement and of course the UN approach, collective approach.
[Other language spoken]
Yes, hi Nina Larsen, AFPI wanted to ask you about El Nino.
How likely is it that this will be the the biggest one ever?
And also, is there any hope that maybe the the dramatic, the dramatic weather patterns that we're seeing with El Nino could actually spur more action possibly?
Is there a possible way that this could lead to more action?
And what would you hope would be the most important decisions reached during the COP?
What are you, what would you define a success there?
[Other language spoken]
So I perhaps give an answer on the El Nino question.
So by some measures the El Nino is already breaking records.
Sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific which is one of the the key measures of El Nino are already record high for the time of year.
And the forecasts show that that will, you know those records will continue towards the peak of El Nino, which typically happens around December.
So already record-breaking and strengthening as well.
By all the measures the the gap is not quite so large.
For example, there some people use the relative Nino index which compares the temperatures in the tropical Pacific to the rest of the tropics because the difference in temperature is what drives some of the impacts of El Nino.
And by that measure, there are other comparable years currently in terms of action at COP.
I would say that the vision and the action agenda for this COP 31 is using science as a driver, evidence based action and implementation.
I would say that a Lineo is a very clear example of how important is to put a forecast before the action, but the action in place on time.
Not long ago we gave here a press press conference with OCHA to to showcase how OCHA was as the putting resources in the most vulnerable countries.
We also showcase that 30 countries have already an action plan in place, those countries that of course have less capacity to prepare in advance alone.
So yes, of course more can be done always we can do more and that's why our call at COP 31 is for more observations, better forecast, more coordinated action.
But I would say that we are quite pleased to see the early action that was driven by a right forecast of El Nino that was well communicated and had a a very strong outreach everywhere.
So I think this is an example that we should follow.
Of course, not all the forecasts will be as certain as this, and not all the phenomena can be forecasted in the same way.
But using scientific information for early action is the key word here, and I would appreciate if everyone would be using this for the purpose of protecting their communities.
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
Just to my first question, would it be possible to give some sort of, I understand that it's unclear in their different ways of measuring, but how likely do you expect it to be that when we come to the end of this that we measure all the measurements come in that this will have been the the largest El Nino across the board.
Is it possible to say something a little bit less wishy washy?
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So the the forecast we showed there in the presentation and the forecast from the global seasonal climate update produced by WMO and partners shows that in that Nino 3.4 region it will be very likely the the strongest El Nino by that measure.
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You prefer headlines and the there is a compelling figure that John already shared with you in the PowerPoint.
And you can see in that figure and you can write your own conclusions that the global temperature anomaly associated with this El Nino is completely off the charts completely.
You can see that in figure number six.
It's not the likelihood it is there.
So you can use that as an evidence stronger than any headline, I would say.
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OK, we have one more question at the back from FA and then we'll go online for some questions and come back to you.
Thank you, Antonio Roto from Spanish news Agency.
I also want to ask about El Nino, if you can give us more details about which regions are going to be more affected by droughts, floods, heat waves and other climate extreme phenomenons?
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When we issued our latest update on the on the global seasonal forecast for November, December, January, there we showed the areas where we expect raised above normal, it rains below normal and in general the whole world mostly will be affected by temperatures above normal.
That has not changed.
This is a three month average.
So that is still holds.
This is what we expect.
The figure is available and it can be used by all our stakeholders.
I would say that important fact now is to move from this global warning to regional assessments to national forecast and national action.
So that's why WMO started earlier and expects the regional and national meteorological services to do the rest of the job.
We cannot be anticipating a particular event in a particular part of the world that is on the national Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
Emma online from Reuters, good afternoon.
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The press release says the past 12 years have individually been the warmest on record.
That doesn't mean that each one has been warmer than the last, right?
If you could just clarify.
And also does that 12 year streak include 2026 or was it up to 2025?
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So the past 12 years have been the top 12, but not necessarily in chronological order.
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So just to clarify that.
And those 12 years do include 2026.
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Thank you, Radio France, Jeremy.
Jeremy, Radio France Online.
You have your hand raised.
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So then yeah, go ahead.
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The same question that Nina asked, but for the likelihood of 2026 being the the warmest on record, we heard that Copernicus says that there's a 20% chance that it will be the the the warmest on record.
Is that a good estimation according to you?
And when you said that there's a new meaning now to the phrase of the charts.
And if we know that 2027 will probably exceed 26 because of El Nino, how long till we get new charts?
And, and, and as reporters, we have to stop using that language like, you know, new records, because we've been saying that for, for years now.
It's a new record, warmest on record.
It, it, it, it keeps being even more complicated using that, that, that, that line.
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So regarding whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record.
So the Copernicus press release was talking about the Copernicus global temperature series.
So they make a prediction of why their numbers are likely to end up.
But as I mentioned earlier, perhaps the the nine data sets that we use have small differences between them and other centres who are doing similar kinds of predictions have come up with slightly different numbers for those those likelihoods.
What's likely to be the case is at the end of the year, we might not have a clear ranking between all of those data sets, but what is clear is that of the past four years will be the four warmest years on record across all of those.
Thanks Celeste.
Would you like to come in on the last point on the headlines and sort of the records that are being broken and how do journalists?
Yes, yes, it's always complex for us to communicate what is happening because it's moving.
It's, it's a trend.
So when you have a trend, it seems that we will be standing here for the rest of the time telling you this is a new record.
The the issue is not on us.
Maybe the issue's on the world how and when we can change this.
And you have us telling you good news that the the trend is broken.
But it's very hard to communicate the trend and, and, and, and what does it mean?
But we have the responsibility to monitor what is happening.
And there was an agreement in in Paris, at COPP that we wanted 1.5 to be the limit for the anomaly.
And so we are monitoring this anomaly with respect to pre industrial times.
And the responsibility is to tell you where this anomaly stands.
Government's responsibility is to change this trend.
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Sorry, Costas online.
Apologies, I I couldn't get your name, your hands raised.
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I was wondering if you can give us some more details.
You mentioned there's been an improvement in the number of early warning, multi hazard early warning systems globally from 55 to 136, but there are 47 UN member states that don't have them.
Why is that, and in which regions are these countries located and what are you doing about it?
Yes, you're absolutely right.
There is a gap.
What we can highlight is that the gap is decreasing, but we cannot hide that there is a gap.
Usually the gap as is associated with inequalities, lack of capacity, lack of means, and that's why WMO and the United Systems as a whole, we have a responsibility to leave no one behind.
So when the UN Secretary General launched the call, the call started with 30 countries that were essentially these developed countries and developing OR and small island developing states.
We see improvements there.
But again, those thirty countries were not enough.
And yes, we need to put more efforts.
Countries need to put more funding, support, development banks need to get more engaged.
The private sector has a role to play.
This is not only about AUN initiative is an existential threat for the world to be prepared for extreme events that are affecting everyone on Earth.
So it's not only the question, what are we going to do as the UN system is?
What are we collectively going to do as a humanity?
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Thank you, Albert DPA Online.
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Since El Nino plays such a big role in this climate update, I'd like to ask you to explain a bit more the interplay between El Nino and climate change.
Is there evidence that climate change leads to the development of more extreme El Nino events or to more extreme El Ninos?
Or does climate change at least magnify the effects of of El Nino?
I can perhaps try to answer this.
So we've seen in the historical record of the 20th and 21st century an increase in the incidence of El Nino events.
Whether that's strictly linked to climate change is a slightly trickier question.
I think what is clear is that when you have El Nino and climate change pushing in the same direction, then we see kind of more extreme events that extra energy, heat, moisture from El Nino can act as a multiplier for hazards that are already already there due to to long term climate change.
Yeah, thank you, ETS.
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Question still a question on early warning, but on the mountains because it seems that IFRC, the International Federation of the Red Cross will launch next month that he it's GA an initiative with six country since six countries on early warning in the mountain region and that was pushed a little bit by Nepal and what happened in Nepal.
So first our is the WMO associated to that initiative and what is the the connection with the broader global initiative that that you are working on?
And secondly, does that mean as well that's we tended to think too much, that's the coastal areas where the only ones which were vulnerable to extreme events and with Nepal that we realised actually that mountain region might be as much or even more exposed to the extreme meteorological events.
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Well, the four pillars of early warnings for all are the main drivers of moving the initiative forward.
So whomever starts be it IFRC, be it ITU, be it UNDRRO, be it WMO, we will all be, we'll all be on board because we, there is a recognition that you cannot have a strong response, which is the responsibility of IFRC if you don't have risk understanding, monitoring and forecasting and communication.
So that's, that's the building block of our sisterhood, I would say.
So yes, what Nepal put in put clearly on on the on the on the on the spot is that glaciers and all the hazards associated with the melting glaciers and permafrost and all the instability associated with that is still less understood than other hazards.
So it on the side of Dabia Mall, it implies to putting more efforts into the monitoring system.
That's why I mentioned that is also putting more efforts in understanding the connections and the cascading impacts and unstable permathros or rocks that are moved because of of this situation is something less understood.
And the high mountain regions are areas very hard to observe.
So WMO has a special programme on on polar and high mountain regions and we need to put more efforts there.
And and and it has the all the components from the observations to the forecasting to the science and to the to the special actions.
Because usually the the the steepest slopes bring another element to the to the to the timing of these events.
So this catastrophe was very hard to predict, but we need to learn from from these events.
And that's why last year there was the first year on glacier preservation.
So the recent understanding from countries like Tajikistan, for example, that this is the core issue for their planning their their priorities and so on.
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They are and will continue to be on board.
But certainly there are so many phenomena that we need to put to put much more emphasis that we need much more efforts there.
So I fully agree with you.
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And Nina, one more, sorry, just following up on the monitoring aspect of things.
Do you have anything to say about how AI is how how you're using that now to improve monitoring of especially high mountain areas?
Sorry, I don't have any specific answer to that particular question.
I would say that AI brings lots of opportunities to increase our capacities, but AI is essentially a technology or or or a tool that builds from data from what we know.
The problem is what we don't know.
So the risk is thinking that we will be able to predict something that we don't understand or we don't know or we don't measure with AI.
So I would put a very strong emphasis into the the importance of monitoring and then using all available tools for monitoring and that includes satellite in situ and of course AI to, to merge what is existing and, and, and exploit the value of that data.
But you need real data.
You cannot invent the data over areas that you don't monitor currently.
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So I think with that, we conclude the press conference.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Just to let you know that we will be having a press conference at the COP on Monday.
We're still working with you in F, triple C on the time, but it will either be at 1:00 PM or 3:30 PM Antalya.
So thank you again for your interest and we look forward to working with you and seeing and seeing yours and your teams next week.
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