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Powerful El Niño heightens extreme-weather risks through 2027, as countries brace for impact - WMO
Fuelled by extraordinarily warm waters across the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño climate pattern is expected to intensify in the coming months. Forecasters are almost certain that it will persist through February next year, with unusually warm conditions expected across the globe.
“These forecasts show an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 per cent that El Niño will persist through to February 2027,” said Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to journalists in Geneva.
“El Niño is firmly established in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in the region are already well above average and are continuing to rise,” warned Ms. Saulo.
Beneath the surface, an enormous reservoir of unusually warm water could further strengthen El Niño. “Sub-surface ocean temperatures are also exceptionally high, and in some areas, more than eight degrees Celsius above normal during July and early August,” the WMO chief said. “This means that there is a huge pool of very warm ocean waters that will fuel the intensity of El Niño.”
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the naturally occurring climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), marked by shifts in sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and corresponding changes in the atmosphere above.
The phenomena can disrupt weather patterns around the globe. El Niño typically develops every two to seven years, when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm. The warming releases heat into the atmosphere and can bring drought and extreme heat to some regions while increasing the risk of heavy rainfall, flooding and tropical cyclones in others.
The current El Niño is expected to peak towards the end of this year, according to the UN weather agency’s latest report released Thursday, with its climate impacts likely to persist well into next year. “The powerful 2023-2024 El Niño contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record. We should not be surprised if this record is broken,” said Ms. Saulo.
Scientists have not established that human-caused climate change is making El Niño more frequent or intense. But a warmer atmosphere and ocean can amplify some of its effects by strengthening the heat and moisture that fuel extreme weather.
“This El Niño will deliver a major blow to communities, economies, and supply chains across the globe,” the WMO chief stressed. “Many sectors will be affected: agriculture, trade, fisheries, health, energy, transport, water resources, disaster management, to name but a few.”
“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and extreme weather,” she insisted.
The UN weather agency has launched a “major mobilization” with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services which are on the frontline of delivering forecasts, early warnings and services to protect lives and livelihoods. The agency is calling for exceptional preparedness and response measures to reduce the risk of deaths, displacement and environmental damage. Early-warning systems have been strengthened, alongside efforts to deploy medical assistance in advance. But the expected strength of El Niño is raising particular concerns for vulnerable communities.
Ms. Saulo explained that preparedness means making decisions before the impacts are felt. Farmers, for example, may opt for crop varieties that can withstand drier conditions, while countries that rely on hydropower can use reservoirs to manage energy supplies and availability.
The duration and severity of El Niño’s impacts in individual countries will depend on their capacity to anticipate risks and adapt decisions accordingly. Ms. Saulo said that across Latin America and the Caribbean, UN partners are rolling out preparedness plans in countries traditionally hit hard by El Niño. Anticipatory measures include cash assistance, drought- and flood-resistant seeds, livestock protection, and flood safeguards.
"El Niño does not have to be a recipe for disaster. We have the focus, the foresight, to save lives and protect livelihoods," the WMO Secretary-General concluded.
Ends
Story: “El Niño Update – WMO” – Thursday 03 September 2026
Speaker: Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
TRT: 03’08”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
DATELINE: 03 September 2026 - GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
Geneva Press conference
Story: “El Niño Update – WMO” – Thursday 03 September 2026
Speaker:
- Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
TRT: 03’08”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
RESTRICTIONS: NONE
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
DATELINE: 03 September 2026 - GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
Geneva Press conference
SHOTLIST
- Exterior medium shot: UN flag alley.
- Wide shot of the podium with speakers at the press conference room.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “These forecasts show an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 per cent that El Niño will persist through to February 2027.”
- Wide shot of the press conference room.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “El Niño is firmly established in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in the region are already well above average and are continuing to rise.”
- Wide shot of the press conference room.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “Sub-surface ocean temperatures are also exceptionally high, and in some areas, more than 8 degrees Celsius above normal during July and early August. This means that there is a huge pool of very warm ocean waters that will fuel the intensity of El Niño.”
- Medium shot of the podium with speakers.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026, but its impacts will be felt long after that, including on global temperatures. The powerful 2023-2024 El Niño contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record. We should not be surprised if this record is broken.”
- Wide lateral shot of the podium and press conference room.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “This El Niño will deliver a major blow to communities, economies, and supply chains across the globe. So, many sectors will be affected: agriculture, trade, fisheries, health, energy, transport, water resources, disaster management, to name but a few. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and extreme weather.”
- Wide lateral shot of the screens in the press conference room.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “How do you prepare? Well, you make different decisions in terms of what seeds you will plant. You will plant seeds that are capable of supporting less rain. And these are the type of decisions to take in ahead. And when you have hydropower and depend on hydropower, you will use your reservoirs to manage your availability of energy. So, this is the type of impacts and decision-making associated with having this information in advance."
- Medium lateral shot of the podium with speakers.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO): "El Niño does not have to be a recipe for disaster. We have the focus, the foresight to save lives and protect livelihoods."
- Various close shots of photo- and video-graphers, journalists in the press conference room.
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As world’s water reserves change, countries must prepare for a new reality: WMO
New data showing that rivers were at their lowest level for decades last year provides further evidence that the climate crisis is real and countries must act immediately to protect themselves from the increasing threat to communities and livelihoods, the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Thursday.
The key findings from WMO’s State of Global Water Resources 2025 report covering the hydrological cycle and extreme events in the five-year period to last year:
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Groundwater reserves are equally stretched and have been in decline since 2014, WMO’s report states, with nearly two-thirds of monitored wells worldwide showing levels lower than the historical norm and indicating a shift “further toward deficit…not recovery”.
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Glaciers disappearing
In 2025, for the fourth consecutive year, every major glaciated region on Earth lost ice mass, leading to short-term hazards including floods and long-term water insecurity, according to WMO.
Responding to a question about whether the changing global water cycle might have contributed to the deadly Nepal-China flooding disaster, Ms. Saulo explained that melting ice and rock was just one factor in the chain of events that ultimately sent a massive and deadly wall of water and debris downstream on 26 August, killing at least 1,367 people.
“You asked if it could happen again? Absolutely; the problem in this region is that there’s 63,700 glaciers at the last count,” she told a Press Conference in Geneva. “Even if you’re looking with remote sensing with satellites at these glaciers, you might see some faults, you might see some slight shifting, that does not mean necessarily catastrophic collapse. So, in order to plan for this, it’s very, very difficult. But the international community is looking very hard at ways in which we can bring people together to solve some of these monitoring issues.”
Data indicates that glaciers shrank between 2023 and 2025 with cumulative losses of 1,400 gigatonnes of water – or about one third of annual fresh water needs.
Every major glacier region on Earth lost ice for the fourth consecutive year.
“All 19 glacier regions around the globe lost ice; in Central Asia, Iceland, the Russian Arctic and western Canada and the United States, it was among the three worst years on record,” said Wayne Jenkinson, WMO’s Director of Hydrology and Cryosphere.
Some regions with smaller glaciers such as Central Europe, the Caucasus, the western Canada and the United States may already have reached “peak water”, Mr. Jenkinson warned.
“After this point, the glacier gives less meltwater each year simply because there is less ice left to melt. That matters for every community downstream that relies on water during hot, dry summers,” he explained.
Narelle van der Wel, WMO’s Head of Cryosphere Monitoring, Predictions and Services, stressed that while some further glacier loss is unavoidable, the eventual scale of the decline is not predetermined.
“Some glacier loss is inevitable, but total loss of glaciers is not yet inevitable,” she said, pointing to emissions reductions as central to limiting future losses.
Preparing for moving baselines
The report does not attribute every observed change to climate change alone. WMO says pressure on water resources and natural variability also contribute.
Mr. Jenkinson said governments need to prepare for “moving baselines” as historical patterns become less reliable.
“The situation 30 years ago is not where we are today,” he said. Countries, he added, need to prepare “for those changes that have really already arrived”.
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