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WMO - Press Conference: Global climate predictions for next five years - 05 June 2024
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Edited News , Press Conferences | WMO
WMO - Press Conference: Global climate predictions for next five years - 05 June 2024
STORY: Record temperature predictions - WMO
TRT: 2’05”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
DATELINE: 5 JUNE 2024 GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
SHOTLIST
1. Exterior medium-wide, UN Geneva flag alley.
2. Wide, WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett holding up latest report.
3. SOUNDBITE (English) – WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett: “In the past seven days, for example, many locations in North Africa, the Middle East, India, Pakistan and Mexico had temperatures of 45 to 50 degrees Celsius and even higher. And this is frankly too hot to handle.”
4. Medium-wide from elevated camera of podium speakers and journalists.
5. SOUNDBITE (English) – WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett: “There is a nearly nine in 10 likelihood that at least one year between 2024 and 2028 will be the hottest on record, even hotter than 2023, which smashed all temperature records.”
6. Wide, journalists and TV video journalists to rear.
7. SOUNDBITE (English) – WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett: “As our planet enters this new record-breaking era, we can expect to see more oppressive heat waves affecting the health of billions of people; more increases in marine heatwaves jeopardizing livelihoods and natural ecosystems along our coasts. More sea level rise threatening coastal populations everywhere, more intense rainfall events, pushing our infrastructure beyond its limits. The future scenarios many of us have feared are here now.”
8. Medium-wide, journalists and TV video journalists with cameras.
9. SOUNDBITE (English) – WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett: “Beyond the predictions and statistics, is the stark reality that we risk trillions of dollars in economic losses, millions of lives upended and destruction of fragile and precious ecosystems and the biodiversity that exists there. What is clear is that the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees C(elsius) is hanging on a thread.”
10. Medium-wide, Press room showing rows of seats, journalists and podium.
11. Medium, journalist typing on laptop.
12. Medium, photographer lining up shot.
World 'too hot to handle' as new temperature records beckon, UN weather watchdog warns
At least one of the years between now and 2028 will very likely set a new temperature record - breaking through the crucial 1.5°C temperature limit – whose dangers are already being felt - the UN weather agency, WMO, said on Wednesday.
Speaking in Geneva, Ms. Barrett noted that there is a “nearly nine in 10 likelihood that at least one year between 2024 and 2028 will be the hottest on record”. When this happens, it will be “the hottest on record, even hotter than 2023, which smashed all temperature records”.
She underscored, however, that temporary breaches do not mean that the 1.5 °C goal set in the Paris Agreement is permanently lost because it refers to long-term warming over decades.
The global average near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline.
There is a 47 per cent likelihood that the global temperature averaged out over the five-year 2024-2028 period will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era, according to the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Update; this is up from the 32 per cent likelihood featured in last year’s report for the 2023-2027 period.
Beyond the scientific data, the WMO senior official highlighted the impact on human health and survival first and foremost, echoing repeated calls by the UN Secretary-General for climate action:
“As our planet enters this new record-breaking era, we can expect to see more oppressive heat waves affecting the health of billions of people; more increases in marine heatwaves jeopardizing livelihoods and natural ecosystems along our coasts. More sea level rise threatening coastal populations everywhere, more intense rainfall events, pushing our infrastructure beyond its limits. The future scenarios many of us have feared are here now.”
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to keep long-term global average surface temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C by the end of this century. The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5°C risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather and every fraction of a degree of warming matters.
“Beyond the predictions and statistics, is the stark reality that we risk trillions of dollars in economic losses, millions of lives upended and destruction of fragile and precious ecosystems and the biodiversity that exists there,” Ms. Barrett said. “What is clear is that the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees C(elsius) is hanging on a thread.”
ends
Teleprompter
With apologies, Sir, for the slight delay in this welcome to the press conference of the World Meteorological Organisation and the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
This is under embargoed until the delivery of the UN Secretary General's statement, which will start in just under an hour's time in New York and should finish by about four 430 Geneva time.
So today the World Meteorological Organisation, we will be presenting the our report.
It's it's called the Global annual Decadal Update.
It gives projections for the next 5 years.
The lead centre for this report is the UK's Met Office and we are obviously presenting this on World Environment Day, so I will be on my left.
I have Doctor Co Barrett, who is the new Deputy Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organisation.
Dr Barrett is a climate scientist formerly with the with NOAA, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and she was a former vice chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
On my far left, I have Doctor Wilfrin Mufuma Okia.
He can answer any technical questions about the report and obviously he can give any interviews in in in French.
And then joining us, and thank you very much for for doing that.
Joining us on Zoom is Doctor Carlo Buon Tempo.
He is the director of the Copernicus, the E US Copernicus climate change service, which is implemented by ECMWF and Doctor Gwen Tempo will be talking about the the latest findings of the Copernicus looking back over the previous 12 months.
So we will be looking at WM OS looking ahead Doctor Gwen Tempo will be we'll be looking back you've received everything under embargo.
There's the press releases are available in in all languages.
If if you have any problems, please.
[Other language spoken]
So without further ado, I'll give the floor to Doctor Barrett.
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
Very happy to be with you today to release this report.
As Claire mentioned, the WMO Global annual to decadal climate update.
And it is really fitting to do this today on World Environment Day, although it is with some concern that we at the WMO once again sound the red alert on climate.
As the UN Secretary General has said, it is indeed climate crunch time.
The WMO Annual Global Annual to Decadal Report, which we are releasing today, provides temperature predictions for the next 5 years.
And the statistics are startling.
There is a nearly nine in 10 likelihood that at least one year between 2024 and 2028 will be the hottest on record, even hotter than 2023, which ******* all temperature records and witnessed extreme heat, droughts, fires, floods, and ice and glacier retreat.
There's also a nine in 10 likelihood that the next five years will be the warmest 5 on record.
There is a 5050 chance that the global temperature averaged over the entire five year.
Will exceed 1.5° C above the pre industrial era.
Last year's report, which spanned the years 2023 to 2027, put this chance at less than 1/3.
So we've moved to about a 5050 chance from one third chance and this report makes it clear that we are on a record-breaking warming path.
It's expected to get even worse over the next five years.
There's an 80% likelihood that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5° above pre industrial levels for at least one of the next 5 calendar years.
Back in 2015, the chance was close to 0.
And indeed, as you will hear from Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global average temperature for the last 12 months has already exceeded that level.
I just want to say though, beyond the predictions and statistics is the stark reality that we risk trillions of dollars in economic losses, millions of lives upended, and destruction of fragile and precious ecosystems and the biodiversity that exists there.
What is clear is that the Paris Agreement target of 1.5° C is hanging on a thread.
It's not yet dead, but it's hanging by a thread.
The Paris Agreement target refers to long term temperature increases over decades.
Not over a month, not over a year, or even over five years.
Temporary breaches do not mean that the 1.5 goal is permanently lost, but the trend is alarming and cannot be denied because we can expect to exceed the 1.5° sea level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.
What else are we predicting in this report?
Arctic warming over the next 5 extended winters is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global average.
Warm sea surface temperatures are expected to contribute to active North Atlantic tropical cyclone seasons over the next five years.
There have been 8 consecutive years of above average activity and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting another such year of above normal activity with a range of between 17 to 25 total named storms.
As our planet enters this new record-breaking era, we can expect to see more oppressive heat waves affecting the health of billions of people, more increases in marine heat waves jeopardising livelihoods and natural ecosystems along our coasts, more sea level rise threatening coastal populations everywhere, more intense rainfall events pushing our infrastructure beyond its limits.
The future scenarios many of us have feared are here now.
In the past seven days, for example, many locations in North Africa, the Middle East, India, Pakistan and Mexico had temperatures of 45 to 50°C and even higher, and this is frankly too hot to handle.
The extreme rainfall that led to destructive, destructive floods in southern Brazil in late April and early May were made twice as likely due to climate change, according to a new scientific study.
WMO is predicting that we will transition from an El Nino cycle to La Nina later this year.
But any cooling from La Nina will be temporary, a mere blip in the upward curve.
We all need to know that we need to reverse this curve and we need to do it urgently.
This is why WMO is speeding up the roll out of the Early Warnings for All initiative, which is WM OS top priority to safeguard people and economies.
I'm playing a role in helping to coordinate that at the WMO and we will be presenting our latest updates next week to our Executive Council where we will be laying in front of them an implementation road map.
Also next week, the Executive Council will examine the proposed implementation plan for our Global Greenhouse Gas Watch.
This is meant to inform mitigation actions and WMO members are improving weather and climate services to support and shift to renewables.
We remain committed to providing policy relevant science.
We look to decision makers to act on it.
The cost of climate inaction will ultimately be and already is far higher than the cost of climate action.
And with that, I'll turn it back.
[Other language spoken]
And I can make these comments available to you after this briefing.
Wilfram, would you like to add anything to that?
No specifically except to say the report we are issuing today is a collective effort of the best centre worldwide going for the America, Africa, Europe, Asia.
But this report also provides some regional insight in term of rainfall was the the report is saying that there'd be some region, for example Northeast Brazil where we might expect over the next five year in less than average temperature and other region like the sand in West Africa where we can have above average.
But of course, this will change from year to year and we need to update our forecast and this forecast is being update once a year.
So next year there'll be an updated.
Just to clarify, you said temperature, I think you meant precipitation, so.
Basically, this report provide also some but insight.
There'll be some region worldwide where in terms of precipitation we might see some strong signal.
One of this region being Northeast Brazil where we expect to have lower than average over five years.
In other places like West Africa, the sale, this stripe of West Africa where we are expecting to have above average precipitation.
Now this is this is an average.
The situation might change from year to year and we will have to monitor and update our forecast yearly.
But I will just briefly add that if you look at the, the accuracy of the past forecasts done under this the auspices of this type of report, we are seeing pretty a pretty accurate match between what we forecast and what we end up seeing.
[Other language spoken]
We can take additional questions at the end, but but now we'll we'll pass to our guest Doctor Carlo Buen Tempo.
He will is joining us on, on, on, on Zoom.
And as I said, he's director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Over to you, Carlo.
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
Good morning, everyone.
Great pleasure to be with you today, even if only remotely.
Can I share my screen or do you want to use my slides on on your hand Claire?
No, I think it's OK for you to share your screen here, if that's OK with that, Yeah.
Sure, but they need to be authorised to share my screen please.
Well, while I wait for this to happen, maybe I can start talking about the key point and fundamentally we are very keen, very happy to join.
Today is the statement and the work that W Moore is doing with the lead centre, because the report is fundamental and as it was said in the previous intervention is key to use this information to prepare for what is about to happen.
What I will mention in the next few minutes is about what has happened.
As Claire said in their introduction, this is coming from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which is one of the six thematic services of Copernicus, A programme supported and sponsored by the European Commission that has been entrusted.
The Climate Change Service has been entrusted to the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast and as some of you know, we have been producing bulletins on the on the climate and the evolution of the climate for the last few years.
And these provide an up to date snapshot on where we are in terms of globally, in terms of sea surface temperature, global surface area temperature and precipitation.
So there are several element that are striking of the climate at this moment in time.
May, May 24 was the warmest May on record globally.
And this is not an isolation.
This is not an isolation after a very long streak of record-breaking month that started last June, June 2023.
As you can see in this plot.
This is the anomaly of temperature with respect to the pre industrial level referred to the temperature of the last eight years of the 19th century as a function of the month of of the year and the the lower lines in different colours represent the anomalies of different years and the decades are represented in different colours.
The thick red line on top is what has happened over the last few months and as you can see we are above anything that we have seen before.
It's not the longest streak of record-breaking month.
This was in the previous linear event of the 19, 2015, 2016, but is the longest streak of months above 1.5.
So the first was July 2023.
And every single month since up until this past May, we have been above the 1.5°.
And as the Deputy Secretary General mentioned in that intervention, this doesn't mean that the Paris Agreement threshold has been exceeded, because the Paris Agreement requires an average over over decades.
Nevertheless, we have never seen before a period this long above the threshold of 1.5.
And if you if we average out over 12 months, so not this not a calendar year, but it's a 12 consecutive months, then we see that we are at above 1.6 and this is the highest we have ever been.
So the plot in this case represent the time series of this 12 months running mean anomaly with respect to pre industrial level and the tendency towards the warming climate is undeniable and it's very clear from the mid 70s onwards.
But what we have seen of the last year is unusual even with respect to this past trend.
If we look at where these excess, excessive temperature are located, we do see some feature there are connected with Amelia in particular you see a worm tropical Pacific and this is for surface air temperature.
But you see that the air temperature in the Pacific region is close or in some cases at the very top of what we've seen historically.
So the warmest temperature ever recorded.
What is important though to mention is that the contribution to this record 12 months wasn't coming only from the Pacific.
There is a very significant contribution coming from land in the Northern Hemisphere and even a larger contribution coming from tropical ocean outside the Pacific and in particular the North Atlantic and the Indian Ocean.
And if we look at the sea surface temperature, this is even more striking where the tropical Atlantic is at the record-breaking level for a vast part of of the basin.
If we look at the sequence, and in this case, this is the evolution of the sea surface temperature for the I3 part of the ocean.
Normally we use 60 N to 60 S to indicate the part of the ocean that is not not normally very nice.
And once more you see the sequence in visiting in this case in in temperature rather than in the normal space.
So the output temperature, average temperature of the oceans for previous years in grey and over imposed to those you see the 2223, 2015, 16 which was at that time record-breaking and over imposed or even farther up into the plot, the last 12 months starting from the 1st of June.
So these 12 months have been record-breaking for the sea surface temperature, but actually is even longer than that.
This is the 14th consecutive months with the highest SSDs ever recorded.
And here we highlight in colour the difference with the previous warmest.
In terms of SSDs and the SSDs, sea surface temperature that had been detected in this and observed in this last 12 months.
So this was a highlight of our bulletin.
The bulletin will be published tomorrow.
The press release has been shared under embargo.
We also have developed an application that sits on the web for climate falls that gives an up to date snapshot on the status of both air temperature and sea surface temperature in both cases based on the data generated by Copernicus Climate Change Service and in particular the V analysis of Copernicus.
[Other language spoken]
Thank you very much for those interventions.
And with that, we'll go to to questions.
So there was one in the room.
Could you please just introduce yourself and say to whom your question is directed?
[Other language spoken]
Bianca Hotier, correspondent for Global TV, Brazil.
That's why I asked you to just repeat the information.
So first one to cooperate you, you said, you mentioned in your opening remarks Brazil as well and a specific new study, Which study was that?
Was it already released?
I would appreciate if you could elaborate a little bit more.
And we saw the this problem in in southern Brazil recently, El Nino is now fading.
But what how could be this relief something briefly, how, how long can people in Brazil and southern Brazil just, I don't know, brief before a new disaster like this one?
And then I would also ask about the low, low level of precipitation in North East Brazil.
Is it how likely that it's caused by climate change?
And yeah, if you, I don't know, can translate for Brazilian people what it could mean like to have this low precipitation level, what consequence it could bring.
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
So just on the the very first bit of your question and then I'll, I'll hand over to to my colleagues.
There was a study released I think yesterday or the day before by World Weather Attribution.
So it's not a WMO report, but it is international scientists who are well known to the WMO community.
I can send you the link to that report after this.
But basically their findings said that climate change made the flooding in Brazil.
I think it was twice as likely El Nino played a role, but, you know, there was a very heavy climate change footprint.
But I'll send you the link to it afterwards.
So not a WMO report, but, you know, with very respected international scientists.
And I'll hand over to the yeah, with respect to some of your other questions.
You know, even with La Nina phase, we're still going to see warm temperatures over the course of this coming year.
According to the report that we released today, there may be a fewer very intense areas of the globe, but there is widespread warmth predict predicted across the globe.
So, but of course your second question about the attribution to climate change, you know, if we were only dealing with the kind of inter annual cycle of El Nino, La Nina, some of the other oscillations, you would see more of a horizontal change in temperature over time.
But as you've seen from the graphs that were shared by Copernicus, we are on a significant upward trend and even the trend across the the last year is significantly higher in the past.
So I think it's very clear that we're seeing a climate change signal there.
Wilfred, did you want to talk about?
[Other language spoken]
Thank you very much for your question.
If you don't, yeah, thank you.
So regarding your question with respect to La Nina and the relief, I think the one thing we normally do within WMO is to make sure we work In Sync with the national Med services, the member, member, because one issue with the forecast we are providing, they provide a kind of planetary scale view, but all the detail, the granularity comes from the national medical services.
So we are supplying information to the country and for the country to go down to the level of the society, the town and so forth.
Now even if we were to move and that was clearly explained by the Secretary General from El Nino to La Nina, in the La Nina world, they are region which are prone to some strong signal.
For example, the Amazonia is a place where we know there'll be lots of rain.
So again, it's for us to provide the information in time and for member to act open it.
Other yes, centre.
Thank you for taking my question, Claire.
I'm journalist from the CMG China Media Group.
I according to the report, I noticed that it is said that the short term warning doesn't equate to a permanent breach of the target of the Paris agreement.
[Other language spoken]
So could you please, could you please to explain to that what can we do for achieving that target that Butte?
[Other language spoken]
Thank you very much.
I'll take a step at answering that question and then it may be that Carlo wants to come in.
But if I understood your question correctly, you're, you're asking about this Paris Agreement target of 1.5 and how we have both said that, you know, surpassing 1.5 for a month or a year or even for five years isn't equivalent to kind of missing the Paris Agreement target.
Climate scientists actually estimate temperature across many decades, 2020 years.
And so at this stage we can't say according to that parameter that we have passed 1.5°.
Now I think the end of your question was what can we do?
Well, I mean, we are clearly on a path where we need to be changing that curve instead of an upward trend of temperature.
We've got to engage in the climate mitigation activities that have been clearly identified by scientists and policy makers to reduce our reliance on fossil fuel, embrace renewable energy and other carbon net 0 or even net negative activities.
And then unfortunately we are at a point where we are very reliant on adapting, adapting to a warmer world and all of the impacts that are associated with that, increases in extreme hazardous weather and climate impacts.
So it's kind of a multi pronged approach that we need to be engaging in to eventually stop this problem through mitigation, but also in the meantime adapt to the changes that we are facing now and we'll face with increasing frequency in the future.
And if you follow the UN Secretary General's statement in in 30 minutes, he obviously, you know, does have some, you know, a road map for for action future ideas.
Carlo, would you like to say anything in addition?
Well, I think the key points have been been mentioned already.
Roughly speaking, we are of the order of 10 years away to the moment where the 1.5 will be reached in the terms of the Paris Agreement.
So this has not happened.
Now we don't know exactly when it will happen, but the sort of time frame is not several decades or or or centuries.
We are talking about a time horizon of the order of 10 years and the current rate and and the inner paper coming out today and the climate indicators is estimated at remaining carbon budget to give us a 50% chance of reaching 1.5 is shrinking and we have basically a few years at the current rate of emission a few year to react.
So to answer your question, if our goal is to maintain temperature in the long term below 1.5, then we need to act incredibly rapidly and within this the limit set by the carbon budgetable.
Are there are there any more questions in the room?
[Other language spoken]
And then?
Thank you, Officer.
I'm Yan from Xinhua News Agency.
My question is to Miss Barrett.
You mentioned that back to 2015, the chance of temperature exceeding 1.5 was close to 0.
Could you please clarify that the chance was to was the single year 2015 or the five years since 2015?
[Other language spoken]
Probably answer that because we, we received a question, same question.
So back in 2015 the chance of one year, so 2015 to 2019 being more than 1.5° C was, was was close to 0.
So it's that and I think you can see that in the in the chart that Copernicus shared, right, you can see how all those years below we're far from 1.5 and and in this last 12 contiguous months we've extremely **** as in comparison.
Thank you very much.
In 2015, the Paris Agreement, the world signed this agreement.
Can you tell us please what happened exactly from 2015 and today?
How was the implementation of this agreement in the world and especially in the?
Developed country in Europe.
United States, maybe China and others and Jane of question of Francais on dito Djork lepe developed dwarf EDP SO developed for combat lacorde Paris de Somiliardo Dora respect a yeah Pamela organisation international on abusement de cumbia a Madison question porqua lepi develope dwarf PE la factior merci.
Thank you for your question.
We are a scientific organisation, but I, I am living in the climate world so I can answer a little bit your question about Paris, the, the goals and what has happened since.
So the Paris Agreement in 2015 was a major milestone because for the first time all countries set their climate action targets.
They were self determined but they were registered with the, with the framework Convention.
We knew at the time that those targets were not enough to actually solve the problem.
So what's happened in the intervening years and in fact culminated last year was a global stock take of where we are and where we need to go.
And so last year that global stock take concluded and in fact the the conclusions from the Dubai COP create the conditions for more ambition.
We we've learned that we're actually not on track.
Things have improved.
I mean if you look at the uptake of renewable energy across the globe and actually the costs of renewable energy, we're seeing real progress.
So we are flattening the curve a little bit on emissions, but there is a far way to go.
And so now we're in a process where countries are re evaluating those targets they set in 2015 and we'll be kind of resubmitting their country driven targets in the near term.
The second question, Wolfram, do you want to answer it or if not I'll translate.
I think it's probably better actually for Co Barrett to.
So from what I understood you were asking about adaptation financing.
Is is, is that right?
[Other language spoken]
So if, if climate adaptation financing is is is is enough, you know, are we doing enough to support developing developing countries?
Is that it?
So why should developed countries pay to help developing countries?
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
Again with my limited understanding from a scientific perspective, it's, it's what I understand of the approach to climate financing is that in the early years almost all of that financing was going towards mitigation actions again going towards solving that problem.
But in recent years, there has been stronger requests from developing countries that they also need adaptation financing in order to address the impacts that are increasing and that they're already feeling.
So there have been, there's been movement in the negotiations to have a stronger recognition of the need for adaptation financing and that is in fact increasing.
So I guess that would be the answer to the first part of your question.
I think if you look at the contributions to climate financing worldwide, you'll see that there is a recognition among the more advanced economies the need to be investing in the work that is undertaken in developing countries and in particular in the least developed countries in small island developing states.
So there are a number of funds that have been established both within the UNF Triple C, but also in, in multilateral banks and enhanced bilateral investment that are targeted increasingly towards well developing countries writ large, but also towards a larger percentage of adaptation funding.
Have Catherine Fionca Buchon, could you just introduce yourself and say who your question is is addressed to?
So Catherine is on the platform.
[Other language spoken]
Good afternoon to all of you.
Thank you for coming.
Catherine Fionca Buchonca, France Van Catherine African Media My question is regarding what the experts said about the fact that we already know that certain regions will be more affected than others by drought or floods.
So I'd like to know what kind of advice and what kind of action would you encourage in preparedness in the global disaster preparedness?
And also the SG of West MO said that you had the organisation and the world had to organise to have more alert hubs in order for countries to react quickly and to prevent also deaf people.
And also, if you have anything to say about the fact that many countries are already affected by, for instance, the rays of the sea level in different regions, it's not new for certain parts of the world already have been affected by the climate change for the last 7 or 10 years.
[Other language spoken]
Thank you for your question.
[Other language spoken]
It's true that our predictions for the impacts that we expect to see across the globe are improving.
Certainly, our predictions for temperature are, as I've said previously, consistently on track.
Precipitation is sometimes a little bit more difficult, but also in those cases we are starting to be able to discern clear patterns that we're seeing in specific regions as we continue in this kind of climate change regime.
But but we still honestly have some gaps in observations that enable us to provide the level of prediction that we really need to support developing countries.
And that's why we have engaged in this early Warning for All initiative because we know that we need to address a suite of actions in especially developing countries to enable them to have the advanced information to be able to prepare for extreme events.
And the type of actions that we need to engage in to provide consistent and effective early warning span from understanding the kinds of risks that are faced by a particular country, filling the gaps in terms of observations and forecasts.
Importantly, making sure that we have ways to get these forecasts and warnings out to the citizens, you know, through mobile phones, through warning systems in countries, and then making sure that we have the financing in place, the governance in place, the ability to react to the kinds of changes that we're seeing in country.
So that's kind of disaster response and also building resilience over time to the types of impacts that we see.
And it really is through that entire value chain that early warning ends up being effective.
Did that answer all your question?
Thank you, Clara, for for giving me the floor back.
[Other language spoken]
And what you just said about the gaps in prediction, does it mean that there's a lack of data that means that the country, some countries are unable to share observations because they're not equipped properly to transfer data to the headquarters and that it can't be shared among the countries?
And also do you have a process that countries are supposed to follow?
Because you just mentioned that if there you have data and you have your predictions, you should be able, I mean the country should be able to inform population.
So is there an official plan process that country should?
Follow and did you participate to the last meeting of Artificial Intelligence for good forum with ITU using artificial intelligence in in order to fill gaps and inform populations through for instance, mobile phones?
[Other language spoken]
Help me to remember the three-part question here.
I'll answer the easy one.
Yes, I participated in a part of the AI for Good summit that happened here in town last last week.
And in particular, I was speaking at a session that was looking at the use of AI for early warning.
And there are some very interesting examples of the way that we are doing some work in that space with artificial intelligence to evaluate kind of disasters and to help determine the ways that we could foresee those disasters and effectively respond.
So that was one piece.
You asked the question about whether I was saying that there are observational gaps in countries.
[Other language spoken]
That is a core piece of what's missing in terms of country's ability to provide the observations and data that they need to be able to foresee what's coming their way.
And we are very focused on that in the early Warning for All initiative.
In fact, we've established A sustained observation financing facility that is designed very much to help plug these gaps in, in developing countries because it's, it's important, you know, in some of these countries we do have some basic capabilities for observing, but, but often we they're not sufficient to be able to give us the predictability that we need in order to say what's coming, coming your way.
So we both need to expand the number of observational sites and also the the global science community needs those observations to feed up into our, our collective understanding so that we can do a better job of predicting across the globe.
So yes, we I did say that there are gaps that need to be addressed.
And there was a third piece to the question.
Catherine, could you just tell us the, the third part of your question?
[Other language spoken]
You know, I'm afraid that I, I forgot myself.
[Other language spoken]
No, I mean it was, it was more I understand what you said.
I think it was 1-2 questions in one about filling the gaps, meaning that there was a lack of data observation, but also the equipment.
So maybe that is the one, the aspect that I, I wanted to, to know to better know and, and now that I have the floor back.
Also, we often speak about observation data in developing countries, but what about developed countries we see in Europe or in other countries so many people affected deaths.
Even regions like in France where authorities have decided to evacuate an old city village and decided to in fact forbid people to ever go back there, they will relocate the inhabitants because the place is has too many floods, got too many floods the last couple of years.
So what about political decisions also in, in, in the Western countries that are supposedly more aware and able to inform populations?
[Other language spoken]
Carlo, Do do you want to given you know Copernicus his experience with, with data sharing and in Europe, do you, do you feel comfortable answering, answering this?
[Other language spoken]
So can can I be come in just briefly on observations not here anymore for some reason?
No question what's happening.
Sorry, the question was on OK.
It was also sort of on data, data exchange in, in, in, in Europe.
And there was the example cited of authorities evacuating, as, you know, an area in France which was prone to, to, to, to, to flooding.
And maybe you could exchange, explain how Copernicus Climate Change Service your, you know, your sort of free data, free data policies and how you inform government's preparedness in in Europe, because that really is probably, you know, a very good example for the rest of the world.
[Other language spoken]
I think there was a technical fix, so I may have missed but part of of your question.
So I start with the point I was keen to make and and I'll touch on what I understand being your question.
If I'm on off track, please correct me and and I'll come back.
So the point I was keen to mention is in relation to observation is that observation are crucial, even more so now that we use AI and much learning, but not only the near real time observation about what's happening, they're also very important.
The old observations about what has happened in the past.
And if you look at the record outside Europe and North America, well, if you go in the free satellite era in the 1960s or 1940s or beginning of the century, the coverage is very sparse.
So something we are as a Copernicus, we are doing very much jointly with WMO and with the IBA portal is to support nation in their rescuing of all data.
And this data is very, very valuable to understand how the climate works.
And this understanding will allow us to make more precise predictions which can help prepare for the upcoming extreme event.
Now on the second part, which is requires some level of interpretation because of the technical glitch, but I, I understand you were asking me, Claire to comment about the relationship between Cooper and because and the member State, the national mass services here.
So this is a fundamental element of what we are doing not only within cooperating this programme, but in general at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast, which is an international institution and whose basically members are national mass services.
So we work for the national mass services and we want to equip them with the best available data and information that can provide input in, in the early warning, can provide input into their decision support system in their operation and in their own products.
So we work hand in hand with them and we are supporting their activities.
That's our primary goal really.
And in in that sense, what Copernicus does in in that space is to provide, as Claire was saying, free and open data for anyone to use, no restrictions about the climate of today, the climate of the past and the upcoming condition for the next few months all the way down to the end of the century.
And maybe I'll just kind of pick up on the part of your question that was kind of focused on maybe flooding that takes place that just doesn't allow people to ever go back there or some extreme hazard where it's impossible to then rehabitate a place.
And I think you used a European country.
But I think the important point here is that these types of extremes are being felt across the globe.
And yes, there are some countries that have adequate early warning observations, a long history of being prepared.
And still with the changes that we're seeing with climate change, they can't keep up.
We're starting to see novel storms.
We're starting to see floods coming down from the sky that surprise cities, even in the most developed countries and cause fatalities, Quite frankly, I've seen them in my own country.
So I mean, it's just to put a fine point on it that this is a global problem where we're seeing global impacts and it no one is really spared from the challenges.
[Other language spoken]
And I think we should wrap up actually, because the UN secretary general is due to speak very, very shortly.
And we obviously don't want to, you know, to, to to take take up, you know, his, his space or to stop you from watching his, his speech.
So as I said, the this is embargoed until after the UN Secretary General's speech has finished.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Please tune into the UN Secretary General's important statement.
You should have all got the links, the links to it.
If there are any follow up interview requests, we can, we can accommodate them now.
And thank you very much indeed for for your time and thank you to Carlo for joining us.
And thank you to Co and Wilfren as well.
Thank you very much.