The United Nations Office at Geneva
Multimedia Newsroom
WMO Press conference 06 September 2023
/
43:18
/
MP4
/
2.5 GB
STORY: Worsening air quality through heatwaves - WMO
DURATION (TRT): 2:24"
SOURCE: UNTV CH
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH/NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16/9
DATELINE: 6 September 2023, GENEVA SWITZERLAND
FORMAT: HYBRID PRESS BRIEFING
- Exterior medium shot: UN flag alley, UN Geneva
- Wide shot: speakers behind podium, attendees at the press conference, screens with speaker
- SOUNDBITE (English) – Clare Nullis, WMO spokesperson: “Global sea surface temperatures are unprecedented. Antarctic sea ice is unprecedentedly low for this time of year and it was the hottest August on record by a big margin. It’s the second hottest month ever and this follows July 2023 which was the hottest month on record.”
- Medium shot: attendees at the press conference
- SOUNDBITE (English) – Clare Nullis, WMO spokesperson: “This record breaking summer sets the scene for the fact that we are seeing more extreme heat, we are seeing more heatwaves. This does have an impact on human health and on air quality.”
- Wide shot: speakers behind podium, attendees at the press conference, screens with speaker
- SOUNDBITE (English) – Lorenzo Labrador, WMO scientific officer: “The coincidence of high temperature and high levels of particulate matter, such as from forest fires or desert dusts, poses a dangerous health risk for large parts of the population in the world.”
- Wide shot: attendees, cameramen/women and sound engineers at the press conference
- SOUNDBITE (English) – Lorenzo Labrador, WMO scientific officer: “The lengthy heatwave in September of 2022 over the northwestern United States, which correlated with large wildfires and a significant degradation in air quality over the region.”
- Close shot: attendee taking notes at the press conference
- SOUNDBITE (English) – Lorenzo Labrador, WMO scientific officer: “During July 2022, a heatwave was observed across Europe, where hundreds of air quality monitoring sites exceeded the World Health Organization ozone air quality guidelined level of a hundred milligrams per meter cube for an eight hour exposure.”
- Medium shot: attendees and cameraman at the press conference, screens with speaker
- SOUNDBITE (English) – Lorenzo Labrador, WMO scientific officer: “Air quality and climate change should be studied not as separate subjects but should be studied together. They are inseparable in the sense that many of the gases that are responsible for climate change are also emitted by the same sources that cause air pollution. Furthermore, there is an intricate link in the set of chemical reactions whereby atmospheric pollutants are produced in part from global greenhouse gases.”
- Medium shot: speakers behind podium at the press conference
- Close shot: attendee taking notes at the press conference
- Close shot: camerawoman and sound engineer at the press conference
Worsening air quality through heatwaves - WMO
Climate change is having a measurable impact on air quality and therefore human health, meaning the two must be tackled together, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Wednesday.
“This record-breaking summer sets the scene for the fact that we are seeing more extreme heat, we are seeing more heatwaves. This does have an impact on human health and on air quality,” said Clare Nullis, WMO spokesperson, at a press conference at the United Nations in Geneva.
The 2023 WMO Air Quality and Climate Bulletin noted that high temperatures are not only a hazard by themselves, but they also trigger damaging pollution.
“The coincidence of high temperature and high levels of particulate matter, such as from forest fires or desert dusts, poses a dangerous health risk for large parts of the population in the world,” stressed Lorenzo Labrador, WMO scientific officer.
Echoing that message, Ms. Nullis noted that global sea surface temperatures were “unprecedented” while Antarctic sea ice was “unprecedentedly low for this time of year”.
In addition, August was the hottest on record “by a big margin. It’s the second hottest month ever and this follows July 2023 which was the hottest month on record.”
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Smoke from wildfires contain chemicals that affect not only air quality and health, but also damage plants, ecosystems and crops.
“The lengthy heatwave in September of 2022 over the northwestern United States, which correlated with large wildfires and a significant degradation in air quality over the region,” said Mr. Labrador.
He added that “during July 2022, a heatwave was observed across Europe, where hundreds of air quality monitoring sites exceeded the World Health Organization ozone air quality guide lined level of a hundred milligrams per meter cube for an eight-hour exposure.”
WMO pointed out in their report that people who live and work in cities experience the most intense conditions when it comes to heat since they are surrounded by tall buildings.
“Air quality and climate change should be studied not as separate subjects but should be studied together”, according to WMO’s Mr. Labrador. “They are inseparable in the sense that many of the gases that are responsible for climate change are also emitted by the same sources that cause air pollution. Furthermore, there is an intricate link in the set of chemical reactions whereby atmospheric pollutants are produced in part from global greenhouse gases.”
WMO released its report ahead of Thursday’s International Day of Clean Air for blue skies.
-ends-
Teleprompter
OK, good morning everybody.
This is the first press conference of the World Meteorological Organisation in this new press room.
So we thank our colleagues at the UN and UNTV for accommodating us and for their for their patience with us.
So this is the press conference of the World Meteorological Organisation on the Air Quality and Climate Bulletin which we are issuing today.
It's ahead of Clean Air for Blue Skies day tomorrow.
Just as an introduction to that, we have posted on our website this morning press release that Earth just had its hottest 3 month period on record with unprecedented sea surface temperatures and much extreme weather.
This is according to the data by the Copernicus, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, which is implemented by ECMWF.
[Other language spoken]
Antarctic sea ice is unprecedentedly low for this time of year, and it was the the hottest August on record by a big margin.
It's the second hottest month ever.
And this follows July 2023, which was the hottest month on record.
There's more details on that in in in the press release on on on our website with quotes from the UN Secretary General, WMO Secretary General and the head of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
So this record-breaking summer sets the scene for the fact that we are seeing more extreme heat.
[Other language spoken]
This does have an impact on human health and on air quality.
And so with those words, I'll hand the floor over to my scientific colleague, Dr Lorenzo Labrador.
He coordinates the bulletin.
Then on the far left, I have Sarah Bazart and she is if you have questions specifically on wildfires and sand and dust storms, she can, she can respond to those.
But Doctor Labrador will be will make the main presentation.
Thank you very much.
[Other language spoken]
Good morning, everyone.
It is my pleasure to present to you the third version, the 3rd edition of the WMO GO Air Quality and Climate Bulletin.
This is the third edition of this flagship publication and as with previous editions, it aims to provide annual updates on the relationship and linkages between climate and air quality, as well as provide examples on how the 2 are highly dependent upon each other.
This year's bulletin is an update on the year 2022 and put the spotlights on heat waves and their effect on air quality.
The bulletin is based on input from experts in WM OS Global Atmosphere Watch programme, which monitors air quality and greenhouse gas concentrations and so are in a position to quantify the efficacy of the policies designed to limit climate change and improve our quality.
As in previous editions of the bulletin.
These bulletin is released to coincide with the UN sanction International Day of Clean Air for Blue Skies.
I will take you through the main messages of the bulletin.
The 2023 edition focuses on heat waves, but presenting a series of case studies that examine the interconnection between particulate matter, climate and air quality.
Heat waves are expected to worsen with climate change and several notable heat waves occurred in 2022, so we thought it worth to look further into the impact of these phenomenon on air quality.
[Other language spoken]
The bulletin starts by giving an update on the state of the global particulate matter concentration.
In 2022, concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 microns were less impacted by wildfires compared to the same situation in 2021.
Trends of man made emissions and natural variability played a larger role in controlling concentrations.
Having said that, they were important fire driven emissions over the Amazon basin in Alaska due to an active season fire season in July and August in those places and over South Africa in July to September.
Low concentrations over China, Europe and the United States and **** concentrations over India were mainly manifestations of decrease and increase man made emissions in those parts of the world.
Overall, the 2022 particulate matter smaller than 2.5 concentrations are consistent with the long term trends, with decreases across East Asia and Europe and increases in South Asia.
The bulletin also looked at the linkages between heat waves, large fires and dust storms, using two notable case studies.
Extreme **** temperatures lasting over many days foster favourable conditions for wildfires to ignite and propagate.
Once it started, wildfires expand rapidly as they encounter dry vegetation, which acts as a perfect fuel.
Situations like these can result in higher aerosol emissions than in the absence of heat waves.
An example of this is a lengthy heat wave in September of 2022 over the northwestern United States, which correlated with large wildfires and a significant degradation in air quality over the region, as reported by the US Environmental Protection Agency.
Over Europe, heat waves can result also from intrusion of hot air masses from North Africa, which are often loaded with desert dust.
In this case, the cost effect relationship is the opposite of the forest fire case.
Temperatures increase as a result of the intrusion of hot dust laden air masses from relatively far away.
Such was the case during the second-half of August 2022, where long lasting heat wave correlated extremely well with an increased concentration of desert dust, as reported by the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The coincidence of **** temperature and **** levels of particulate matter, such as from forest fires or desert dust, poses a dangerous health risk for large parts of the population in the world.
Although ozone is beneficial at **** altitudes, where it protects the planets from harmful ultraviolet radiation, it is damaging at ground level, where exposure to **** concentration is hazardous to vegetation and human health.
Furthermore, there's a strong link between the occurrence of heat waves and **** levels of ground level ozone.
During July 2022, a heat wave was observed across Europe where hundreds of air quality monitoring sites exceeded the World Health Organisation.
Also an air quality guideline level of 100 milligrammes per metre cube for an 8 hour exposure.
[Other language spoken]
These exceedances first occurred in southwest of Europe, later spreading to Central Europe and finally reaching the North East of the continent following the spread of the heat wave across the continent.
This instance of a heat wave a **** ozone concentrations marching in lockstep provide yet another example of the potential of heat waves to result in the greater air quality and aspects of heat wave that is not all usually highlighted as ozone formation is heavily dependent on sunlight and **** concentration of its precursor chemical species.
The hot and stagnant conditions created during heat wave events exacerbate ozone production by facilitating the build up of highly reactive chemical species over several days.
[Other language spoken]
As you can see, when you have a heat wave condition, this is conducive to a faster formation of photochemical ozone near the surface, as the reactions that lead to ozone formation are highly dependent on temperature.
Plus, the **** pressure conditions associated with heat waves also trapped the pollutants near the surface, which also facilitate this process.
The 23 edition of the Air Quality and Climate Bulletin also looked at the effects of fire emissions as a source of atmospheric nitrogen deposition to ecosystem and its impacts on these ecosystems.
Fires are also an important source of nitrogen compounds to the atmosphere.
These nitrogen containing particles and gases, which include nitrogen oxides, ammonia and organic nitrogen compounds, travel downwind where a portion returns to the air's surface in the form of wet and dry deposition.
While natural deposition can have a beneficial fertilising effect, many areas around the world receive natural deposition at rates that negatively impact ecosystem health and subsequently the quality of services that these ecosystems provide to humans, such as biodiversity, clean drinking water, food and forest products, and carbon storage.
A recent study highlighted the importance of fires, a large yet poorly understood source of nitrogen, to downwind ecosystems.
A wildfire forecasting system model predicted a significant increase in total nitrogen deposition compared to a critical low threshold.
Where critical low thresholds are the levels of deposition about which harmful ecosystem effects can occur, particularly in the state of California due to the historic 2020 wildfire season there.
Wildfires dramatically increase total nitrogen deposition to major natural vegetation types across California, with an average August to October 2020 relative nitrogen deposition increase of up to 78%.
Another study showed that fires may have contributed as much as 30% of total nitrogen deposition during the 22,000 and 8 to 2012.
Across areas of the northwest US.
Several predicted climate trends may influence the occurrence of wildfires over the coming decades, including global increases in temperature and regional increases, and in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and droughts.
These trends are very likely to increase the frequency and severity of wildfires in many areas across the globe, with potentially serious ramifications for enhanced downwind nitrogen deposition and associated impacts.
It is a known fact that air pollution can negatively impact crops and food production in these polythene.
We also report on 2 recent WMO reports that elucidate the numerous interactions between crops, meteorological processes, and air pollution.
Ozone concentrations, which are **** in many of the world's most important agricultural regions, can reduce both the quantity and quality of yields of stable food crops.
For example, globally ozone induced crop losses average 4 to 12% for staple food crops, with wheat and soybean losses as **** as 15 to 30% in key agricultural areas in India and China.
And while in recent decades emissions controls have reduced ozone pollution in North America and Europe, in emerging economies ozone concentrations are rising and may keep rising unless emissions are strongly abated.
Agricultural activities are important contributor to the emission of formation of particulate matter.
For example, land clearing and the burning of crop residue lead to extremely **** particulate matter pollution downwind in the regions where aerosol concentrations are ****, and PM can negatively affect plant metabolic processes as well.
Lastly, the 2023 edition of the Air Quality and Climate Bulletin concluded with an overview of how urban environment impacts air quality and climate.
A new WMO report examines the current understanding in this domain and the need for better assessing the canopy layer, urban heat island and the contrast in temperature between urban and rural settings.
Slightly above the surface at about 1 1/2 metres, where human health is mostly directly affected.
From an ongoing study conducted in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, both temperature and CO2 measurements from 2 parts indicated that urban heat island effect is reduced and CO2 emissions are partly mitigated by incorporating more greenhouse, more green spaces.
Excuse me with within cities pointing to the benefits of nature based solutions for climate change.
In conclusion, this bulletin takes on the same topic as next year, which is to push the idea that air quality and climate change should be studied.
Not a separate subject, but should be studied together.
They are inseparable in the sense that many of the gases that are responsible for climate change are also emitted by the same sources that cause air pollution.
Furthermore, there is an intricate link in the set of chemical reactions whereby atmospheric pollutants are produced in part from rubber greenhouse gases.
So the subject needs to be treated as 1.
And in this bulletin we have provided further evidence that this is the case whereby we see that climate change episodes go hand in hand with increased air pollution episodes in many parts of the world.
Thank you very much.
Thank you for that.
And obviously the content of the bulletin is about 2022, but we've seen a continuation in 2023, especially with the, you know, the heat waves, the terrible wildfires in Canada and Greece and parts of Europe.
Sarah, do you want to add anything or should we go straight to questions?
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
So we'll start in the room and then we'll go to Remote 1.
So AFP, if you if you could just introduce yourself.
[Other language spoken]
Hello, my name is Christophe Bocht.
I'm I'm reporter with Jean France Price here in Geneva.
Thanks for the briefing.
First of all, even if the news is not that great, my I, I have two questions to start with a million, but the the first one is about 2023.
[Other language spoken]
It was the hottest summer ever registered.
So can you give us a sense of how worse is it going to be compared?
How worse is the bulletin going to be next year compared to the 2022 figures?
And then I, I, I just had a, now let's start with that.
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
The the simple answer is that it's yet too early to say.
And even though this has been a record-breaking wildfire season in many parts of the world, particularly in Europe and and in Western Canada, you have to take into account the fact that the relationships and the interactions and chemical processes that link climate change to atmospheric pollution are not lineal.
So while we may expect an increase in atmospheric pollution due to these wildfires, which are partly due to climate change, we cannot say for certain how bad or how much worse the situation is going to be about this year.
We have to wait until the data is collected, until summer is definitely over and the scientists have time to analyse the data and come up with conclusions.
It'll be early and unfair to say that because what we have seen is has been worse so far.
We can expect worse episode pollutions.
It is a probability, but we cannot go out and say that at this very moment.
We have to wait for all the data to be processed after the year is over.
Yes, there is.
You were saying that it's really important to, to see climate change and, and air pollution together.
There is one thing that I find missing in the bulletin is the the impact on, on, on human health and how many deaths, for example, excess, excess deaths there are.
Is there?
I know that WHO had a study out in 2019 where they were trying to have an evaluation on that.
But could you foresee that you guys would work together to have everything in one in one built in in one document where we could see what the impact on on human life is?
Yeah, so the, the this particular bulletin is, is, is, is on, is on heat wave.
So we do work very, very closely with the World Health Organisation.
We've got a joint office, WMWMOWHO office on Climate and Health.
And in fact, next week on the 14th of September, we are releasing a report United in Science.
So that's a compilation of, of science from, you know, many different partners within the UN and outside.
And there is a chapter in that on, on, on climate and health.
And that does give figures on, on, on, on heat waves as well.
So, so that will that will be next week.
Well, I I could add to that the example of the heat wave and **** surface ozone episode that the bulletin covers during the 2022 heat wave across Western Europe.
There we saw a clear relationship between a heat wave and increases in surface ozone beyond the guideline limits established by The Who.
So there you have a clear and direct impact on human health by having ozone, ground level ozone levels that are beyond what WBO has established as a safe level.
So you can see these kind of impacts.
Of course, it takes time for those data to be processed and for people, scientists at WHO to fully and directly assess the health impact of these kind of events.
Also in the bulletin is the PM 2.5 that is also another parameter that is considering this WHO air quality guidelines.
There are specific threshold accidencies where is you can assess the impact on health.
But in any case, it's very important also how the authorities are managing the alerts, then correlate the concentrations with the impacting health and then potential mortality indexes is as Lorenzo said is also having a composition that is the human intervention how the authorities are are managing the risk and communicate to the population.
This risk for the reason is very important the forecasting that we are conducting at WMO that forecasting activities for promoting early warning systems and help to the authorities.
[Other language spoken]
Yeah, I'll do you afterwards, I'll do a couple.
Bianca Rothier, Global TV, if you've had your hand up for a long time.
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
Yeah, my question is focused on Brazil.
I, I would appreciate if you couldn't share a quick view on the conditions in Brazil, like relation between the fires, the deforestation in the Amazon forest, for example, and the quality of the air, and also on climate change.
And I have also a more specific question, not sure if you are following, but there is an extra tropical cyclone that has been causing a terrible damage in the South of Brazil with more than 20 deaths.
What could explain it?
And could it be related to the climate change everything that have been facing?
[Other language spoken]
Thank you for your question.
I'll try.
I'll have a **** at the first question first.
The situation in the Amazon forest is a very complicated one.
The Amazon is a very complex system to begin with.
And we know that deforestation is one of the factors that is affecting the normal functioning of the forests and ecosystem and at the same time increasing levels of air pollution in areas of Brazil.
There are certain parts in the Amazon basin that have become net sources of CO2 as opposed to sinks.
So, but the the situation is very complicated and is very much in evolution.
So we cannot at a moment say what the situation will be down the line because that partly depends on how the deforestation and wildfire control works at the given time.
And this is also a situation that is changing by the year.
But definitely land clearing and a slash and burn agriculture in the Amazon basin are two factors that severely affect air quality and affect the the ability of the Amazon forest to sequester carbon for certain.
Concerning your second question, yes, we we are aware of that cyclone.
However, we we should not and are not in a position to ascribe anyone event to climate change in particular.
I mean what climate change does it's usually enhances the possibility or makes it more likely for extreme weather events to happen and to be repeated in the future that we have seen and studies are out that basically quantified the the likelihood of weather events increasing as a result of climate change.
But we should not fall into the temptation of adjudicate one single event to climate change.
They may be enhanced.
They may be more likely than before.
[Other language spoken]
It is an unfortunate event.
[Other language spoken]
So we'll go in the room now.
[Other language spoken]
Spanish News Agency.
[Other language spoken]
Isabel Sacco with FA, I would like to to clarify, in the press release, you're noting the negative impact of the degradating quality of the air and pollution.
But I would like to to be clear, if this degradation you, you observe this degradation all over the world or is in particular in some parts in some regions of the world, because at certain moment you mentioned this situation is less but in Europe and now we are expecting that in Europe that in East South Asia.
So if you can just differentiate the situation by regions and if a secondly on the on the impact on human health, could you just mention what are the conditions or pathologies that are exacerbated because of the aggravating situation of air pollution degradating situation?
[Other language spoken]
Thank you for your question.
Yeah, the situation concerning degradation of air quality around the world is a very complex picture.
I mean, when I was mentioning particulate matter levels around the world, that was very specific to particulate matter concentrations.
That was at the start of the bulletin.
That situation changes when you're talking about different pollutants, be them ozone or be them volatile organic compounds.
So it is a very mixed situation depending on the emissions that you have in different countries.
What is certainly true is that the whole world population suffers from decreased air quality.
So that is a global phenomenon.
It is worth tends to be worth in urbanised areas compared to rural areas, but those suffer suffer as well.
So we cannot go and then give you a global picture of what the pollution situation is, because it will depend on the time of the year, it will depend on the emissions at a particular point in time and a particular place in the world.
So you can, for example, specify what a certain pollutant is doing in certain parts of the world any one time, but in one way or another, the whole population of the globe is affected by degradation's inner quality.
Concerning your second question, which is the specific effects on human health that the graded air quality might bring about.
I'm not an expert in the topic, but I know that for example, for the case of ozone, you have an exacerbation in in cardio respiratory illnesses, particularly preliminary pre-existing conditions such as asthma, respiratory conditions and and heart conditions as well.
There might be others as well, but I'm not in the best positions to be more specific than that.
Then we'll go back.
Jamie Keaton from Associated Press.
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
I just wanted to try to get a bit of perspective on the on the heat record if we could.
Can we expect worse to come because El Nino has not kicked in yet?
I mean, we know that temperatures will fall in the Northern Hemisphere because the summer is ending, but how much do El Nino and the carryover effects from the hot summer and the **** ocean temperatures suggest that September and beyond could also see above average heat?
And if I could just maybe ask to Mr Labrador, I just want to be very clear, These heat waves that we've seen this summer will necessarily translate into poor air quality and thus health impacts.
Is that very, I mean, just very succinctly is that, is that what this all means, what we've seen in the last few months?
[Other language spoken]
Thank you for your questions.
Yeah, I'll try to address the first one, which is the the possible impacts of El Nino with respect to the air quality situation, degradation of air quality, that is not an easy one to answer.
[Other language spoken]
We have not fully started to see the effects of El Nino yet.
They will most likely be realised towards the end of the year, beginning of next year.
What the situation will be vis A vis the degradation of her quality, I will not venture to give you an answer because it depends on many interrelated and interdependent factors that we cannot really quantify this moment.
We know that we expect probably temperatures to be on the rice as a result of a Nino.
It tends to increase temperature in certain parts of the world.
[Other language spoken]
But how that will interact with climate change and in turn with air quality is something that we have to wait and see.
But if heat waves increase as a result of El Nino, yes, we we may probably expect a further degradation in air quality as a whole.
With respect to the second part of your question is whether we expect the the record heat waves that we've experienced this summer to have an effect on, on the air quality.
The simple answer yes, is that we expect to see some effect as well, as, as I said before, we are not sure of the magnitude of that effect, given the nonlinearity of the relationship between air quality and climate change and the interactions and chemical reactions that mediate both of them.
So we have to wait and see how the year will pan out at the end of it, what the temperatures will have been and what the measurements regarding air quality will be.
As we speak, the scientific community is very busy at work processing those data, collecting the data and processing those data.
And we're going to have to wait until the end of this year, beginning of the of of next year to start to see the results of the heat waves this year on air quality as well.
If I could perhaps just follow up on the first part of the question.
So the figures released this morning by by Copernicus Climate Change Service said that the this is one data set, it's the ERA five data set WMO when we compile our state of the climate reports, we use six data sets and the ERA 5 is is one of them.
So the era five data said said that the year to date, so till the end of August has so far been the second hottest on record, just behind 2016, which was a very strong El Nino year.
As my colleague Lorenzo said, traditionally we expect the temperature effects of El Nino to play out in the second year after development.
So in this case it would be 2024, but we are already seeing, you know, very **** temperatures ahead of the full impact of El Nino and the, the record Atlantic sea surface temperatures, for instance, you know, came ahead of and are not directly related to, to, to, to, to El Nino.
So, and just to remind you that back in May, the World Meteorological Organisation, we issued a report predictions for the coming five years and we said that you know it's 98% certain that one of the next five years.
So until 2027 I think will be the warmest on record and that there is a 66% chance that one of those years within that five year.
Will will pass temporarily and we stress temporarily will temporarily pass the 1.5°C limit.
[Other language spoken]
And now we go to Jeremy launcher ready of France.
Jeremy, I didn't say Lorenzo is is Francophone.
So if you would like to ask your question in French, please, please feel free.
[Other language spoken]
Claire And indeed I will ask it and then in French then is it possible?
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
In a prevision apropos the this effect, the chales de chaler Don la avenir measure who parle the chosky son deja passe telke lavac de chaler on de Mitrois.
Who will you now transrification this episode the the Sun de la Cerface don't you will see on a on a augmentation a SE for de la tode de mortality donde de chaler OC doctor plutoque Avanti rain prognos jeme Rafael Adeshoski so deja passe who who owner in evidence Clarefort de de SE fes de vac de chalor ciola sante humane de mil trois and the muse example of petrove ciola continental the same question seizure metropsi citia propodi de vac de chalor fair in in prevision apropos silver prefer a play long possibly take climatic climatic the intensifier a multiple intensity the the the figure apropos deja blue de vague de shallor con via Avon a de vague de shallor quizon OC 4 TAC persistent don't compare a tondre com la prepa de seven more Lia a la meteorology extreme levague de shallor von C multiple epithet ETR assay prefork ilete Avon possibility question Yatila de Chile mano Ouse liver men don't don't don't Antarctic on a unregistered complete Mon acid la norme don't on a rive de chileur meme Don de continent que som Pennsylvania on on ET a sound commence a true way of Ramon panormal don't don't Intel place Thank you for that.
Jamie, do you have another question?
[Other language spoken]
Hey, yeah, Claire, thank you so much.
I just wanted to follow up on on your response.
Thank you so much for that.
Just to be clear, I mean, based on the 2016 example that you mentioned and the fact that El Nino's effects haven't fully kicked in yet, are and, and air quality issues really aside, are are the warning signs including the **** surface sea temperatures all aligning now to lead WMO to believe that 2023 could be on track for a record too and that the public could expect worse to come in the months ahead?
The data which have just been released have say that we're so far the second warmest year on record.
We have to wait and see what happens, you know, for the for the rest of the year when El Nino will start kicking in more.
The example of of 2016, it was a 2015 slash 2016 El Nino and we saw the record temperatures in in 2016.
But obviously what is, you know, of particular concern this time around is the very **** sea surface, sea surface temperatures.
And to reiterate, you know, our prediction that was issued earlier this year did say that there is a 98% chance that, you know, one of the next five years will be the warmest, will be the warmest on record.
So it's, it's it's, it's a matter of time.
AFP yes, thank you.
It's not directly related to the bulletin, but there was a really interesting post overnight by a scientist called Patrick Brown that you might know.
He had published a recent study in Nature about the link between climate change and forest fires.
So there was a lot of talk about the study because, you know, climate change.
And overnight he came out posting on X that basically said he had been forced to push the role that climate change is playing to make sure that he was going to be published in, in, in an important journal.
So I was just wondering, first of all, are you aware of that?
And would you have a comment on that?
Because there is no a lot of debate and, and, and it also has to do with the topic we're discussing.
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
I read the post, it's very interesting the discussion.
I have to say from a research point of view, what is public of all in some **** impact journals and it's true that climate change now is a very trendy topic and if you can explain anything connected with climate change is having more visibility in media.
This is right.
And the study is really pointing questions that are beyond climate.
Is the again, the strategies beyond the occurrence of you have a risk and is the authorities and the mitigation and adaptation of strategies around this risk, What is playing a role then?
Yeah, it's very interesting discussion in this paper is pointing that some fires maybe are not really connected with climate.
It's more the fuel, the vegetation that maybe the authorities are not cleaning the forest then it's it's really relevant this discussion because not everything may be are connected with climate change and this kind of papers are pointing these facts and also how as a society we can fight, let's say about in from the risk that the information is providing you.
You have models, you have observations, you have projections, and you can use this information to to really face.
Any of these risks then?
Yeah, very interesting discussions.
If I can just add this also, I think there's a distinction between fire weather, so weather which is conducive to to to wildfires and the fire and the fires themselves.
So, you know, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, you know, do you do address, you know, the issue of fire, fire weather, but you know, you can, you can light a fire with, you know, with a match or a cigarette or, you know, faulty electrical wires.
And that's not necessarily to do with with climate change.
[Other language spoken]
The the the problem is also that he was forced to anger his story more on climate change.
That's what he's saying.
I don't know to make sure that it was going to be right.
So let me just ask very bluntly, is that something that would happen at WMO?
[Other language spoken]
I mean in WMO you we are doing research on understanding the processes that are connected with the idythical chemistry and the atmospheric chemistry and what is the the different processes connected with the increase of emissions of particular matter or other primary emissions.
And we try to assess really the impact in the different time schedules.
There are processes that occurs vary in short time, weeks, days, hours and there are others that are more connected with long range long term period.
Then in our case, we are focusing to identify those components that are more connected with climate change processes or climate itself and the ones that are more connected with weather.
If there is a priority in which is more important.
I can tell you that in our case, we are working at the same level.
There are also programmes that are focusing in climate like the WCR CRP programme and there is another one that is focusing in weather scales, meaning the WWRP programme, the World Weather Research Programme and the World Climate Research Programme.
And we are like cross cutting between both of them because atmospheric chemistry is in both scales and we are working, working together for for understanding better these processes and can give you more information and better tools.
[Other language spoken]
[Other language spoken]
With that, I can't see any more questions.
So thank you very much for joining us.
I know it's a very busy day with with human rights.
As I mentioned, we will be having a press conference next week with our Secretary General on the United in Science report.
So we'll send out details of that.
And thank you.
Thank you very much.