UN GENEVA PRESS BRIEFING

8 July 2025

Impact of United States Tariffs 90 Days after Pause

Pamela Coke-Hamilton, Executive Director, International Trade Centre (ITC), said a lot had changed since the United States announced a 90-day pause on so-called “reciprocal” tariffs on imports from dozens of countries. While the pause offered some relief compared to the reciprocal tariffs, a 10 per cent levy was added to existing duties, meaning countries—mostly developing countries—faced higher costs to export goods like apparel and agricultural products to the United States.

While the reciprocal tariffs would no longer go into effect tomorrow, as originally announced, but be extended for another few weeks until 1 August, this move extended the period of uncertainty, undermining long-term investment and business contracts, creating further uncertainty.

Economic uncertainty had real-world consequences on countries and sectors. One telling example of the current uncertainty in global trade was the fluctuation in gold and precious metals flows. In anticipation of higher tariffs, there was significant outflow from Switzerland to the United States since December. But that trend reversed after it was announced that gold and other precious metals were exempt from the reciprocal tariffs announced in April. According to United States import data released last Friday, trade flows had now rebounded, with imports into Switzerland up by 800 per cent, year-on-year, in May.

These changes in the trade landscape were part of a bigger trend. Since the beginning of the year, ITC had tracked more than 150 restrictive trade measures that had been introduced globally. These measures, layered on top of a general decline in world trade since the onset of the war in Ukraine, with its related supply chain disruptions, insecurity and rising commodity prices, had put strains on all economies.

All these factors hit those with the most to lose the hardest. The countries facing the highest reciprocal tariffs were also the least developed, with Lesotho, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Madagascar and Myanmar facing rates between 40 and 50 per cent. Lao People's Democratic Republic and Myanmar now both faced a 40 per cent rate, among the highest announced thus far. Lesotho, which sent close to 60 per cent of its apparel exports to the United States, was set to face a 50 per cent tariff, overriding the duty-free access provided by the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which could in any case expire in September. The future of the country’s top industry was in question, and up to tens of thousands of jobs were at risk.

Viet Nam, one of three countries that had negotiated a new rate with the United States and a developing country which sent more than a quarter of all exports to the United States – now faced a 20 per cent tariff. Viet Nam’s auto and auto-related exports to the United States totalled around 937 million United States dollars last year, so the newly agreed-upon tariff could reshape trade between the two countries, with implications for other countries in the region. It was also announced over the weekend that countries aligning with certain policies of BRICS countries would face an extra 10 per cent tariff.

Adding to the uncertainty created by the tariffs and related trade measures were deep cuts in development aid, which were creating a dual shock for developing countries in the worlds of trade and aid. G7 countries, which together accounted for around three-quarters of all official development assistance, were set to slash their aid spending by 28 per cent next year, compared to 2024 levels. This would be the biggest cut in aid since the G7 was established 50 years ago.

In today’s context, a “perfect storm” was brewing—just as trade was becoming more unpredictable, external support through aid was also shrinking. There were three actions developing countries could take to restore a sense of stability and predictability, and even find new opportunities to grow.

The first was to strengthen relations with neighbours. Countries could invest in building up and strengthening regional value chains in key sectors, from critical raw materials and electric vehicles to pharmaceuticals. Ms. Coke-Hamilton highlighted the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which was the redefinition of Africa's relationship with the world, with the potential to change the terms of trade. Intra-African trade stands at 14 to 16 per cent, but if that figure increased to 40 or 50 per cent, intraregional trade could accelerate and revolutionise economic growth, as had been seen in Europe and Asia, where intraregional trade made up 75 per cent and 60 per cent of total trade, respectively.

The second action was to double down on value addition. Countries needed to commit to processing goods in-country before export to retain more value at a time when external factors put pressure on export revenues. Commodities made up 59 per cent of exports of least developed countries. This share was around twice as high as the share of commodities in exports of other developing and developed countries.

Least developed countries had strong export potential in manufacturing. Some 43 per cent—amounting to 109 billion United States dollars—of the export potential of least developed countries in manufacturing in 2029 was currently untapped. Countries could use ITC’s Export Potential Map, relaunched last week with new data, design and functionalities, to find new markets for priority sectors.

The third action was to make the small business agenda a political one. The United States’ tariffs were influencing the trade landscape from the top down, but stability could come from the ground up. When small businesses of developing countries were able to continue and even scale operations, they helped bring about stability, as they made up 90 per cent of all companies and two-thirds of jobs worldwide.

For small businesses to participate more meaningfully in global markets, their insights, innovations and pain points needed to be reflected in policies. That was why ITC was partnering with South Africa to convene more than 50 ministers to raise the political importance of the small business agenda at the global level, through the first-ever Global SME Ministerial Meeting in Johannesburg on 22 to 24 July. There was no better time to host this Ministerial, as South Africa held the G20 presidency this year, prioritising themes like inclusive economic growth, financial stability and climate change.

Although uncertainties lay ahead in both the trade and aid landscapes, developing countries could still find ways not only to navigate these challenges, but to take on an active role in bringing about greater stability.

In response to questions, Ms. Coke-Hamilton said that if a business was not clear on the costs they needed to pay and where they could export, they could not plan or decide where to invest. Some countries had received letters outlining several different levels of tariffs. There was no clear ground; the sand kept shifting and there was no way to make decisions for businesses across the world.

Things had changed over the past 90 days. There had been attitudinal shifts regarding engagement on regional integration. Canada and the United Kingdom were recalibrating relationships with Europe. There was recognition by countries, especially in Africa, that they needed to turbocharge regional trade agreements. If the United States’ African Growth and Opportunity Act were to be withdrawn, it would be devastating for economies. However, there were also positives to the situation: it was promoting diversification, regional integration, and self-investment. China had announced that they would give tariff-free access to Africa. This was a major development, and it could swing things in a new direction. These changes would soon be reflected in trade flows.

Ms. Coke-Hamilton said she was not aware of what the long-term plan was, but she said she believed that, in the long run, these moves would have a negative impact on the United States economy.

Investors looked to gold in times of volatility, and Switzerland was the largest refiner of gold in the world. Flows in gold investment shifted from the United States to Switzerland once it was clear that tariffs would not be applied to the metal, and since then had increased by 800 per cent, demonstrating investors’ desire for stability.

The United States’ policy in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region was not clear. The United States was driven by the idea that it had lost competitiveness due to Asian countries, and its moves were an attempt to pull back some of this perceived loss. ASEAN countries were more nuanced in terms of their internal trade mechanisms and how they would respond. The 25 per cent tariffs on Japan and Republic of Korea were onerous and sent a signal that countries should be concerned about. Asian countries needed to consider how to protect their products and find new markets. Most of the trade between the United States and ASEAN countries was based on the United States investing in the region. It was not clear what the implications would be for these companies.

Julia Spies, Chief of Trade and Market Intelligence, International Trade Centre (ITC), said that tariffs imposed on competitors in other countries were important for businesses. Viet Nam had made a trade deal with the United States, but Viet Nam’s competitors had yet to receive tariff announcements. ITC was waiting for all tariffs to be announced to assess the situation.

Intensifying population movement as Afghans return from Iran

Sami Fakhouri, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Head of Delegation for Afghanistan said that last week, he visited the province of Herat the Islam Qala border area with Iran, and what he saw was heartbreaking. Busloads of people were arriving at the border, where it was extremely hot. These were families who, a few days before, were sitting in their homes in Iran leading normal lives. The next thing they knew, they were placed on a bus and sent to a country that many of them had left many years before.

In June alone, over 135,000 people returned to Afghanistan from Iran, and since the beginning of this year, over one million persons had returned to Afghanistan. It was anticipated that a further one million people would return this year. Mr. Fakhouri said that he had spoken with a woman at the border who said that she was coming to a country where she did not really know. Her story was one of hundreds of thousands. Many of the people returning did not know where they would be lodged. The common theme for the returnees was that it was very difficult to start over in a new country. Parents were worried about safety and security for their children, specifically education and safety for their daughters. IFRC was calling for returns to be conducted voluntarily with the utmost respect and dignity.

Afghan Red Crescent Society staff and volunteers were doing a remarkable job, distributing over 6,000 hot meals a day and are providing essential primary healthcare medical services to returning people, including psychosocial support, temporary shelter, and water. IFRC was doing the best it could with the resources it had, but the organisation did not have sufficient resources on the ground to cover even the average amount of people who crossed into Afghanistan. This came on top of the large number of people already returned from Pakistan.

There was hopelessness and desperation in Afghanistan, which came from the broken health system, mass unemployment, freezes on Afghan assets, and limitations on girls’ education. Many people were stuck in their homes with nothing to do and no sense of purpose.

This weekend, the province of Nangarhar, next to the Pakistan border, was hit by extreme floods. Many returnees from Pakistan who were trying to rebuild their lives in a country they barely knew were now losing their homes again. Over 250 houses had been destroyed, yet very few news outlets outside of Afghanistan had mentioned it. Sadly, the flooding was expected to continue.

People in Afghanistan were being deprived of the chance to dream. Action was needed now to get Afghanistan out of this situation. Action was also needed to prevent Afghanistan from falling into a deeper crisis that would be impossible to emerge from. The IFRC was appealing for 25 million Swiss francs to support Afghan Red Crescent Society operations at the border crossing, transit camps and final provincial places where Afghans are resettling. This appeal was currently only 10 per cent funded. If it did not receive these resources, the Afghan Red Crescent Society would need to make hard choices about who they could continue supporting. To tackle the many challenges Afghanistan was facing, swift and coordinated action was necessary.

In response to questions, Mr. Fakhouri said authorities had a plan for reintegration of returnees – they were preparing some areas to receive these families - but resources were limited. It was not easy to reintegrate these people in a country with high unemployment. Some of these people would have to leave again if they could not find a job. The IFRC was providing shelter to whoever it could and was trying to scale up efforts, but resources were limited.

Funding for Afghanistan in general was low. The economy was not doing well, and authorities had limited capacities. There were concerns of famine, and the millions of returnees would only increase the severity of the situation.

Most of the returnees did not have a say in coming back to Afghanistan. Many had mental scars; they had left Afghanistan for a better life and had found it in Iran, but now needed to start from scratch. Between three and four million Afghan people were living in Iran. The economy in Iran was suffering and the Iranian Government wanted to keep jobs for Iranians. The conflict with Israel had also impacted the decision to return Afghans.

Babar Baloch for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said more than 1.5 million people from Pakistan and Iran had been returned to Afghanistan since 1 January, and more than 1.2 million from Iran alone. The highest daily average of Afghan returns this year came last week on 4 July, when 50,260 persons arrived, and the number did not seem to be slowing down. Arrivals from Iran had picked up since June this year; more than 600,000 had arrived since 1 June. Most were families with children, many who had never set foot in Afghanistan.

In response to questions, Mr. Baloch said that many returnees were talking about experiencing detention and harassment. The profile of this population was very urban; many had never seen Afghanistan. The large number of returnees was making the situation chaotic.

Psychological scars would stay with Afghans who had been forced to come back. Family separation was a big concern for returnees; 41 per cent of returnees who UNHCR had spoken to had mentioned family separation. The future of returnees’ children was also a big worry.

Iran had been a generous host for Afghans for over 40 years and Afghans were thankful for the role that Iran had played, Mr. Baloch noted. The returns were not a new development; returns from Iran had happened before, but no one had imagined that they would be conducted to this scale. UNHCR was repeating its calls for the voluntary, gradual return of Afghans, as the situation was dire and returns of Afghans in these large numbers were unmanageable.

Concerns over Deaths at Ongoing Protests in Kenya

Ravina Shamdasani for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said that the Office was deeply troubled by the killings yesterday of at least 10 people, as well as looting and destruction of property in Kenya as police and other security forces responded to violent protests in the capital Nairobi and at least 16 other counties. Lethal ammunition, rubber bullets, tear gas, and water cannons were used.

Police had reported that at least 11 people were killed, 52 police officers injured, and that 567 arrests were made. The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights reported at least 10 fatalities, 29 injuries, 37 arrests and two abductions. OHCHR had also received reports of looting and damage to public and private property by unidentified individuals in multiple locations.

Ms. Shamdasani said it was very concerning that these latest incidents had come barely two weeks after 15 protesters were reportedly killed and many more injured in Nairobi and other parts of Kenya on 25 June. United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk renewed his call for calm and restraint, and full respect for the freedoms of expression, association and peaceful assembly. It was essential that legitimate grievances at the root of these protests were addressed.

Police had announced an investigation into earlier incidents. The High Commissioner repeated his call for all reported killings and other alleged violations and abuses of international human rights law, including with respect to use of force, to be promptly, thoroughly, independently and transparently investigated. Those responsible needed to be held to account.

Under international human rights law, intentional lethal force by law enforcement officers, including with firearms, was only to be used when strictly necessary to protect life from an imminent threat. The Office stood ready to support the authorities in Kenya in addressing these challenges, including in the investigations, Ms. Shamdasani concluded.

Israeli Offer of Voluntary Movement of Gazans

In response to questions on reports of Israel offering voluntary movement of persons from Gaza to other countries, Ravina Shamdasani for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said that the reports raised concerns of forcible transfer. The concept of voluntary transfer in the context of the current situation in Gaza was very questionable.

Update on Avian Influenza in Cambodia

Shagun Khare for the World Health Organization (WHO) said that this year, Cambodia had reported 12 human cases of avian influenza - or bird flu - H5N1 infection to WHO. There was one new case reported yesterday. Eight of these cases had been reported since June. While this was a marked increase, based on available information, all these cases involved exposure to sick poultry or contaminated environments. WHO continued to assess the risk to the general public to be low, and low to moderate for people like farm workers, who were exposed to the virus through their work.

WHO was supporting Cambodia in responding to this outbreak. In addition, it routinely monitored the risk these viruses posed and published a monthly assessment of zoonotic influenza viruses, and also conducted in-depth assessments of the pandemic risk of these viruses. WHO was working with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) to conduct a joint risk assessment.

Announcements

Christian Lindmeier for the World Health Organization (WHO) said that a WHO Information Network for Epidemics (EPI-WIN) webinar was scheduled for tomorrow, 9 July, from 1 p.m., entitled “Managing heat, strengthening public health: Preparedness for mass gatherings in a warming world”.

Tomorrow, the first meeting of the Intergovernmental Working Group (IGWG) on the WHO Pandemic Agreement would be held. In May 2025, the World Health Assembly adopted the agreement to strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness and response. Through this resolution, the Assembly established a working group to draft an annex to the agreement on a pathogen access and benefit sharing system, to enable safe, transparent and accountable access and benefit sharing for materials and sequence information. The outcome of this work would be submitted to the Assembly in 2026 for its consideration. The group had one year to go, and tomorrow was its first meeting. The opening sequence of the meeting on Wednesday and closing sequence on Thursday would be live streamed.

Catherine Huissoud for United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said UNCTAD would soon release the July issue of its Global Trade Update, which would focus on the latest facts, figures and development in the global economy, mainly over the first quarter and with nowcasts for the second quarter of 2025. The first part of the Update would show that global trade had continued to expand in the first quarter of 2025, led by an increase in imports in the United States and exports from the European Union.

The second part of the Update, entitled “Policy Insights”, focused on the risks posed to competition and consumers by the highly concentrated digital market. This was published in the context of the ninth United Nations Conference on Competition and Consumer Protection, which was being held this week in Geneva. The Conference was reviewing United Nations principles in these fields and discussing how to implement them in different countries. This was a very important conference and an opportunity to highlight what was happening in the digital context.

Rolando Gómez, Chief of the Press and External Relations Section at the United Nations Information Service (UNIS) in Geneva, said the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres had wrapped up a short trip to the BRICS summit, where he delivered, on Sunday, an important statement on artificial intelligence, saying that the technology could not be a club for the few but needed to benefit all, and in particular developing countries, who needed to have a real voice in governance of artificial intelligence. Yesterday, Mr. Guterres delivered a statement on the issue of the environment and global health, warning that our environment was being attacked on all fronts. During the summit, he also held several bilateral meetings, including with the Foreign Ministers of Türkiye and Iran.

The Secretary-General had issued a statement expressing deep sorrow regarding the flooding in Texas, where the death toll was rising. He would deliver a statement today at 5 p.m. Geneva time to mark the thirtieth anniversary of the Srebrenica massacre.

The Human Rights Committee (144th session, 23 June-17 July, Palais Wilson) was concluding this morning its review of the report of Viet Nam. Next Thursday morning, at 10 a.m., it would hold an informal public meeting with States parties.

The Human Rights Council was continuing its fifty-ninth session, which was due to close tomorrow, and was voting on pending resolutions.

The third and last part of the 2025 session of the Conference on Disarmament would officially begin on 28 July. The date of the next public plenary meeting of the Conference, still under the presidency of Malaysia, would be announced at a later stage.

The AI for Good conference led by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) was starting today at the Palexpo conference centre and would continue until 11 July.

[Announced after the press briefing] UNAIDS’ new report, “AIDS, Crisis and the Power to Transform”, would be launched on 10 July. The report showed the impact that the United States funding cuts were having globally on the HIV response. UNAIDS estimated that if the world did not act, there could be an additional six million new HIV infections and four million AIDS-related deaths by 2029. The report highlighted the measures some countries were taking to fill the gaps and sustain the response into the future. However, for many, that future remained uncertain.

An online launch event would be held on Thursday 10 July 2025 on 11:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. The event can be accessed here (Meeting ID: 940 3779 4528; Passcode: 222800).

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-ANNOUNCEMENTS-

WHO, Christian Lindmeier with Shagun Khare:
• First meeting of the Intergovernmental Working Group (IGWG) on the WHO Pandemic Agreement – 9 - 10 July 2025
• WHO EPI-WIN Webinar: managing the heat: strengthening public health preparedness for mass gatherings in a warming world - 9 July 2025 13:00 – 14:15 CEST
• Update on Avian Influenza in Cambodia


-TOPICS-

IFRC, Tommaso Della Longa with Sami Fakhouri, IFRC Head of Delegation for Afghanistan
• The Red Cross Red Crescent response to intensifying population movement as Afghans return from Iran

OHCHR, Ravina Shamdasani
• Situation in Kenya